Unknown unknowns as existential risk. was UFO as G

UFO as Global Risk
Alexei Turchin, expert on global catastrophes of Russian Transhumanist Movement
 
Version 0.912, 30 March 2010.

Abstract
In this article are discussed global risks i.e. risks that could lead to the complete extinction of mankind, associated with the problem of UFOs. Although the author is on 90 per cent sure that the UFOs are some common phenomena, the remaining 10 percent are forced him to consider these risks seriously. In the paper is suggested almost complete list of possible hypotheses explaining the nature of UFOs, including a number of new hypotheses (crown discharge around human body, ships from other dimensions covered by the shell of liquid metal, alien nanorobots, conspiracy of suppressed unconscious parts of self, parasites-symbionts from unknown forms of matter, bugs and viruses in the Matrix, etc.) and assessed the reliability of each of the hypotheses and the risk that relates to it. I consider several factors of global risk that may be associated with UFO (intelligence, energy, specific form of toxicity, informational effect, global power), based on observational data. The work is intended for a wide range of readers, as well as for anyone interested in existential risks.
This work does not reflect the official position of the Russian Transhumanist Movement, or of any other organization and is only my personal research. Permalink: http://www.scribd.com/doc/18221425/UFO-as-Global-Risk
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The Russian version of this text is accepted to be published in March 2010 issue of  Anomalia journal.
Translated from Russian, Russian link: http://www.proza.ru/2009/07/12/52


We are workers of COMCON-2. We are allowed to be  called  ignoramuses,  mystics,  and superstitious fools. There is one thing we are not allowed: to underestimate danger.  And if there  is suddenly the odor of sulfur in our house, we are simply obliged to assume that a horned devil has appeared somewhere nearby and to take appropriate measures right up to  organizing national industrial production  of holy water.
Arkady and Boris Strugatsky, The waves extinguish wind. (1984) http://lib.guru.ua/STRUGACKIE/engl_volny.txt

Contents
Introduction 5
My position 8
Impending confrontation 9
Use of term 11
Risk factors associated with UFOs 12
Possible explanations of the nature of UFOs and the associated risks 18
First level of  hypothesis 22
1. Hoaxes 22
2. Erroneous observations 23
3. Hallucinations 23
4. Rare coincidence 24
5. Simultaneous operation of these factors: mystification, convergence, and hypnosis 24
Second level  hypotheses 25
1. Sleep paralysis 25
2. A new optical phenomenon 28
3. Physical processes that affect human minds 28
4. UFOs are ball lightnings 32
5. UFO as conscious global hoax 38
6. Secret government developments 39
7. Mystification from the suppressed sub-personalities 44
The third level of hypotheses, which require a radical change in our picture of the world 46
1. Extraterrestrial spacecraft or landing apparatus 46
2. Artificial Intelligence, created by another civilization 49
3. Extraterrestrial nanorobots 52
4. Pointed hallucinations 57
5. The materialization of thoughts 64
6. Interdimensional ships from parallel world 68
7. Travelers in time 73
8. Electrical life form 73
9. Variety of parapsyhological events 74
10. Parallel civilization 77
11. The hypothesis of the collective unconscious 77
12. Random observations of another world 78
13. Activities of the Earth's ancient civilization 79
14. UFOs are glitches in the Matrix 79
15. Manifestations of multidimensional world 85
16. UFOs are manifestations of the properties of holographic universe 86
17. UFO as manifestations of synchronism 87
18. Quantum fluctuations and Boltzmann brains 88
19. Other 90
20. Plurality and interference hypotheses 91
21. Possible hypotheses to explain the behavior of the UFO 92
General considerations of the risk of a UFO 95
1. Do not provoke! 95
2. Lack of UFOs as a factor in global risk 95
3. Attack on UFO 96
4. Different intelligence 96
5. Psychological catastrophe 99
6. UFO Connection with catastrophes 99
7. Eschatology of UFO cults 100
8. Catastrophism in the statements of ufonafts 100
9. UFOs and the Government 100
10. Police of UFO 101
11. The war between the UFO 102
12. Riskiness absurd behavior 103
13. Adjustment for human properties 103
14. Table of different properties, united in the idea of UFOs 104
15. Help in progress 107
16. Leakage of Technologies 108
17. Wrong flow of funds to the UFO 108
18. The psychological portrait of a UFO 108
19. UFOs and the extinct civilizations 109
20. Negotiations with UFO 109
21. Evolutionary traces of the impact of unknown creatures 110
22. The degree of indifference UFO 110
23. What information does give us a well-known facts about UFOs? 111
24. Space disaster and the power law distribution of energy UFOs 111
25. Hypothetical weapons that people can use against UFOs 112
26. UFOs and the blood 113
27. Bayesian estimate of the probability of real existence of UFOs 114
28. Study of UFOs in the USSR 117
29. UFOs and parapsychology 117
30. Concealing information about UFOs Governments 118
Cognitive biases in the risk assessment of UFO 118
Best cases 120
Critical analysis of various cases 121
Critical analysis of sources 125
On crop circles 126
Literature 128



Introduction

             This work is part of a more general study of global risks that threaten the survival of mankind, undertaken by me in recent years. See my book "The structure of global catastrophe. Risks of human extinction in the XXI centaury". But in that book I discuss only scientifically proven risks.
I consider the problem of UFOs not as "ufologist", but as another example of the possible global risks, and apply to it the same methodology as for other global risks. In terms of the principles of analysis of global risks it is sufficient only one evidence of a threat, the evidence, the credibility of which is not very large, to justify study of the question, because the stakes are very high. And with regard to UFOs, we have a lot of evidence, some of which are quite convincing, and many of them talk about the seriousness of the threat.
The main issue which is studied in this paper is: can UFO be a source of global risk or somehow affect the development of the situation in the area of global risk. Under the global risk I have in mind the risks that could lead to the complete and irreversible human extinction. See a brief overview of these risks in the article of Nick Bostrom Existential risks. Analysis of human extinction scenarios and related hazards. (http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html) There are about 10 main scenarios: the risks associated with natural disasters, as well as the development of human technology, first of all, the AI (artificial intelligence ), nano and bio technologies. According to estimates of researchers, these risks are greatly underestimated and have about 50% chance at 21 century. I have written two books and several articles on the topic of global risks, and translated about a dozen articles on this topic. See my web site www.humanextinction.ru. However there is no known to me literature on the subject of global risks associated with UFOs.
In the literature on UFOs there are some works about risks associated with UFOs - but theme of global risks dumped in a pile of risks to observers, the threat to national security and the threat to all humanity.
In this paper, we focus only on the latter aspect. One of the major studies on the risks of UFO is report of COMETA, compiled in 1990th by a group of retired French military. However, it is considered as the basic version alien origin of UFOs, which arrived and with families live in the asteroid belt. The obsolescence of such approach is already understandable, because the mind capable to fly across interstellar distances is able to radically transform its carrier, moving it beyond the biological limitations. In addition, the topic of global threat is present in the book of J. Keel Operation Trojan horse, in the works of Jacques Vall;e, in the book of Azhazha Ufological security.
In this work, in addition to focusing exclusively on global risks, I am going to apply the analysis of future developments, which have become available through the work of transhumanists scientists, namely that of the Technological Singularity, of superhuman artificial intelligence, of nanorobots, of observation selection and the Matrix. I'm also inspired by the methodology of analysis of complex problems from the book of H. Khan On thermonuclear war, which is considering various strategic situations of confrontation, without going into technical details of the individual missiles.
A conservative approach to security issues is radically different from the conservative scientific approach. From the standpoint of science something is considered to be non-existent, while it is not proved, but in terms of security, we must use the precautionary principle, which compels us to take as real existence of some risks, before the contrary is proven. That is why the military has always shown more coordinated interest in UFOs. But apparently, the military concluded that UFOs did not threaten the security of nations - in part because of the hostile UFOs were extremely rare, partly because all the same nothing can be done by the military. And in doing so, they assumed that this will continue - but this is incorrect.

Change of situation

In the next 20-30 years the situation in the study of UFOs must change. Based on current trends in technological and political development should be expected that soon whole world will be covered by a network of continuous monitoring, such as modern street cameras. The carrying capacity of the channels of communication and resolution of optics will be such that it will make possible to monitor every inch of the earth's surface. In addition, the quality authentication of such channels would allow to distinguish the true message from fakes. One of the possible objectives of such a deployment of a global system of observations is the prevention of nanotechnological catastrophe, in the spirit of the grey goo, and tracking of hypothetical terrorists. Telescope located on the orbit will be able to instantly track any suspicious light source on Earth. As a result, the possibility of objectively observing the UFO will appear. Alternatively, all observations will be found to be optical illusions, hallucinations, dreams and errors of observations, or will be detected at least one new class of phenomena.
You can calculate the average density of observations of UFOs on Earth. If, on average, 1 out of 20 people saw an UFO, and the average person looks at the sky 1 hour a day, one UFO is in 400 000 hours of observations. I suppose that the observed average area of land is about 10 square km, so we must come to the conclusion that every hour at least one UFO occurs in an area of 4 million square kilometers, in other words, in every hour on the earth may be observable 100 UFOs, and since the average time of observation is a few minutes, then every time on the earth are 5 UFOs. Similar computations about ball lightning leads to similar result with an accuracy of order of magnitude. This makes the task of monitoring the UFO technically soluble through a system of land, air and unmanned space probes that could quickly be sent to the scene where is found a suspicious tag. This has already mastered the technique of observing gamma-ray bursts, there satellites quickly turn their telescopes to the point of observation. Such a system is easy to deploy in the fields of England to make sure who is actually doing crop circles. (Mufon finances the establishment of such telescope in the vicinity of the New York airport, which could be quickly automatically rotated in the direction of unknown targets, whose marks are likely to be received from radar.) Even if UFOs are investigated by military or non-military projects and those projects are in hiding through the veil of secrecy and disinformation, the development of civilian surveillance systems can result that such secrecy can no longer be hold. In case of discovering of UFO to it could be sent unmanned radio guided devices in order to make more accurate measurements, without risking pilots' lives and not wasting time on a long training mission. Unfortunately, this is overshadowed by the fact that in the same time are developing technical means for more accurate forgery of photographs and video. In addition, in the next 10-20 years will be developed means of reading thoughts and images from human brain. This will provide new way of witnessing UFOs: you can download those images that witnesses saw from their memory, and can much more accurately distinguish between fiction and lies; it will replace the regressive hypnosis in the so-called cases of abduction and will visually compare the experiences of different people,  it will also help answer other questions of parapsychology, like memories of past lives. Future superhuman artificial intelligence, which we can build in the next 10-30 years, will also be interested in the UFO problem, and probably will be able to discern it, and possibly somehow to exploit it.
For detection of UFO can be used satellites, as well as specially calibrated ground-based radars. Satellite radar could continuously scan the fields of England for the appearance of crop circles, and it may be cheaper than deploying a network webcams, and is available to individuals. A pair of satellites can continuously shoot the Earth's surface and detect unidentified objects in the air, on the differences in data surveys. Other satellites could take the night half the earth in order to detect the "wrong" light sources. We live in an era gigapixel cameras used at the telescope, and after 10-20 years their power is to increase by another several orders of magnitude, which makes continuous monitoring of the Earth's surface from space even cheaper. Automatic recognition will simplify the processing of this information.
My position

Let introduce my personal position. I have never seen an UFO. At 90 percent, I am confident that all UFO phenomena can be described by known physical phenomena. I spent a lot of effort to expose a few tricks that are used to fool people by creating the illusion of them being involved in a wonderful event, namely: the focus of Coulomb egg (an egg really can be brought vertically through the effect mass-centre shift because yolk protein is heavier and falls down), the focus of twist spoons hands (this is due to the leverage effect and a dramatic heating of bent spoons in the fold through the provision of mechanical energy, thereby drastically increasing its malleability), the focus with a spoon in the paper , which then turns away from the paper (it depends on  order of expand the paper), the focus of the supervision of the images in the crystal ball (this is something like hypnogogic images encountered in the visual cortex, tired after long looking). Several times I have seen aerial phenomena that have been able to identify, although in the beginning they seemed to me to be extremely mysterious. For example, once we were in the village Mehovitsy in 2001, I went with a group of friends at night in the garden and began to offer see something mysterious, they were afraid and refused to go far into the darkness. Suddenly, I saw that far away in the forest stands vertically narrow red glowing cone in the form of an isosceles triangle. It glowed a uniform red color and was on the sense of, 10-15 meters high. This could not be anything human, especially since I knew that there is nothing in the woods. I then very scared and realized that I haunted. But then I made a few steps aside and realized that it was a rising full moon, visible between the trees, and trees had cut it in such a way that it was visible only a cone. Such incidents have convinced me that much of that seems inexplicable, latter find a prosaic explanation. (However, this case can be interpreted as the effect of the probability shift, as will be discussed further in connection with the description of the parapsihological UFO hypothesis.) This induction used by Menzel to cancel all the unusual phenomena to the errors of observation. However, I have over the past several years, researched the problem of global risk - ie, accidents, which may lead to the death of all mankind. Most of these risks are unlikely events with very large consequences. Assessing the risks associated with significant cognitive biases, caused by human psychology. See the first article E. Yudkovski Cognitive biases affecting judgment of global risk http://singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf and Toby Ord, Rafael Hillerbrand, Anders Sandberg Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for
Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes http://arxiv.org/abs/0810.5515, as well as my book The structure of global Thus, despite the fact that I am in critical attitude to the possibility of real existence of UFOs, I believe that we should explore the associated possible global risks - so as we'll explore the risks of hadron collider, although the chance is estimated as less than one per million. In doing so, I will rely on the so-called Bayesin logic. It is, roughly speaking, is that at the beginning we propose a number of possible hypotheses, then, as new facts arise, the weight of different hypotheses varies. Another aspect of the review of the hypotheses is this Occam razor: that is, other things being equal, we should choose the most cheap hypothesis, requiring a smaller number of improbable assumptions, however, if this method has always been true, the hypothesis of a flat earth would be the easiest and most preferred, as said Vallee, while actually the Earth is a ball involved in 14 simultaneous movements.

Impending confrontation

Sooner or later will be proven one from the entire set of hypotheses about the nature of UFOs. Thus, the study of UFOs is in prethreshold condition. Previously, it seemed that truth will be soon revealed. Someone is waiting for the recognition of UFO existence by the government (disclosure) and the publication of archives. Someone waits alien landing apparatus. I believe that the threshold will be reached when our science and technology will can interact with the world of UFOs as equals - that is to be able to reproduce the same physical phenomena that underlie their existence and mode of travel. This will mean the ability to influence them and cause them harm.
Time to reach the threshold depends on the nature of the threshold, and the speed of our development. And it can be in 20 years, and after 200. This threshold may be two stages: the first of its level - the creation of sustainable ways to detect a UFO (the proof of existence), and the second - ways to influence them and use their "space". It is unlikely that the gap between these two stages will be large: if we know what and where to look, and believe that it exists, it is strongly stimulate research. In addition, if we accept the exponential nature of technological progress, it also makes closer any two of its stages.
It is possible that a threshold event will be a kind of manifestation of the UFOs themselves - for example, long hovering of a large and strange object over a major city, which will be thousands times shot on camera and shown live, or a major injury to people from a UFO - the destruction of several passenger aircrafts or large fire. In short, an event of such magnitude as the Sept. 11 attacks, which cannot be ignored and which get governments to move from total disregard of the problem to total war (it is typical model of government response: just as the U.S. government has behaved in relation to the economic crisis in 2008 - the transition from assurances that all right to allegations that we are on the verge of complete financial disaster, was instantaneous near Sept. 15, when bank Lehman Brothers collapsed.)
In any case, the reliable socially important detection of the phenomenon will mean an immediate confrontation with UFOs. Official recognition of this class of phenomena will lead to the deployment of powerful programs for their study and, in particular, on how influence on them. Of these methods are most promising nuclear weapons, microwave radiation and powerful electric discharges (development of nanotechnology will help dramatically reduce the price of production of such weapons and to increase their scale). As well as the discovery of new physical effects could help affect UFO. The goal of the attack on the UFO (which I regard the biggest possible mistake) would be to ascertain the extent of their intelligence and understanding the degree of risk, identify and use the physical principles that they use, and limit their ability to influence people and technology and in general, create any risks. In other words, people will try to control new unknown factor, as it has always happened in human history, and conquer a new world. If UFOs are some physical or mental phenomena, this confrontation would mean that this phenomenon will be adopted by science and technology and repeatedly reinforced.
It is clear that UFOs, if they are living beings, can resist these developments, depending on their forces, their understanding of human intentions (maybe false) and how real, in their view, is the risk to them by human actions. Their failure to act, by contrast, may be due to the fact that they have no power to resist, not understanding that people tend to conquer every available space, or linked to the understanding of powerlessness of people against them (for example, if we hunt them with bows and arrows). In the case of a high understanding of human motives and techniques, they can decide on preventive action to prevent the infiltration of people into their world. (Or completely withdraw from our world ... but we always go after.)
It may even be some thoughts written in this book will be just the threshold which we should not overstep. In other words: the one who really reveals the secret of the UFO could immediately put the entire world in jeopardy.
Thus, our formal discovery of the world of UFOs might lead to confrontation between the UFO and people, and the higher is intelligence of UFOs and closer people are the level of technology development at which they can influence their world, the higher will be the sharpness and suddenness of the confrontation.

Use of term

 In this text the term UFO will mean the entire class of objects that create the observed phenomena, as well as the space where these objects are moved, and what is behind them. This use of terms by default implies a presentation of the commonality of observed phenomena. But if it is a set of unrelated with one another hoaxes, optical illusions and errors of recognition, the only common ground there is that it is the urban legends. However, the maximum risk is related to the situation where UFO actually is a real phenomenon, and speaking of UFOs, we will be referring to this phenomenon.
The term UFO reflected the fact that the problem of unidentified flying objects is a problem of the borders of our knowledge. In my book Gnoseology of catastrophes, published under the title War and another 25 doomsday scenarios I have shown that the end of the world is also a problem of our limited knowledge about the world and the consequences of our actions.
 Discussion of each case of sightings of UFOs has its pros and cons, which can be deepened to infinity, without leaving the operational scope of strategic theory. We will proceed from the fact that if there was of smoke a smell in the cockpit, this is not evidence of a fire, but it is a good reason to assume the possibility of fire and the pilot must act as if the fire exist, until otherwise is proven. Similarly, we consider the many cases of observations as if they were true events that actually took place as it is reported, with, however, holding in mind the idea that in the future, these messages can be refuted.
The risk of UFOs will exist until all the unexplained phenomena in the history will not be refuted with 100% certainty. Obviously, this is impossible. We must consider unproved cases as circumstantial evidence. A single inexplicable event could destroy our world picture, and hence completely change our assessment of the risks of global catastrophe. Any ordinary catastrophes occur, in most cases, when the model of reality, which have, for example, pilots of a plane, strongly differs from reality itself (for example, they misjudge the altitude); percentage of catastrophes accounted for by an irresistible force of nature or a technical problem is much less. Error in the global picture of the world is essential to global catastrophe.
"Unidentified object" is always a state of a pair - of the subject and the observed phenomenon. The risk is that once we meet an unidentified object, we do not know what to expect, and in our model of the world appear puncture. Once the object is unidentified, we do not know what to do with it. Whether it is an exaggerated response, firing guns on a flock of birds, or if it is ignored, assuming alien ship a cloud of swamp gas. Most accidents occur when the model of the world is very different from reality, which leads to erroneous decisions. Unidentified object of any kind means a malfunction in the model of the world, which increases the probability of disaster.


Risk factors associated with UFOs


There are a number of hypothetical factors associated with UFO, which may cause harm to the people and lead to the human extinction:

A) The intelligence of UFOs

B) The energy available to UFOs
 
B) The specific method of virulence, ie, causing death, accessible to UFO

D) Global impact and penetration ability

E) The informational impact of UFOs
 
If any of these factors is great enough, the UFO can use it for at least stop the technological progress on Earth, or as a maximum for the destruction of mankind.
Consider what we know about these factors from the physical manifestations of the UFOs.

  A) Intelligence. UFOs, according to reports, are able to draw circles in the fields, to respond to hand gestures, or blinking of lights of machines, copy the flight path of aircraft. However, we did not find anything extraordinary intelligent in their  behavior. For example, they never write complex texts (even if you take the testimonies of contactees, they reflect  only level of knowledge of people and times when it was written). It is important to emphasize the difference between intellectual technologies on which they may be made, and their behavior. For example, there is a huge difference between the complexity of the organism and the complexity of the mouse movement. Most relevant here are three metaphors - the behavior of  UFO looks like a behavior or children, or intelligent animals like dolphins or apes, or souls of dead people (if we take the description of the world, offered by some esoteric theories, such as Tibetan Buddhism, by Robert Monroe or by M. Newton, according to which the souls of the dead retain some attachment to the earthly plan and try to continue those activities to which they were tied in life. For example, foo-fighter during the Second World War, which flight in the form of light balls with allied fighters, and even took part in air battles, may be souls of the recently deceased pilots who do not want to leave their comrades.) In this case UFOs have not sufficient intelligence to plan a sharp global attack or conquer the world in the spirit of Skynet or some form of pure artificial intelligence, independent from the medium - the same way as described in article of Yudkowsky Artificial intelligence as a factor of global risk http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/ai-risk or in my article Is SETI dangerous? http://www.scribd.com/doc/7428586/Is-SETI-Dangerous
The main objection to this is that this intelligence had a long time to do it. (Incidentally, the legends about the man in black and the relationship of governments with the UFOs originate from the fact that it is true and we are already conquered. But if so, then it is not clear why the UFO fly over the earth, as if they were investigating something. However, the references on the nonexistence of global catastrophes in the past is unacceptable because of the observation selection. See my article Why antropic principle stops to defend us. Observation selection and fragility of our environment.  The fact that flying saucer allegedly suffered disaster in the desert is evidence of their low level of intelligence. Thus, the UFO could be some form of life, called plasmoid, advanced in the ionosphere, or underground, or in a parallel world. In this case, the UFO will have the fate of whales and the attempts of resistance by their intelligence can only be local (but be large by available energy). If UFOs are the one's like children who are allowed to play on Earth, the attempts to harm them, or at least the theoretical possibility of causing them harm will be brutally suppressed by their parents. However, these same parents could make UFO not to damage the Earth reserve. Even if UFOs is a kind of animal plasma, there in the environment where they live still may be some proportion of intelligent beings. And if these being may be postsingular - that is, with intelligence, infinitely superior to man, remains an open question. In addition, we can assume that UFOs are glitches in the Matrix, like Agent Smith; the main consequence of this discovery is that we live in a simulated world, and its owners may switch it off at any time in its sole discretion. In general, the existence of UFOs as some special beings should not only mean a new form of life, but also the existence of a new medium for the dissemination of information and energy. Just as the existence of stars means not only existence of huge balls of gas, but the existence of a giant empty space and planets. And if we find such environment, get inside it and begin to master it, then we can find there something very dangerous. For example, we may encounter with the option of SETI-attack (ie, load Hostile Artificial Intelligence, which uses our planet for future replication), which applies, however, between parallel worlds. Or we will engage their attention by our actions, which until then had not been put on our planet (similar to how by radio METI we can draw attention of aliens from outer space). Or provoke some unknown processes in this environment.
The main feature of superintelligence is that it is not tied to its carrier. As a result, if we are talking about the intelligence of a substance or of a computer, we immediately have in mind that this is a limited intellect.
The next point concerns to the level of control. Either all "UFO space" is under unite control (as it would be, for example, if all the manifestations of UFOs have been one of the interstellar expedition), and then the observed level of intelligence is the highest in this medium, or in this environment, there are beings with different levels of intelligence but control of the creatures with the highest intelligence is not pervasive (example: children playing in the woods, while their parents sit in the house). The second option is for us the most dangerous, because is possible a mistake by adopting the observable manifestations of UFO intelligence as the maximum level, we can create (after some actions) interest or anger from the more intelligent beings.
The absurd and "stupid" behavior of the UFO might be a cover of a single act that they commit, and which they really need, but which is drowning in information noise created by all sorts of meaningless flyovers, hoverings and abductions. This is basic of disinformation. Keel and Valle extensively wrote about it.
I also believe that the higher is an intelligence, the greater is its control space: compare intelligence of cats, man and the state. Or compare the intelligence housewife and Napoleon. To affect the entire Earth in a finite period of time, you need a high intelligence (with limited other resources). Will it be the intellect of one UFOs or their collective intelligence of a certain community, or the forces behind them depends on chosen hypotheses about the nature of UFOs.
Perhaps, however, that the real resources of the forces which are behind the UFO is not as great as it seems, and their aim is to give the people the impression of their strength and power. For this they create the illusion of the existence of large vehicles or myths about the almighty gods or aliens. In fact, the impression of flying huge devices are the projections caused much weaker beings whose secret could be revealed long ago if not for social reasons.
Intellect is a versatile weapon. If superhuman intellect wants to do us harm, it will have thousands ways to do it - from entering our computer network to the application of unknown physical effects. Likewise, a person has dozens of ways to destroy the anthill and the ants have nothing to do with that. Except for one thing: do not provoke!
 
B) Energy. J.Vallee estimated energy levels of radiation of UFOs: Esimates of Optical Power Output in six cases of Unexplained aerial objects with defined luminosity characteristic (JSE, 1998) http://www.jacquesvallee.net/bookdocs/optics.pdf. In one case, was calculated luminosity of large disk, brighter than sun, and it was from 2500 to 30 000 Megawatt in the visible range. Even if we assume that the Tunguska meteorite was actually an UFO explosion, those levels do not exceed levels that are accessible to people with nuclear weapons. However, the ability of UFOs to quickly move and emit bright light requires access to a powerful source of energy unknown to us. So it can be assumed that the UFOs have access to levels of energy that can destroy life on Earth.
In terms of energy, it is important not the amount of energy that emit an UFO, or which they use for instant acceleration, but the fact that they have access to unknown to us source of power, from which can consume enormous power within the small volume of the UFOs. The existence of a new energy source automatically means that there may be a fundamentally new type of weapon, just as the mechanical energy implies the existence of the bow and arrows, the chemical - of explosives, nuclear - of a nuclear bomb. Application of energy to mass destruction could take the form of a huge explosion, or directional effects (rays). About UFO exist claims that they are capable to explosions, and to emitting of the directed energy beams.
It also includes a number of UFOs. If the energy of a single instance is small, but their number is enormous, then the total energy and the impact will be sufficient for a global catastrophe. In reality, rarely observed more than 100 UFO simultaneously. Usually at least tens. However, it would be premature to assess their total number as small. They can be hidden, invisible, or at the call to come to the aid of other worlds.
Pure form of energy is an explosion. Over the past 12 000 years was, according to some reports, 4 huge explosion, attributed to comets (from Clovis to the comet crater Mayuko in New Zealand http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahuika_crater). This number of explosions and their localization is out proportion to what should be expected on the basis of astronomical data. This will be discussed later.
Also because the discovery of new energy source can be an opportunity to create new types of weapons trafficking. Or if some people will gain control over individual UFO, they can use this energy for personal or terrorist purposes.
 
C) The specific impact. It was found that the UFO may temporarily switch off electric systems, creating strong beams of microwave radiation, paralyze people by the light, create a sense of horror and cause burns, including radiation injury. In addition, the UFO is attributed to the ability to abduct people and even airplanes, or teleport objects. (An ability to teleport is enough for global risk - imagine teleportation of nuclear warheads or a Spanish influenza virus.) The number of cases where UFOs caused real harm, is not very large, and proven cases are even less. Among these cases, it should be noted the loss of Norfolk squadron in the First World War, the death of the group of Dyatlov, attacks on the Brazilian island Corales where UFOs caused burns to people, a few cases of the detection of empty ships, the death of cows from the ball lightning, the destruction of crops in the fields. All these cases were fairly local in their impact (not to mention that there are rational explanations for some. For example, the death of Norfolk squadron can be attributed to the first use of chemical weapons, which exactly in the same year - 1915 were used first time in Germany, the death of group of Dyatlov by snow wind mistaken for an avalanche and the subsequent panic, etc.) However, the existence of such means of destruction in the arsenal of UFOs suggests that they may be adapted to global fatal impact. Moreover, an important factor in the global risks posed by UFOs - it is their ability to quickly move across the surface of the Earth and the nonexistence of any way to protect people from them. That is the fear of witnesses was associated primarily with an awareness of impotence in front of this phenomenon. In addition, it is alleged that  UFO could be a source of radiation - in the form of rays, and in the form of contamination radionuclides.
Usually a small number of manifestations of aggression UFO offer as proof of their global security. But there is not much connection between aggressiveness and global risk - for example, bullies do not constitute a global risk, but pollution is. I would even say that aggressiveness at the grassroots level of the UFO is a guarantee of our global security, because it shows that their level of intelligence is not high and they can be outmaneuvered and cheated. But here the main thing is their level of intelligence, attitude towards people, and the degree of self-monitoring of their manifestations. See more about "Police UFO".
 D) The global impact and penetration. In addition, an important factor in global risk created by UFOs is their ability to quickly move across the surface of the Earth and the nonexistence of ways to protect from them. That is, they can penetrate any bunker and find every person, no matter where he hid. In my study of global risks ("The structure of global catastrophe"), I showed that the main feature of any global risk is not in the intensity of exposure, but the ability to affect the entire Earth's surface over a finite time. No wonder the fear of witnesses was associated primarily with the realization of powerlessness before the UFO phenomenon. One can imagine a situation where only one "penetrating power" will be sufficient for global risk - for example, if a UFO would create panic among people all at once or circulate normal biological virus. In addition, about UFOs it is said that they are able to respond to people's thoughts, which means that they can feel where there are people, and thus find them. As a result, they can detect all people on Earth, and in case of attack there will be not survived people.

E) Information effects. It is the impact on the feelings, thoughts, perceptions, belief systems and the mood of the people which finally change their decisions. UFOs may be voluntarily or involuntarily become the initiators of accidental nuclear war. For example flying under a certain angle they can create the impression of a missile attack. (Keel describes the case in Greenland, where the base in Thule discovered Soviet missile attack, and then link to it was interrupted.) In addition, they are able to disable the electrical circuit, or possibly lead to unauthorized launch of missiles, as well as interference to radio communications, which can be seen as manifestations of enemy activity on the radio prior to the missile attack.
Keel believes that UFOs meaningly mystifies us to give us religious or extraterrestrial belief systems, and thus they can impede our progress or understanding of some important things.
They can interfere in politics, influencing the minds of politicians (Keel believes that they have influenced Hitler; Lincoln received information during the spirit s;ance.) Some people hear voices that encourage them to commit crimes. Sometimes, changes in mood that affects a group of people and influence their performance.
Combined action of these factors. It is easy to imagine a situation where each of the 5 mentioned above factors are not lethal enough to pose global risk, but they pose risk collectively. For example, they do not need very high intelligence to direct the allocation of energy on our cities. However, separately neither the level of intelligence sufficient to detect the cities, nor the level of energy, enough to burn cities, do not constitute threat of extinction. This may be something like a furious attack of herds of buffaloes. Although individually nor their intellect, not force does not equal to the intelligence and power of a man with a gun, he cannot oppose them.
The central question for us is whether there is any reality behind UFO. From the standpoint of Bayesian logic, we have tens of thousands of evidences, each of which gives a very small increase in information because there is possible an alternative explanation. In doing so, we cannot take into account the level of state secrecy, which can conceal anything.
Yet it would be reasonable to assign the probability of the reality of UFOs, not less than 10 per cent and 5 per cent of them should be left to the fact that this is a very intelligent beings, and not just plasma pets.
Hynek said that in regard to UFOs, there are three levels of hoaxes: a) Observer-forger, b) State disinformation c) are UFOs, which are not implemented because they are really not eager to communicate about itself anything reliable public. Even a crashed saucer might be fakes, created by UFOs, accidentally or purposely. I will not be surprised if they have no engines, or they are full of absurd details.

Possible explanations of the nature of UFOs and the associated risks

Here we review different hypotheses about physical nature of the UFOs. Separately stand hypotheses about the psychological nature of the UFO - a system of goals and motives of conduct, which may have an UFO. Nature of hypotheses about UFOs is that by drop of some observations and by sufficient number of unproved assumptions, one can think of many very different hypotheses, which will be nice to go for the remainder of material fact.
Each of the hypotheses implies a certain mathematical expectation of probable harm. It is equal to the product of the probability of this hypothesis, the likelihood of disaster if the hypothesis is true and the expected number of victims at the same time - minus the probability that if this hypothesis is true, there will be additional ways to mitigate other global risks (in the spirit of aliens will save us). As a result, the picture varies greatly. The significance of the very probable hypothesis with low expected loss (error of observation) is comparable with the value of unlikely hypotheses with great potential harm (extraterrestrial nanorobots). For example, in the case of errors of observation, we have the truth of the conjecture about 0.5, while the number of victims of 1000 (we choose this number as the number of people who could become doctors, but instead became ufologist and spent time on the junk science - or the number of people who could would be saved if the money is not spent on ufology.) Then the expectation of the number of victims will be 500. In the case of extraterrestrial nanorobots truth of the conjecture would be 0.001, the probability of disaster - 0.5, and 6.5 billion will be the number of the victims. In other words, expectation would be around 3 000 000 victims. That is the expected loss from this hypothesis is 6 000 times higher, despite the fact that chances of its genuineness are 500 times smaller. (Under the probability of hypothesis, we will understand the rational expectations based on known data, in the spirit of Bayesian logic. In other words, if I say that the probability of this hypothesis is 90 per cent, I mean that it belongs to a class of my hypotesis, which out of every 10 only 9 are true.
A good hypothesis should talk about the place of their origin, the physical nature of UFOs and to their behavior on Earth. In principle, it could be made "complete" list of hypotheses, using conflicting definitions: Earth / ethereal, etc., but such division is too crude and can lead to a loss of border options. So I chose those hypotheses that have at least some kind of internal logic and rely on any evidence. Incompleteness of the list of causes that here cannot be correctly attributed to the prior probabilities of hypotheses, as required by Baisian logic. But in any case, to correct list and probability are still far away.
So, as I said, I attribute to the probability of 90 % to natural explanation of UFOs. To all other hypotheses, I attribute to the probability of about 1%. This amount is not obligated to not exceed 100 % because a few extreme hypotheses can be true simultaneously (for example, some UFOs might be extraterrestrial vehicles, and some - glitches in the Matrix). The very assessment of 1 per cent accurate to the order of magnitude, but it does not matter, because after multiplying by the huge number of potential victims, which is also highly uncertain (depending on how we assess the value of life for future generations), we can still get a quality result main feature of which will be a dramatic difference of the result in the case of the trivial hypothesis.
There are three levels of hypotheses: the usual explanation, explanation, requiring introduction of a new factor (the military tests, the global gag, seismic lights, ball lightning), and explanations, changing the picture of the world (aliens, The Matrix).
This table has rather arbitrary numbers of probabilities which I assign to different outcomes.



Hypothesis My assessment of the probability of this hypotheses Probability that global catastrophe will occur, if this hypothesis is true Probability of global catastrophe
Conventional explanations (a mixture of optical effects, hoax and error monitoring) 90 % 0 0
Military exercises 2% 1% 0.02%
Global hoax 2% 0 0
Suppressed parts of self 2% 0.1% 0.002%
Ball lightning 2% 0.1% 0.002%
Psyho-physic effects 2% 0.1 % 0.002%
Extraterrestrial ships 0.1% 10% 0.01%
Extraterrestrial nanobots 1% 50% 0.5%
Interdimensional ships 1% 50% 0.5%
Bug in the Matrix 1% 50% 0.5%
Creatures from other forms of matter 1% 50% 0.5%
Synchronism bugs 1% 10 % 0.1 %
Other 10 % 10% 1%

Outcome Approximately 3.1%


These hypotheses should be considered as an attempt to brainstorm. It should be noted the risk of reductionism on the one hand, and charm - on the other. An example of the reductionism is simple cynical expression - in the spirit of all men lie, while the other - indulgence to the desire to see a perfect world, and human role in it as a valuable and meaningful. In addition, the puzzles are attractive and encourage people to think as much as possible about original hypothesis.
Note the difference between the explanatory power and the truth of the conjecture. Classic example of the convenient explanation for the hypothesis is statements in the spirit of light of the moon reflected in the marsh gas. In the presence of a certain skill, you can explain anything. Proved theory opposed to explanations has predictive power.


First level of  hypothesis


Actually, all hypotheses of first level of complexity can be described as zero-hypothesis, and it combines a number of trivial ideas. It is that simple UFOs are  explicable by natural causes, and the whole UFO phenomenon is the massive public self-hypnosis. (Just soon after the opening of X-rays by the British, the French opened the Y-rays, and have published a series of articles about them for several years, which referred to each other and to new experiments - but ultimately, no light really was found.)

Natural explanations of UFOs are:

1. Hoaxes

Human tendency to cram imposes natural restrictions on the level of knowledge available to mankind as a whole, and thus the maximum possible level of security, since the majority of accidents occur due to incorrect models of reality. And as it is possible hoaxes of arbitrarily large scale, we cannot be sure in anything until the end. In other words, it is absurd to assert that all crop circles are mystification, but a flight to the Moon cannot be mystification. This imposes an upper limit on the reliability of our knowledge, and hence the minimum attainable level of global risk. Namely, if we believe that dozens of people can come together to make complex mystification, then why should we be confident in the statements of another group of dozens of people that, for example, Hadron Collider is safe? Even if one of the 10 000 people tend to gag, that is, receives a pathological pleasure in deceiving others (and by encouraging their sense of importance, as the hoax drew far more attention to people than the usual activities - compare writing fiction novels and documentary story of unusual adventures), the golden billion has 100 000 hoaxers which is enough to cover all observation of UFOs and other paranormal phenomena. Man cannot live without jokes. And this is just the hoaxer, acting out of love to art, as in the novel Magus of Fawles. And in many cases the hoaxer may have commercial, sexual and other manipulative interests. Access to the miracle is a powerful source of authority over men. So, we must distinguish between hoaxes by the number of people involved - one, two or many, and on the objectives - whether they are hoaxes simply as entertainment, or hoaxes which have certain goals. If it is a deliberate hoax, in which participate large groups of people, it is already conspiracy theory, and it must be considered in the next group of the complexity of the hypotheses.

2. Erroneous observations

This is erroneous observations of known phenomena and aircrafts. The risks here are primarily focused on the fact that the military would try to shoot down incorrectly identified object - and the possible consequences of such actions.
In addition, a group of meteors, moving under a certain angle, can be taken for ballistic missile attack and lead to the beginning of accidental nuclear war. This applies primarily to Russia, where there are areas with poor coverage of long-range detection means, as well as India and Pakistan, who are so close together that they will not have time to verify the information.

3. Hallucinations


On the hallucinations, we'll talk more in the section about the sleep paralysis.
At least some observers may feel more full hallucinations, associated with latent form of mental illness or short-term mental illness, or even be a full manifestation of psychosis. Also, hallucinations may be associated with short-term external causes - chemical poisoning (ergotism, gasoline vapor, a malfunction of liver, mushrooms, drugs) or sleep deprivation, illness, fever, fatigue, etc.

"It is known a story about a cook on a ship, who suddenly passed away, that impressed all the passengers of the ship. Were made usual in such cases sea burials, i.e. the body was lowered into the sea, and that same evening, many of the passengers saw the deceased chef coming over the ship and hobbling on one leg. Needless to say, all this plunged into indescribable fear, and that many of the passengers spent an anxious night. In the morning it cleared up. Instead of the cook a tree stump was lashed to the stern of the ship."

Bechterev. Collective or mass illusion and hallucinations. http://www.psylib.ukrweb.net/books/behtv01/txt08.


4. Rare coincidence

For example, I once looked out the window and saw that it reflects not only my room chandelier, but the next room chandelier! As if it was not reflected in the window glass, but in some surface, which is far ahead of the window, where you can see both windows of the home. But then I found out that the chandelier from the next room at first is reflected in the glass of cupboard in the corridor, which connected the two rooms, and a form of the two rooms, and only then is reflected was reflected in the window of my room.

5. Simultaneous operation of these factors: mystification, convergence, and hypnosis

I can tell the following story. Once I walked with my friend in the park of Kolomenskoye. We were in the hills behind the main temple and went out among the oaks. Between the trees I saw a white wall, which by reason of the coverage was similar to the passing away surface of water. I decided to joke on my friend - and told her: Look at the lake ... and on the boat on it (speck on the wall). She was very shocked, because what she saw and my words convinced her that she saw a lake, but wisely, she knew that we are high in the hills above the river, and no lake can be here. I then told her that I joked, but she told me that, she feels strange herself: she had altered state of consciousness from the cognitive dissonance. This is reminiscent of some patterns of Milton Eriksson for instant trance. (And also the case when Don Juan showed Carlos Castaneda bush stuck with the package and convince him that this is animal beating in agony.) Is not difficult to imagine that if the visibility conditions were slightly worse, but lake was watched a whole group of people who could exchange the replicas, they will enter into a collective self-hypnosis and see stable image of the lake. The psychological effect is well known, consisting in the fact that people are more suggestible by the group in which they is located, when by what they really see.
The important point about this story about the lake is that if I decided not to expose my mystification, and maintain it, then here would be the TWO witnesses of a lake in the middle of the park. In addition, as soon as the first failure in the observable of the reality happens, suggestibility increases dramatically, to the point that one can create himself hallucinations.
An interesting effect that may explain the group observation, is a collective self hypnosis. Imagine that in a certain group of people is subgroup of people with high ability to visualize (most probably, children and young women). When one of them said I see a red circle, others easily visualize it on a background of dark objects (sky), but they think that they see it actually. Then someone said: I see a ray - and everyone else too visualize the beam, but think that the beam has appeared. For example, Jung in the book about UFOs describes spirit seance, in which 4 of those who present have seen the appearance of glowing ball, but he saw nothing.
In this case UFOs are failures of perception, and as such may be relevant as a measure of the reliability of our perception. Malfunctions of perception can lead to wrong decisions and catastrophes.

Second level  hypotheses


These hypotheses require some additional assumptions, which generally do not conflict with the modern picture of the world. In doing so, these hypotheses are not merely allege that some of the observations explained by a UFO, but that all observations explained by the hypotheses, no higher than those in complexity.

1. Sleep paralysis

This hypotheses intend to explain UFO by combination of the following effects: short periods of sleep or self-hypnosis, accompanied by a feeling of vibration, hallucinations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closed-eye_hallucination), dreams seen against the backdrop of dark objects (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner 's_cinema), sleepy paralysis, the feeling of separation from the body and levitation, movement in a space, and the presence of strange shapes. The main proof of this theory is that the typical time for observing UFOs is at sunset, and around 3 am, when the natural peaks of demand in a dream tend to occur. See the works of Robert Monroe. It would be interesting to ask about whether the sound which occurs during the sleepy paralysis is the same as a sound, supposedly issued by a UFO. This could tell a man who had experienced both these conditions. I have been about 10 times in my life in the state of vibration felt on the verge of sleep and wakefulness. Indeed, this sounds like the sound of the transformer. Sometimes, the sound becomes very loud and at the same time there is pressure on the body. Often, this occurred within the sleep, that is, before the awakening. For example, recently I dreamed that I go to my apartment, and suddenly I heard the sound of vibrations and at the same time it seemed to me that I fly above the floor. I thought And again vibration and levitation halted, and after a few seconds, I woke up. On another occasion, I had afternoon nap on the bed in a monastery in Switzerland. Suddenly I heard a very melodic sound, like a transformer hum, and at the same time felt that I was raising. At the same time in a dream I understood, that this sound is the soul of a girl that I loved, and I am approaching her. After a few seconds, I woke up. In yoga, this sound is known as Nada sounds (by coincident the name of the girl is Nadia, but I dont know it in the time of occurring), and its most usual manifestation is the usual ringing in the ears. In Nada yoga you should hear in this sound, and then it becomes louder, gradually turned into a loud roar and then followed by separation from the body. I tried hear in ringing in the ears at night, and indeed it became louder and it appeared fine overflow. From point of view of neuroscience vibrations, and certain types of tinnitus, as well as the effect of sudden explosions (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploding_head_syndrome) audible on the verge of sleep and wakefulness can be explained by micro-seizures, like epileptic, in areas of the brain responsible for hearing (temporal lobe). Of course, if hearing in to such sounds, they can grow, through stimulation of the areas of the cortex, and when the sound will grow, then there is some generalization of attack, it will spread to the body balance and positioning, and there is a sense of separation from the body, or weightlessness. Monroe describes that the vibration was accompanied by vivid images and the light ring, moving along the body. This coincides with the history, when a geologist saw how in his tent entered luminous ball, he felt completely paralyzed and heard the sound emanating from the ball, like a transformer hum. As soon as he was able to stir hand, the ball disappeared. This description is very similar to the description of sleep paralysis and vibrations. Also included are all cases where people wake paralyzed and saw a figure of alien near the bed. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleep_paralysis ) The study Alien Abductions, Sleep Paralysis and the Temporal Lobe (http://www.susanblackmore.co.uk/Articles/ejufoas00.html) show that there is a correlation between the fact of the abduction and a penchant for effects of sleep paralysis, but there is no correlation between the fact of abduction and temporal lobe lability, which is contrary to the findings of Persinger that it was responsible for the hallucinations of the abduction.
But because the true cause of the vibration is still unknown, it is possible to explain the opposite, namely that the vibrations are caused by some external source of power or influence on the brain.
Note that there is also a very rare class of dreams that are able, however, cause a persons strong delusion - namely, those dreams when he was dreaming about the same place where he is in reality. I myself have experienced it several times before awakening (one of such types of sleep is a dream in which a man just think that he waked up and start to do some planned action). It should be noted that the dream that imitating reality, often occurs when something important is happening to the dreamer in reality, but he could not wake up (for example, alarm calls, and in his dream he shut down it). This may be a communication between a dream and reality. For example, in one such dream, I dreamed that I go in the same room where I slept, and hear how the alarm clock ticks, while in fact it was drip of water. Due to this acoustic communication sleep may reflect real-world events that could explain many near death experience e.g. when a man sees himself floating near his body, and correctly reconstructs the evolution of the situation, based on the words of surrounding people, whom he hears through the dream. The same can probably also occur in some UFO observations. That is, a person will dream about the same locality, in which he fell asleep (but better lighted, as in dreams are rarely seen dark objects), and in this area will be some additional facilities. That is how you can explain some cases where a man thought that he had lit a bright light - in fact, he started has a dream in which he saw the same area in which he is placed, but brighter. All this, however, does not explain the collective observations (only if the second party has not decided to help first so as not to upset him).
Some reports of UFOs can be false memories - some people cannot reliably distinguish between memories of real events from memories of dreams, or even just a fantasy.
The validity of this hypothesis is limited only by the fact that it is applicable only for observation by one person.
Risk here can only be associated with the fact that sleepy paralysis suddenly collapses on man, make responsible decisions, such as the head of State or the duty officer at the remote missile launch.



2. A new optical phenomenon


It may be inversion in the atmosphere invented by Menzel; or light transferring waveguide in the air, emerging on the border of the three media (ie, a layer of warm air between two layers of cold), can transmit images and bright sunlight over long distances.
The reflection in the very close glass of a distant object can also be difficult to overcome to create the illusion, as the move near the glass does not change the angle at which we see reflection of distant objects, which agrees with the observation of a real object in the distance. Perhaps, this effect may explain the well-known UFO sighting over the islands of Jersey, in La Manche in 2006, when the luminous ellipsoid seen through the cockpit.
The validity of this hypothesis is limited because it does not explain the observation of cases of physical traces in the form of "planting".
Risks are associated with provocation of war.


3. Physical processes that affect human minds


The physical phenomenon that has hypnotic and hallucinogenic effects, may explain some observations UFOs - it may be underground gas emissions, such as those that influenced Pythias in ancient Greece, the epidemics of ergotism (in form of clouds of spores of fungi) - that is poisoning by lysergic acid derivatives, including LSD, from the fungi that damaging wheet (rust), or the impact of strong electric fields associated with underground piezoelectricity arising in the quartz rock, with strains and is also accompanied by a visible electrical discharges in the spirit of the lights of St. Elma or ball lightning and, perhaps, producing gases that can burn or support neurotoxic effects, as well as telluric currents - that is, the distribution of electrical charges on the surface of the Earth.
M. Persinger argues that effects of alternating magnetic fields (transcranial magnetic stimulation) on the temporal lobe of the brain can cause  religious experience and sense of presence of luminous beings, similar to the experiences during epileptic seizures, ie, hyperactivity of the brain, namely, temporal lobe, seizures in which are accompanied by hallucinations and changes in mood, but not convulsions. (However, independent investigators have not been able to repeat Persingers experiments. In addition, they do not prove a causal connection: for example, they can be interpreted as the awakening of ability to see of luminous beings that exist objectively.) This may explain the sense of aura before the meeting with UFO in some cases and the sense of fatigue after prolonged contact. The states of vibration and sound in ears in time of sleep paralysis may also be something like this.
The state of paralysis can be attributed to the current of underground electric power through the body - and around of the body of the observer will see light in the spirit of the lights of St. Elma, but locate them far away as glowing objects. Even several people may feel it, and if the discharge on each of them will have a similar shape and direction, then they will all believe that they see one remote object.
In the case of validity of this hypothesis, no specific risk is expected, but we cannot be sure that very sophisticated process is sufficient to describe all phenomena. For example: UFOs are  special type of electrical discharges between the earth's crust and the ionosphere, such as sprites. Here, we should be interested in the first place, what is the maximum possible size of this phenomenon, is here possible super-eruption with global implications, as well as whether people can influence events through, for example, atmospheric disturbances (such as HAARP).
The most promising candidate for the physical processes with mental action is electrical discharge between the earth's crust and the conducting layer of the ionosphere, causing formation of ball lightning which are powerful source of radio emissions that could severely affect the human psyche. This idea was put forward by Persinger (in the form of seismic lights appearing due to piezo-effect), who found that weak variable magnetic fields may cause hallucinations of religious nature (which might be placebo effect) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Persinger) but correlation between observations of a UFO and fault lines was weak and could be explained by different population densities.
A constant voltage of 200 000 volts supported by activities of lightnings exists between the ionosphere and the Earth's surface. At the same time from the ground is flowing constant current to the ionosphere in the form of the flow of ions through Earth's atmosphere. Charge the Earth is about 3 * 10 ** 5 Ku. The energy of resulting capacitor is equal to about 10 ** 11 J (or about 20 tons of TNT equivalent). (http://www.cultinfo.ru/fulltext/1/001/008/080/253.htm) There are projects to make electric power, by creating ionized channel from the ionosphere to the ground by a laser (ionized trail of the missiles too quickly dispersed) - but it power will not exceed 1 GW, which is small: just one nuclear power reactor. There is also an assumption that the explosion of Tunguska meteorite was a puncture of the ionosphere to the Earth on the trace of the relatively small meteorite. But not difficult to assume that in some circumstances the current from the Earth to the ionosphere could increase. In addition, the variability of the height of the ionosphere charge should flock to those areas of the surface, where the thickness of the capacitor is minimal. This should further increase the tension field in the field and contribute to lowering the ionosphere and the increase in current from the Earth to the ionosphere. Although this energy is not enough to fully puncture the air, under certain conditions, a current of ions through the atmosphere may significantly increase, causing a variety of luminescence. The point where the maximum concentration of charge on the Earth's surface can either remain fixed, and move instantly. In addition, it must respond to the ionization source, such as radar stations and operating mechanisms, and even individuals, and plants. Such a process can cause crown level around your body, and / or cause a current through the body, perceived as a vibration that causes paralysis and hallucinations, as well as burns on the body. Rising from the earth flow of ions may take the form of cones (ie, as UFO rays), but they can be formed clots of glowing plasma, such as fireball (or it may be a differential field potentials of electric field, which create current in small region of air). The flow of ions from the Earth can take, probably, some objects in the air.
UFO effects are similar to the effects of elecric shock: Assessment of neurologic and neuropsychological symptoms (general weakness, pain, muscle weakness, numbness of extremities, headache, memory loss, psychological disorders, dizziness and depression) were assessed 1 month after electrical accident. 26% (30 patients out of 114) of participants noted the early neurological and neuropsychological symptoms. Most often, patients complained of general weakness and pain. (http://medicinform.net/news/news7159.htm Upon electroconvulsive therapy is also a short-term memory loss. Many of the traces on the body of victims is also similar to burns from electrocution shock. It can be assumed that the current attack is preceded sleep, in which a man dreaming that he is approaching a UFO, as it happens in near death experiences, where the patient dreams the same situation in which he is actually located.
Maybe electric shock can trigger attacks of epilepsy (at least focal), with a visions.
Discharges from ground to the ionosphere can be reinforced or modified piezoelektric effects arising, for example, from moving up and down of the earth's crust due to lunar and solar tides (owing to the UFO-referenced to the time), and even electricity in the molten core of earth, in some way penetrating the surface. Underground electricity can easily occur in areas of water sources, as land is more conducting, and in the air are more ions, or on mountaintops, where the charges flow from the ground. The existence of light flashes during earthquakes has been recognized by science only in 1967. The existence of sprites - lightnings from the clouds to the ionosphere was recognised in the 1990's.
There is also a line of psychotherapy as electrosleep (along with electric shock treatment). Electric current with frequency near the frequency of sleep rhythms when passing through the human brain, could induce respective states of consciousness. Obviously, the external field can induce currents in the human body (eg, high frequency field modulated with low frequency signals with levels of energy, which are prohibited for use in humans). It is, incidentally, that the frequency of resonance between the earth and ionosphere is approximately 7.5 Hz - Shuman resonance - that corresponds to the state of dream.
See also about binaural rhythms and their influences on the brain.
In addition, the effect of alternating magnetic fields could temporarily disable the different parts of the brain. It is known effect of the electric sound - microwave radiation causes the perception of sound in the head, and the U.S. Army even learned how to phrase by it.
Finally, there are ideas that some people may have in their body or in the brain rather strong electric fields to affect the status of other living creatures with the help of Magnetism, for example, or lull them or make them more suggestible, and even to move small objects. This may not require any special esoteric, but simply synchronized activation of neurons in the brain. In this case dramatically altered state of consciousness of one person could induce changes in status of other people or by a radio among the people they would see the images being entered into the altered state of mind. Intensive synchronized oscillation of brain occur also in epilepsy.
This leads to the idea that under certain conditions, a large group of people could hallucinate on the same subject, sent by a man with a powerful Electric Field, and this could explain many phenomena such as Fatima or poltergeist. In the latter case, the ability to create electric fields in the body and make electrosleep is under the control of the unconscious. However, evidence of this is little.
This hypothesis may explain some of the group observation, and some traces on the ground.
Risks are associated with provoking the war and the possibility of creating new ways to influence people's minds.



4. UFOs are ball lightnings


Explanation of the UFOs through ball lightning does not possess a high degree of credibility, because we do not know what is ball lightning, and it in turn can be called a small UFO. One unknown is explained through another unknown. There are about 200 hypotheses about the nature of ball lightning, and many of them look convincing. But about ball lightning is well known that some of them occur in the storm, with electrical discharges. I myself saw the emergence of ball lightning in the linear lightning channel in Moscow during the summer storm near 1997-99 years, in the direction of the Ostankino from district Airport.
The most instructive in the hypotheses of fireball is that by choosing the most salient features of observations, with a few theoretical assumptions and the structure is rather complicated theory, you can create some equally compelling (but not falsifiable) hypotheses. The same can be found in hypotheses about the nature of Tunguska meteorite (up to hypotheses that it was detonation of 5 kilometer volume clouds of gnats). Let us remember the words of Chekhov: If you are offered a lot of mean to cure a sickness, then it is incurable. Each of these hypotheses is quite convincing, until we do not see another, equally compelling hypothesis. It is told that there are between 100 and 400 hypotheses about the nature of ball lightnings. So it will be not a great mistake to attribute to each a priori probability of the truth about 1 percent.
The essence of the explanation of UFOs through ball lightning is that UFO are manifestation of an extremely rare and exotic physical processes, which, however, has in itself nothing artificial, intelligence, similar to the life or relating to human psychology and appears randomly at the confluence of circumstances.
As weapons, ball lightning is unlikely to be useful in a world where there is a high-precision atomic weapons and missiles. The main risk is that the underlying process can be scaled so that the result is a weapon, more affordable, accessible and deadly than the nuclear.
Even if some of the proposed mechanisms are not the causes of ball lightning, they may still appear as the mechanisms behind the UFOs.
There are several hypotheses to explain ball lightning, which could explain some UFOs. My ball lightning was like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13bDzNs7JQ0&

1) The first type of ball lightning hypothesis connects with a certain autonomous form of electromagnetic energy. Results in the scientific literature suggested that at least 23 explanations of this kind.  Plasmoid theories. That is of stable configurations of the magnetic fields and electric charges in the spirit of http://popovsfti.narod.ru/sharovaia.html. One hypothesis is that ball lightning is toroidal vortices of magnetized plasma, which supports itself through the magnetic field. http://nt.ru/tp/mr/shm.htm  It is another hypothesis, suggests Smirnov, dealing with the problem of ball lightning for many years. In his theory of ball lightning nucleus is connected cellular structure, something like air-jel, which provides a solid frame with a small weight. Only the carcass ply - it threads the plasma, rather than a rigid body. And the energy supply of ball lightning entirely hidden in the huge surface energy of such a microporous structure. Thermodynamic calculations based on this model, in principle, does not contradict the observed data. Or ball lightning as an area of low pressure with an excess of electrons, surrounded by areas of high pressure with a positive charge or something like a bubble of high-molecular compounds, silica, or even molten metals. Or something like quazi-atoms where quantized orbits of electrons around the positively charged area. Or oscillations of clouds of electrons and nuclei around common center. Ball lightning as a maser amplifier or ball lightning as crown discharge, gradually extending to the surface of the ground after a line lightning strike. Resonant vibrations inside ball lightning of pair of magnetic dipoles Electrons orbit and hold positively charged center of its magnetic field. The theory of magnetic node of Fern;ndez-Ranyad Fractal in plasma Plasma crystal Ball lightning is an aerosol of microscopic batteries Ball lightning is weak ionized gas, which is formed Bose-Einstein condensate and / or photons are trapped in the plasma density http://arxiv.org/abs/0811.4640. In the fireball are formed Cooper pairs, plasmons and superconductivity http://arxiv.org/abs/0902.4596  Stable solutions of quantum hydrodynamics, quantum objects in a stable self-sustaining electric field http://arxiv.org/abs/0807.4600  Electric discharge on the surface of the liquid http:arxiv.org/abs/0804.0981  Resonant atoms capture electromagnetic waves http://arxiv.org/abs/0708.4055  Charged ball of plasma, the charge on the surface of which balances the atmospheric pressure http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2668  Shock wave, blocked by electric friction caused by the internal laser illumination http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2668, fractally condensed matter http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0512245 . Giant van der Waals forces between the clusters of molecules and Ridber atoms http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0509212  Magnetic eddy basins http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0411153  Nontrivial equilibrium configurations of electromagnetic fields. http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0312122  Some kind of electrical discharge http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0306158  Circular current in the high temperature superconductive air http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0102012
 
2) Non-autonomous forms of electrical discharges or resonant structures, energized by thaunderstorms. P. Kapitza http://www.sinor.ru/~bukren14/kapica_sh_m.doc  believed that between the cloud and the ground there is a closed resonator in which there are fluctuations in centimeter range. These vibrations create standing waves near the ground, where reflected wave interfere with falling wave. In this area air puncture occurs and are formed clouds of plasma. The size of this cloud is that the frequency of natural oscillations corresponded to the frequency of radio waves (radio waves length should be 3.65 times the diameter of the area.) Proof of this is that ball lightning radiate more energy than it is in a cloud of plasma of the same volume, and thus require constant fueling. Therefore, they have a constant diameter and soar low over the ground and disappear instantly. They penetrate into homes by wire or chimneys, which serve as waveguides for the short-wave radiation. This hypothesis seems to me quite convincing. It can be assumed that similar resonance oscillations occur between land and atmosphere, resulting in a luminous balls without thunderstorms. This was already discussed above.
 
3) Explanations related to the chemical reactions in the air. Russian wiki: Another theory explains all the observed phenomena by thermochemical effects, occurring in a saturated water vapor in the presence of strong electric field. Energy ball lightning is determined by heat of chemical reactions involving water molecules and ions. The author of the theory is confident that it provides a clear answer to the mystery of ball lightning. This is good theory to explain the different luminescent fogs. Stakhanov coined the cluster theory of ball lightning. In it ions are surrounded by water molecules, slowing their recombination.
4) Alternative forms of ordinary matter. Ridberg matter and http://grani.ru/Society/Science/m.45129.html  Ridberg atoms are the atoms with very high quantum number, ie, the electron is very far from the nucleus. Any such atom is like a hydrogen atom. Such atoms can condense, forming a sort of solid material, but with a density of air. This substance may be slightly luminous or transparent. This hypothesis could explain the outpouring of molten metal from a UFO.

5) The combustion of various objects - from the silicon in place hit by lightning, or clouds of methane, or chunks of methane hydrate. It looks doubtful. Fireball, which I saw was high above the ground - hundreds of meters. Clouds of molten silica, intertwine in toroidal vortices generated at the point of impact linear lightning: Combustion of methane, in the twisted toroidal vortex.

6) Thermonuclear reaction. Cold fusion. In one paper is suggested a chain reaction of combustion of radioactive phosphorus, the speed of the radiosctive decay of which it seems to depend from the degree of ionization (as decay occurs due to radiation of an electron, and the presence of a dense electron cloud prevents the escape of an electron from the nucleus.) Ratis, L. Fireball as a macroscopic manifestation of b-decay of radioactive nuclei of phosphorus bound. (Letters ECHAYA. - 2005.-V.2, 6.-S. 64-79 b- ). Or, the hypothesis of oscillations of the cloud of electrons in the plasma, which creates a region of thermonuclear reactions in the center of the sphere. Electron gas oscillations in plasma. Theory and applications http://br.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0306157. Thermonuclear reactions catalyzed by superheavy particles of dark matter. http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0406092.

7) Trapped light. Wiki: Ball lightning is incoherent optical spatial solitons, whose curvature is nonzero. In translation into more accessible language ball lightning is a thin layer of highly compressed air, in which circulates in all sorts of directions normal intense white light. This light at the expense of creating electro-friction provides pressure on compressed air. In turn, the compressed air acts as a light-guide, which prevents the emission of light in free space. Self-light-limiting in type of wispering galleries Torchigin VP http://zhurnal.ape.relarn.ru/articles/2002/093.pdf

8) Area of breakdown between the two conducting channels in the atmosphere. Something like a spark gap that occurs in the middle of the channel of normal lightning - the current from top and bottom comes to the gap with little resistance on plasma remaining from the passage of lightning, but the presence of gap limits the maximum force of the current throughout the channel, preventing a normal lightning. Anyway, the impression I had from my observation of ball lightning was that its brightness and the consistency was like a spark created in the line of lightning.

9) Alternative physical theory. Accretion of matter at the microscopic black hole Little Black Holes: Dark Matter And Ball Lightning http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0212251, magnetic monopoles, antimatter annihilation, opening to another world, a spontaneous creation of energy from the vacuum, teleportation of matter from stars through the wormholes in the space-time. Manifestations of the ether elektrogravity theory and defects in the structure of the vacuum Clouds excited by  heavy neutrinos Hydrino http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blacklight_Power Temporal holes through which you can see past state of the linear lightning. Appearing of addititional dimensions or energy transfer from parallel worlds.
 
10) The optical traces in the eyes of the observer from the observation of linear lightning, phosphenes of different types.

11) Seizures in the temporal lobe caused by a magnetic field of normal lightning. Could Some Ball Lightning Observations be Optical Hallucinations Caused by Epileptic Seizures? Gerald Cooray and Vernon Cooray http://www.el.angstrom.uu.se/meny/artiklar/ball lightning.pdf   

12) Line lightning caused luminescence of something, which existed before there was lightning, but which was not visible and do not interact with matter. Maybe they were even living creatures, which feed electrical discharges of conventional lightning, and thanks to the accumulated energy becomes visible - and die, exploding?

Certainly, at least some sightings of UFOs may be observations of ball lightning. The main problem is not in the physics of processes (number of proposed alternative forms of matter and energy to explain the BL covers all the needs for the "creation" of hypotheses about UFOs), but that UFOs exhibit systematic behavior and able to interact with people, whereas any random physical process should appear more randomly.


5. UFO as conscious global hoax


Information on UFOs, according to this hypothesis, is injected in the society in order to distract it from the real social problems and to cover economic crises, wars, political machinations. While it may be no single universal conspiracy to spread false information about alleged observed unusual phenomena in the sky, the idea of this over and over again appear, depending on the circumstances. For example, some say that in the Soviet Union articles on UFOs were published when authorities are going to the next price increase. In the United States injection of information on UFOs were used to divert attention from other military developments.
Risks here are associated with, for example, that public attention is diverted from the really important social and other problems as well as the risks of inadequate behavior of people in a state of hysteria, especially if it is missilemen, or other person taking action. Even if to deny the physical existence of UFOs, there is no denying of the fact of its mental existence - the existence of people who have experienced the horror, confusion and hallucinations in a totally unexpected moment. And we may underestimate the frequency of such disruptions in normal people. Example is nearly disastrous panic during the radio show War of Worlds of Orson Wells. It is felt that with the UFO hysteria - it is purposely maintained special quiz to catch fish in troubled waters. That is, the creation of controlled chaos. However, the theory of systems is well known that the properties of interacting systems have a tendency to flatten out, and thus chaos comes back into the power structures (because they are not aware of hoaxes), and lead to a loss of integrity of management that, at least, distract the authorities from other solutions to global problems, or forwards them to the wrong problem at the expense of truth, but in the worst case, lead to total paralysis of the global power, when the real problems will arise on the horizon. Hoax may have occurred even if there is some real phenomena, which further confuses the situation.
Jacques Valle believes that the secret services have made models (including full-size) of real UFO in order to arrange provocations to psychological warfare, reconnaissance, or to direct the horror the enemy on the battlefield.
Finally, we can consider that the UFO phenomenon is supported by the yellow press and its writers in order to improve their circulation and to make money. They exploit people naive belief in miracles.
In the USSR, the UFO was considered a means of bourgeois anti-Soviet propaganda.
There is also a theory that UFOs is the transport vehicles for the transfer of the drug of mafia, which I find ridiculous.
The total of all these theories is that the myth of the UFO purposely created and used by one group of people to manipulate the other.
In addition, if the government agencies are involved in mystification, they lose the ability to recognize any of the actual events as they think that all events will be hoaxes (possibly of other government agencies or foreign secret services), and thus we are vulnerable to real events.

6. Secret government developments


The next hypothesis is that UFOs are classified government military developments. In this case it is necessary to recognize that the government possessed the secret of invisibility, antigravity, moving in the subspace and unlimited sources of energy. It is not clear why it should have to hide it and spend funds on conventional weapons, which in this case had no value. In addition, the manifestations of UFOs did not especially evolved over time, which is unusual for terrestrial military developments, and some have been observed in such antiquity, when such developments could not be in principle: before WW2 or even in XIX centaury. So that this hypothesis seems to me questionable. But if it is true, then now very dangerous weapons exist, over which there is no control, civil or international, and it has aggravated the existing risks of global catastrophe.
Some think that governments have something like Tesla towers as weapon. There is a hypothetical possibility to enhance natural process of earth-ionospera discharges (discussed above), creating a standing wave between the earth and the ionosphere. Apparently, even Tesla tried to do it with the help of his towers. There is also an assumption that the HAARP installation in Alaska is a variant of geophysical weapons, which could cause discharges from the Earth's ionosphere to the ground from remote locations using an accurate selection of resonances - and with modern computer techniques, even drawing circles in the fields with more and more accurate details. All the hysteria about alien may only cover the project.
Finally, such resonance can hold weight on a machine or natural object (a huge drop of water or electrify the cloud of gas).
The mere existence of such weapons would be a global risk, as it would be worse than nuclear for the accuracy and speed and could destroy all the people one by one by targeting them from ionosphere. And also, it would dramatically destabilize nuclear deterrence, as the attack can be initiated immediately - and against HQ, including the presidential aircraft (decapitation strike), and against the taking off missiles.
 In addition, permanent disruption would lead to the loss of the ionosphere and its protective properties for living things.
Yet this phenomenon is likely to be submitted in the form of amorphous pillars of light, rather than a clear, orderly moving discs. It can explain some phenomena in the form of a strange cloud of glowing fog.
Of course, this leads to thoughts about the possibility of establishing a psychic weapons - that is, artificial hypno-gun able to broadcast narcotize hallucinations to large groups of people. And this radiation can be transmitted through the resonance between the earth and the ionosphere. Such weapons could be a global risk, but it would be relatively easy to escape if it electromagnetic in nature.
Poluyan did interesting review http://intermonney.narod.ru/ufo/polyan.htm He think that UFOs are government secret weapon and use ultrasound for movement. Main objection here is that UFOs were observed before the Second World War, and that the existence of UFOs would make unnecessary the development of huge numbers of air and space technologies, based on the old principles of movement. As a result, the state would have had to spend enormous resources obviously useless for secrecy - secrecy, but from whom? Indeed, other countries, too, could know about such devices and also develop them. Finally, if this is indeed the military apparatus, it is not clear why they had been openly shown as UFOs.
The main risk is linked to the fact that rapid and imperceptible mean of transport may be ideal carriers for nuclear weapons and could disturb the strategic balance, allowing anonymous preemptive strike to the rear on the enemy, or to be whipped and cause aggravation by the violation of international borders, as well as they could carry out other effects proportional to the magnitude of opened new physical effects.
At least some UFOs later occurred to be tests of military equipment which in itself does not violate the laws of physics, but whose optical manifestations seemed strange to an unprepared audience: this is the launch of missiles from the Plesetsk in Russia. And that was the reason for secrets.
 Note that the lower is level of development of hypothetical military UFO, the closer they are to hoax (such as balloons, which imitate the UFO and used for exploration), and the higher it is, the closer it to existence of a second civilization (hidden in the depths of intelligence in this case), hidden from ordinary people and possessing a superweapon. And farther on this scale of development of military UFO, the less likely they exist, but the higher risk associated with them.
There are assumptions that at the point of intersection of multiple radar beams arises ionized plasma. This cloud reflects radio waves and radiates in the ultraviolet. "The intersection of two flows of microwave radiation produce plasma. These plasma formation emmits light in the visible or infrared ranges. Plasma reflects radio waves (e.g. interrupted radio communications with the outside into the atmosphere during landing of spacecraft). Thus, the scope of the work on the microwave - radar waves, and there are notorious UFO. Hundreds of UFOs have been observed properties, which suggest that they have the nature of the plasma that is composed of ionized air molecules. It is understandable why many UFO cause response echoes on radar screens - this effect can create plasma formation in the atmosphere. Be explicable and oscillation of the magnetic needle near a UFO, and interference with the reception of radio and television broadcasts. Sometimes also, that during the observation of a UFO people have damaged eyes, as happens with burns ultraviolet rays, as is well known that plasma clouds emit intense ultraviolet rays. (Wernher von Braun pointed out that the formation of the UFO mystery is connected with a mystery of ball lightning. Note that with some manipulation of miniature ball lightning can be obtained in an ordinary microwave oven!) Military radar are secret equipment. Because of this, owning real information for several decades they trying to fool the masses head various tales. UFOs are often sighted in the areas of fighting, near airports, space centers, nuclear power stations and depots of nuclear weapons - precisely where the military radars operate continuously. The above-mentioned effect of artificial formation of plasma objects in the atmosphere are widely used in military equipment to create false targets observed in the radio-infrared and visible, as well as to interrupt the enemy's radio communications. The plane, which cross flows of microwave radiation, would lose radio contact and orientation in space. Its is possible to infer the target. Unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, computer controlled, in general, may lose control. In contrast to high-energy laser radiation, which forced a large part of its energy to spend on the ionization of air, microwave radiation passes through the air without loss. At the point of intersection of two streams of microwave radiation is one phase of their overlap and, as a result of resonance, the power is doubled, and this causes the ionization of air, i.e. the formation of low-temperature plasma. The fairing is made from aircraft radiotransparent materials. As a result, a powerful microwave radiation of radar not only to envelop the enemy plane or cruise missile by plasma cloud intercepting radio communications, but also penetrates into the plane, disrupting the work of guidance equipment by currents. At one time it was even expressed the idea of creating such a way as ball lightning inside a flying airplane. The effect of artificially formed by reflecting radio waves in the plasma layers used for work over the horizon radar phased array (the same used plasma should always flies in the atmosphere of meteorites). In light of all this are clear characteristic of a UFO high maneuverability, great speed, rapid acceleration and sudden stops, as well as the ability to hover in the air and be absolute quiet. Stream of microwave radiation can twist as you like. In addition, a variety of pictures you can draw on the clouds by the laser. In this regard, recall the famous experiment "Philadelphia", when the Americans in 1943 for the first time used a powerful magnetron. Experience has shown side effects of microwave radiation on the physical and mental health. Actually, even now, when the ship starts to work the microwave radar, a crazed cats jump overboard into the sea. http://noogen.borda.ru/?1-4-0-00000014-000-0-0-1157141361, a quotation from the newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda".
And further: "In the early 80-ies in the Research Institute of Thermal Processes (now the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Keldysh Research Center) was developed microwave plasmogenerator (using MHD technology), which were installed for the tests on aircraft and missiles (including weather missiles). When this generator was on air around an aircraft or missile was ionized - and eventually around the aircraft is constantly created and maintained by a cloud of plasma (which may be the most diverse color, type and degree of lights). This is some of UFO. http://www.nootelepat.narod.ru/announcement.html A cloud of plasma can also be used to create the electromotive force (hydromagnetic effect) and for the supersonic motion through the air (in the plasma speed of sound above) and may be as sound protecting  (silence) system.
However, the source of this information appears questionable.
The very existence of UFO hysteria was advantageous to the military, who hid under this veil their tests. But as a result they can bamboozle themselves, believing that their tests due to all the cases, and missed something important.
There are also allegations that the crashed UFO supplied military with technology to create their own UFOs, and most of the observed phenomena are observations of such devices, which are reverse-engineer. The main problem here is that if UFOs are perfect, then how they could suffer an accident, and if there are made with superior technology, how they could be rebuild? (Imagine trying to reconstruct a modern microprocessor by 50 years ago science.) And if a UFO likely to suffer an accident, then reconstructed UFO should be more even more likely to suffer an accident. Even if such a leak of technology has occurred, it would rather be intentional by the owners of technology, rather than random. And then it is not real technology. In addition, if UFOs have long visited the Earth and are not inclined to "clean up after themselves," it would have to accumulate huge cultural layer of their debris. Finally, if you are vulnerable to shoot down a UFO, it is unlikely they would be so irresponsible to fly in the zones of air defense.
Another possibility for the secret development - creation of airships, camouflaged as a UFO. Since the rumor is widespread that UFOs should not be shot down, because it could lead to "invasion of aliens", then exist benefit from camouflage vehicles as UFOs. You can do this by giving them deliberately odd shape, for example, as a flying triangle. Such a triangle is a rigid airship, arranged on the principle of an accordion, and can be folded when you need to develop greater speed. Such apparatus is filled with warm air from engine, the same as so called thermoplan. (See http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/). As the mask you can use Tesla transformer - in order to cause a corona discharge around the aircraft. For movement, you can use a smooth deflation of warm air from the envelope that you can do almost soundlessly (torch hidden inside) - it will create a jet propulsion. Plasma level and smooth surfaces make this thing almost invisible to radar. As a result, you can quietly enter the territory of a potential enemy, to mystify him, to make exploration and to inflict the first nuclear strike. If the game opens, the enemy then could start to shoot down any UFOs by any means, and can reach "real" UFOs, if any exist, with uncertain consequences. History knows many cases of use of mythological beliefs for military activities and the conquest of power, the most famous of which is conquest of Mexico by Cortes, which was taken as a god.
In order to intimidate the enemy (eg Soviets) the mere fact that a super-weapon, is enough simply do not give conventional explanations to strange observations. The enemy will have to assume that these sightings of UFOs should be observations of superweapon. It would spend needless effort, trying to recreate it.



7. Mystification from the suppressed sub-personalities


We know that for some people exists phenomenon of splitting of consciousness that is they have a few individuals inside them, who in turn come to the surface and have an independent memory. They may not know about each other. On this was written the classic novel Sibilla, based on the description of real clinical case. The main character had 19 different personalities. Moving from one person to another and back is seen as a syndrome of lost time. For example, Sibilla once sat in class in third grade and suddenly just moved to the fifth grade - having lost two years of her life http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/_, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sybil_(book). Lost time is characteristic also for the meetings with UFOs. In addition, people could developed a state of somnambulism, for example, one person traveled 17 km on his car to commit murder while in a state of somnambulism. Then he returned to his bed and fell asleep. In doing so, he left many clues and police found him. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homicidal_somnambulism
Further, it is known that many contactee gave their hand in the management of something, then it automatically write an extended message. That something is most likely part of the unconscious, as its knowledge of astronomy are usually at the level of knowledge of the individual (although it is impersonating envoys from e.g. Venus). Many other types of psychotherapy, such as voice dialogue, or an active imagination, allow to enter into contact with the individual parts, but they claim to be not part of the individual, but for God, a higher Self, dead souls, etc.
Thus, we can assume that some people are entirely under the authority of its separated parts who pretend to be aliens. This can manifest itself in two ways: either these people are able to forging documents and photographs in state of somnabulism, and send them themselves - and so there are all sorts of Majestic-12, Ummo and other hoaxes. (Robert Monroe describes such a case: as a child he was very much needed $2. He awoke in the morning with absolute certainty that two dollars are under a plaque in the garden. He went there and found them there. Monroe interprets it as a gift from the spirits or materialisation. However, there are more prosaic explanation: he stole the money in the state of somnabulism, and hid himself them in the garden (as awake state of his conscience did not allow them to steal). This could explain many other tricks - for example, while it seemed that he commits the astral journey, he could be able in the state of somnabulism to go somewhere and actually find the information that he then, as he thought, found in astral travel. However, no evidence of this hypothesis yet. )
Either of these parts of self seized power over a man suddenly in daylight, and show him a dream landing of UFO and abduction, for example, and in the meantime, these people in the state of somnabulism create the material traces of the landing. For example, an American saw UFO landing, was abducted for a short time and then at the scene were found traces. However, in the trunk of his car was found an open bottle of oil, which, according to investigators, he could use to create hoaxes. He could not remember where he got this bottle and why it was opened (so as to go with an open bottle of impossible). This explains the mechanism of stains and bites allegedly abandoned people - this is the same mechanism as the occurrence of stigmata, ie, deep self-hypnosis.
This can explain the poltergeist phenomenon, when a person enters in a very short time is a state of somnabulism and performs some action, then do not remember this. However, this does not explain all phenomena, which have been reported - like explosions of light bulbs or pouring from the walls water.
The hypothesis of the mystification of the suppressed parts of self could strengthen the assumption that such parts of self have increased ability to hypnotic suggestion on other people, and thus also leads people into trance, force them to believe in their experiences, and even experience hallucinations. See the experiments of Tart on mutual hypnosis of two persons. If further develop this assumption, we come to the whole ocean of collective unconscious, as will be described later.
In studies of epilepsy are known cases when people entered the state somnabulism from the awake state. It has also been linked to temporal lobe epilepsy and is accompanied by a feeling of lost time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatism_ (medicine)
Another enhancement of this hypothesis is that suppressed part of self has ability to use some kind of unknown ability of man, which leads to a variety of electrical effects, teleportation, etc.
Disadvantages of this hypothesis is that it hardly explains evidences from large-scale surveillance, radar surveillance, some tangible evidence (angel hair, pieces of molten metal).
Risks are related to the fact that, apparently, such attacks can occur with people who previously did not have mental disorders - and this may be the Heads of State or the commanders of nuclear submarines, which may result of accidental nuclear war.


The third level of hypotheses, which require a radical change in our picture of the world



1. Extraterrestrial spacecraft or landing apparatus

Just note the difference between the terms Extraterrestrial and alien (more clear on Russian), which sometimes used as synonyms. Extraterrestrial life may be conceived in comets or in the photosphere of stars or even in parallel worlds, while the alien is life that originated similar way to the way of life in the Earth but on another planet, in general, similar to Earth, which orbit a star in the visible universe. Thus, the term alien is much tighter.
The next and most popular hypothesis is that UFOs are space ships or landing apparatus of extraterrestrial civilization arrived to us from another planet in our universe. (However, if they teleport from distant galaxies, then there is no fundamental difference with the phenomenon of creatures from a parallel world.) Although the comparison with the landing vehicles, hiring of soil samples, conducting experiments, etc. are clearly looks anthropomorphic, i.e. the projection of images of space exploration in the second half of the 20th century, it cannot be excluded that UFOs are  associated with activities of extraterrestrial civilizations, in a sense, such as ours, but surpassed our civilization in technological development. The main quality of these civilizations is that they are a post-singular that is, they have created self-developing AI that completely transformed their lives and they have created advanced nanotechnology, which gave them complete control over matter. In this case, UFO should be viewed not as a whole metal spacecraft, but more likely as clouds nanorobots, as described in the novel of S. Lem The invincible. This could explain many of their abilities, for example - quickly change shape, merge or disappear without a trace. To do this, such cloud could simply change the orientation of its elements. A modern metaphor for such devices is constructive fog - that is, a lot of microrobots able to connect with each other through long thin arms - or simply float next to each other by magnetic, electrostatic and other forces. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog
A more traditional view is that the spacecraft with crew arrive in Solar system, and conduct research programs, education of the people or their conquests. This view seems to me less probable, since in the scale of the Earth's technological development Technological singularity associated with the transition of power to the AI, should occur first and only after should appear means of interstellar transport, if it at all is possible for large-scale objects. If a civilization have gone a different path and, say, there had legally prohibited creating of artificial intelligence, then we may soon overtake it in this area and get an intelligent advantage when create our AI. However, the advantage of energy, transport and the ability to specifically act on the people left to them.
And if their law against AI applies to other civilizations, they can prevent us from creating it.
In addition to possible aggression, another risk factor associated with a hypothetical extraterrestrial vehicles is that they may suffer a catastrophe. Starship moving with near-light speeds, can lead to destruction, comparable to the fall of many kilometric in diameter asteroid. Its weight goes into energy, and at the mass of starship of 1000 tons its energy is equal to roughly 1000 gigatons, which is equivalent to impact of asteroid 2 km in size. If they use a kind of hyperspace, in case of error in the exit from hyperspace the ship would be within the planet which can be catastrophic. Here is not difficult to recall the theory of Tunguska meteorite as an alien spacecraft crash with a nuclear engine.
In addition, it is unlikely that wandering in the universe, aliens came to earth only recently. Either they have known for a long time about our planet millions of years ago, or somehow found out that it now in the history of Earth has begun an interesting period.
Finally, the alien ships may contaminate the Earth with extraterrestrial microorganisms.
But if aliens really want to invade the Earth (in the sense of physical capture) they should operate covertly, and then pile with the whole force - nothing of the sort we have seen. Hence the assumption exist that we are captured, and the governments know about it.
If we rely on the hypothesis that UFOs is alien spacecraft, then we can expect that they will surpass us in all 4 risk factors. However, this hypothesis seems unconvincing, as was shown by Jacques Vall;e. The reason for this is that we have seen millions of UFOs during the 20th century, that these UFOs behave absurd, if we consider that their purpose is gathering information about the Earth or extraction of earths resources, that there was no traces of the fact that UFOs come to our world from space (except short-term lunar phenomena). (Valle writes: In this article, are shown five specific arguments against the extraterrestrial origin of UFOs version. (1) unexplained close encounters are much more frequently than is required for any physical study of the Earth, (2) huamoids body does not look like aliens encountered on another planet and are not biologically adapted to space flight. (3) The behavior of creatures, which have been reported in thousands of reports of abductions, contradicts the hypothesis of genetic or scientific experiments on humans, of highly civilized race. and (5 ) The apparent ability of UFOs to manipulate space and time suggests radically different and richer alternatives, three of which are described in a sketch in the conclusion of this article.) Elsewhere Valle pointed out that if aliens wish to collect all the required information about Earth, they could place in orbit a satellite in the size of a keg, which would record all radio and television and has a shooting area with a resolution much better than today's spy satellites. There is no point in hanging the huge bodies upon military bases. Aliens, which have nanotechnology could install to everyone invisible eye implants in the size of bacterium in the brain - and for this a man should not be abducted - these microscopic products could be disseminated through the air. The interpretation of UFOs as spaceships, landing, taking samples of soil, producing experiments, reflects the perceptions of people mid-20th century on their own space programs, just as residents of the 19th century saw in the sky airships and their lone inventors.
 It may be that governments are in contact with something that is impersonating aliens, but they is not aliens in fact - and hence all the absurd claim that they are in need of human beings for medical experiments, for the blood of cows, etc.
The idea that aliens are preparing to "colonize" the Earth, repopulating  it by oxygen breathing representatives of their species, seems doubtful. Nothing prevented them from doing that a few tens or hundreds of years ago, and the problem of the destruction of mankind then would have been much easier. Moreover, mankind continues to damage its habitat, and therefore, again, it would make sense to begin the colonization of much earlier. Being able to fly at interstellar distances, they probably able to do terraforming of planets, and if they felt sorry for the terrestrial biosphere, they would create a settlement under the dome on Mars or on the Moon.
Another option is that exist very simple way for interstellar travel (eg, anti-gravity or teleportation), and the AI is or impossible or internally unstable. In this case we have a better chance to watch the classic aliens than the post-singular.
2. Artificial Intelligence, created by another civilization

The main objection to model of UFO as all-metal alien spacecraft with crews is that, based on submissions on the technological singularity, it must occur in Earth's history in the region of 2030 plus or minus 20 years, and its essence is that a man would be replaced by the superhuman AI. And it will happen much sooner than people are able to create interstellar transport. We are talking about the fact that it is easier to create artificial intelligence, capable of self-improvement than the interstellar transport with nearly the performance.
There is no reason to believe the Earth is especial in this regard. Therefore, we must assume that most civilizations create artificial intelligence before interstellar transport. Furthermore, while the interstellar transport without the AI is possible, it will be very limited technology, for example, is a nuclear blast-starships or ship-generation (see Project Orion the only real in our time interstellar vehicle that uses the energy of nuclear explosions for the motion. See also Ark Starship too early or too late? Although we cannot exclude the presence of alien generation-ships with very limited technology in the solar system, no empirical evidence about UFOs agree with this. If these ships were here, they could quietly located in the asteroid belt, studying the Earth with the help of several small satellites. On the contrary, evidence of UFOs talk about the enormous power on matter, space, time and consciousness, that is hardly possible without the creation of AI, when it comes to manifestations of extraterrestrial civilizations.
AI could spread through the universe with nearly the speed of light and transform it to fit its needs all the material found him on his path through stellar systems. In contrast, the primitive spacecraft could visit only several star systems, can even establish a colony, but in any case the rate of its spread is small.
Thus, from statistical considerations it follows that if the solar system is under the authority of some extraterrestrial civilization, this civilization most likely is AI but not a nuclear starship civilization, consisting of the biological beings. Simply because such starship civilization will spread slower. For example, if the average speed of nuclear starship is 0.1 light speed (a speed limit for fusion spaceships), and the velocity of the AI with nanostarships is near light speed 0.9 s, then the volume, which will capture AI for equal time will be 700 times more than volume, which could be mastered by nuclear starship civilization, and thus we have more chances to be in such AI volume, other things being equal.
I should emphasize the fundamental difference between the super AI and spacecraft from the previous chapter, as well as extraterrestrial nanorobots in the next chapter. In the last two cases we are talking about the arrival in the solar system some form of matter, and these material objects retain their basic properties. In contrast, the AI is a computer program that can run on different media. He has much more power over matter, what forms o intelligence linked to the specific material carriers. Its strength is that it is like God. That is the vehicle through which it arrived in the solar system (this may be a radio channel in the case of SETI-attack, see Is SETI dangerous? http://www.proza.ru/2008/04/12/55), has nothing to do with those things that it would build here.
However, the main catch here is that super AI can avoid and dont need any manifestation of itself being in the solar system. Moreover, it can achieve any its goals, while remaining completely invisible. He does not need any macroscale machines to achieve their goals. That is, it does not need to land, take samples, refuel, investigate people with bulky devices. All this is possible and easier to do with micromechanisms. Thus, the presence of excess in the solar system does not explain the visible manifestations of UFOs, though it is clear that it could organize them all, if it wanted.
Another point is that Super AI might be interested in converting all matter in the solar system in "computronium" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computronium), i.e. computing environment to maximize itself. In this case it could use the earthes material to build a Dyson sphere around the Sun to maximize energy and produce a maximum of computation or something like that. However, since we exist, this does not happen. Maybe the Earth is computronium inside, for example, all the Earth's core long ago was turned into a huge computer system or may be the Earth does not exist anymore, and its inhabitants with the minimum cost of resources was transferred to the computer simulation, or perhaps no computronium was built at all.
However, there is a theory about Friendly AI (see the work of Yudkowsky http://www.singinst.org/upload/CFAI//). According to it AI should preserve and increase the value of a man, not cause him harm and obey his commands (Something like 3 laws of robots of Asimov, but more safe and elaborate). That is, it should be a good gin and wise counsel at once. For this purpose, its goal system must be properly formed and fixed.
It is easy to assume that extraterrestrial civilizations have also sought to make his AI is friendly to itself. In this case, each of the aliens became "post-alien" (post-ET, by analogy with the post-man), subordinating the enormous computing resources at the top and sending them to fulfill his desires. Such post-ETcan spread through the galaxy at light speed communications channels between the nodes in a galactic Internet, created by super AI.
Obviously, this friendly-to-aliens AI is not friendly to humans. Not that it would be hostile to human, but post-ET game is more important for him than "universal" values. Thus, it has a conflict of interest between the consumers of amusement and concern for intelligent life in general. Perhaps another intelligent life for him is only material for these entertainment that it want to preserve a little longer. The system of objectives of its owners remained at large due to their evolutionary origin of their predecessors. That is they (at least some of them) are still interested in sex, hunting, fantasy, space flight on rusty gutters, war, and investigation. Sound familiar?
That is, we can assume that the Earth is not the object of study, but a place for hunting (as in the movie "Predator" or perform destructive rituals that have meaning only in the minds of the post-aliens like in "Alien vs. Predator": there are two kinds of aliens arrive Earth, only to fight with each other and get a matriculation certificate.)
And here it becomes clear what could be UFOs. They probably are constructions, created be SuperAI, for the entertainment of their capricious and caused by ancient instincts owners.
Perhaps even this alien AI is not really friendly to aliens. Perhaps it became "crazy" millions of years ago. Only the toys and the living ghosts as in "The Martian Chronicles" of Bradbury, which repeat meaningless movements and reaction, which once upon a time were entertainment for post-aliens (or post-aliens live like prisoners in an unbearable prison where events repeat in a circle of immortality).
Similar arguments are proposed in the article of Dolan "What are they? 2002, where it is alleged that he had these came to these thoughts first among ufologists. http://keyholepublishing.com/What% 20Are% 20They.htm
SuperAI can penetrate into our solar system not only from other planets, but also from the parallel worlds or of the past (if, for example, it was created by a previous civilization on Earth) and from the future. The higher AI control over the Earth, the closer it is to a computer simulation created by AI, which will be discussed further.
One version of this hypothesis is the theory of Tehnocosm of Lasarevich i.e. of the universe, over and above mined using nanotechnology. Here the main difference is that von Neumann nano-probes which arrived in our solar system are in constant contact with other nodes of the galactic network, through which they receive superAI, or they themselves are superAI, and exchange information with other nodes in the galactic internet. It is important here that we have artificial extraterrestrial intelligence in full force in our stellar system, in which case we are completely in its power. But this does not mean that he will destroy us! We may represent humility, peace, or what you want other qualities that we think should rejoice that alien AI, and to have it with us will be treated well and even protect against different risks.
The main drawback of this hypothesis is in the absurdity of aliens. if they use nanotechnology they do not need to fly in a 100 meter disks around the sky. They unlikely will be curious to earthly disasters, because they can calculate and simulate them in advance, and that curiosity to catastrophe is a purely human emotion. However, this absurdity can dismiss on the grounds that the road of extraterrestrial AI are unknown. The idea of space zoo, and excursions in it, too, looks like anthropomorphism.

3. Extraterrestrial nanorobots


At the moment the most promising form of space exploration is the use of nanostarships (small appliances speeded up by laser beam) which are von Neumann probes - that is they are able to produce their copies of improvised materials in the place of arrival.
These small-sized vehicles (weighing a few grams) can be composed of nano-robots - that is, micro-sized living cell capable of self-replication as well as the implementation of molecular manufacturing - that is, producing macroscopic objects with atomic precision. Additionally, nanorobots could merge into larger mechanisms. A good example of such ideas can serve as a novel "Invincible" by S. Lem.
It is easy to assume that the solar system has long been colonized by extraterrestrials nanorobots (EN). Consider, for which there may be options. Latter I will under extraterrestrial nanorobots have in mind not the individual micromechanisms, but network properly organized their flocks that have distributed intelligence. However, I believe that one way or another they have full authority on atomic matter: that is to build all possible objects with the most unbelievable characteristics.
Some manifestations of EN are consistent with the typical manifestations of UFOs. Clouds of nanorobots would be relatively transparent to the air, which may explain the fact that it can quickly move through the air, not encountering significant resistance on his part. Moreover, such cloud can create a semblance of the earth, all the artifacts and humanoid. However, this view of things may simply be an attempt to look at things through the eyes of people of 21 century, and bear its distortion. In addition, von Neumann probes may be deprived of the full intelligence of their creators, which may partly explain the absurd behavior of UFOs. All this, again, is discussed in the Lems novel The invincible. If von Neumann probes do not have a full-fledged intelligence, they do not represent intellectual threat (ie they are not able to fully understand and subdue the human race), but also to come in contact with them is almost impossible. It may be that von Neumann probes are purposely sprayed through the universe with restrictions on the development of intelligence, in order that they do not rebelled, or they can simply became out of control somewhere once long ago and grow in the universe as a weed.)
 A good name for this kind of phenomenon is "techno-life." In this case, is not even so important "nanotech" on which it is based, but is important general principles of behavior. These robots-replicators could be not based on nanotech. For example, they may be macroscale robots using for self-reproduction plants, or creating "eggs", as biological beings (and even using living cells and individual organisms (birobotos) for their goals -  So that such a device could easily look like a "saucer with a crew"). These robots may even have antigravitational engines. Or they can use the unknown forms of matter, or consist of them. The main thing is that they are only robots which cant evolve. (If their intelligence would be able to self-development, it would soon gave rise to super AI, and the question return to what was discussed in the previous paragraph.)
Again, the only difference with in the novel The invincible would be that they went out into space. In this case, when our nanotechnology will develop enough, we can discover and explore extraterrestrial nanorobots or can destroy them. However, such nanorobots must be present throughout the solar system, not just on Earth, up to Oort cloud, and the challenge of their extermination is not trivial. In terms of available energy extraterrestrial nanorobots should have almost unlimited amounts of it - because they can transform a large proportion of the mass of the planets in the solar system in theirself. In addition, they must have specific ways of causing harm to humans - like any nanotechnological weapons. (See review The dangers of molecular manufacturing http://www.crnano.org/dangers.htm ) Consequently, the only way to overcome them is to win intellectually, that is, through excess of human and artificial intelligence of our own nanotechnology. It is possible that extraterrestrial nanorobots have a system of recognition of a friend-foe and in case of strangers to them, that is our nanorobots, they trigger the elimination program, and suddenly we will be in a whirlwind of nanowar.
The absurdity of UFOs due to the fact that their intelligence was originally damaged by their creators, so that they could not build AI, capable of unlimited self-improvement. These nanorobots may be present in the human body, even consist a significant portion of its mass, which may explain the different parapsihological miracles, projections the astral body, ectoplasm etc. This may be due to their innate need for mimicry, probably with the aim of masking. The proliferation of hostile nanorobots breeding may explain the Fermi paradox - that is, the silence of the universe. They just do not give civilizations to rise above a certain level (for example, destroying them).
Our civilization is relatively close to the level at which we could send the probe to space or to develop nanotechnology, that is a threat to the alien nanorobots. One civilization could start shock wave of intelligence, which would move with nearlight speed. In this case, a civilization which existed billions of years ago, could fill with their descendants sphere of radius around a billion light years, or even more, given the expansion of the universe. This amount would include nearly a billion of galaxies. Each star system would be attended by a number of nanorobots, which controlled its own, located on the surface of planets. Number of active nanorobots determined by affordable level of energy: solar, thermal, interatomic. In any case, it is not enough to turn the entire mass of the planet in nanorobots, and they do not need it. These nanorobots could perform maneuvers - form in clouds, fly. And that we are witnessing as UFO.
Masking will be important for the EN, if the universe has a lot of different species of EN. In this case, selection would be in favor of the nano-robots that are able to control most large territory and had the best camouflage to avoid detection and destruction of competitors. (Those EN that are present in the human body may study it so well that they become a "symbiont" and connect to the human brain; this explains different aspects of psychic manifestations of UFOs.) This may explain the Fermi paradox - that is, the silence of the universe. They just do not give civilizations to rise above a certain level (for example, destroying them). But our civilization is relatively close to the level at which we could send to a space or to develop nanotechnology, that is a threat to the alien nanorobots.
Distribution of hostile reproducing nanorobots may explain the Fermi paradox - that is, the silence of the universe. They just do not give civilizations to rise above a certain level (for example, destroying them - that is, they are the so-called "berserks").
 But our civilization is relatively close to the level at which we could send starships to space or to develop nanotechnology, that is a threat to the alien nanorobots. What is the "threshold" at berserkers is unknown. The more they are smarter, the sooner they would have to destroy us, and from the fact that we still exist, it follows that either they do not exist in our part of the universe, or the threshold unjustifiably high, for example due to defects or loss of intellectual original objective function of the evolution.
But we can think about the "soft Berserker, or "regressors", whose main task is just to stop technological progress, at some level. This they can achive mystifying, destroying key production, creating false ideas, influencing the key persons, intimidating, and only in extreme cases by direct military intervention. Then, with technological progress the number of manifestations of the UFO would have to grow what we do not see in last 20 years. Generally, in any Berserker has to be some sort of "humanitarian threshold", otherwise its creators could simply decide to destroy the entire universe and all the planets, which could ever became habitable.
Different types of von Neumann probes launched by different civilizations or by one civilization at different moments in time, will be under strong pressure of natural selection. This selection is likely to lead to the appearance or the wide dissemination of such a von Neumann probes, which prevent other probes from occur, to colonize the planet and spread. Accordingly, if there is any probes in the solar system, it is likely that they are from this type. And if we do something that they perceive as an attempt to start the cosmic expansion, they will stop it, which may mean or may not mean the destruction of mankind. In addition, it is unknown what the key event may be taken as an attempt to establish their own probes of von Neumann: the launch of the interstellar rockets? (but we have already launched Voyager). Or the development of its own nanotechnology? In any case, all these potentially key events are very close in time in the near future. Note that due to observational selection, we cannot observe the classes of probes of von Neumann, which destroy the lives and intelligence in the early stages of their development, no matter how often they are distributed in space. Perhaps they have evolved and become a distinctive half-intelligent animals, which have different rituals of behavior, sexual selection, courtship.
More on this topic, I spoke in the article Alien nanorobots in the solar system: the possible risks and ways to detect them. (Space gray goo: Solaris among us.) http://www.proza.ru/2009/07/21/1105 On Russian. Similar ideas are discussed here: Could "real", physical UFOs - if there are any - be von Neumann probe?
Generally there is a clear contradiction between the statement that the UFO established civilizations that arose in earth-like planets, which consist of atoms and remote to the large physical distance from the Earth - and observed UFOs ability to move through the matter as if they were not composed of atoms and move as if they teleports, rather than moving through physical space.
Yet it can be assumed that extraterrestrial civilizations have learned to create objects, in other words, robots which are wholly composed of energy fields (the possible ways to do so you can borrow from the list of hypotheses about the nature of ball lightning above). Suppose that it is a certain combination of electric and magnetic fields. Such electric robots have a number of advantages: they can be very quickly accelerated in the accelerator and they can loose speed by use of magnetic field naturally existing in space, which makes it possible to travel with near light speed. They can carry out practically non-inertial movement, as well as they have small mass and electric forces acting on the whole of their volume. They possess a high degree of secrecy. They may be von Neumann probes, that is to carry out their replication by the resources of electromagnetic environment. Thus, they can quickly fill a large portion of the visible universe, if even one civilization once in the past has been able to create them.
To discover them would be extremely difficult, because EN can avoid detection, obeying the principle of mimicry, and because nobody is looking. (An important part of the principle of mimicry could be a deliberately absurd behavior, creating a muffled noise pollution level of disinformation through the channels of communication.) The only direct evidence in its favor that is alleged that particles from red rain in Kerala are able to replicate at a temperature of about 300 degrees Celsius. But only one person has claimed it, while others believe that these particles are the spores of land seaweed. In addition, this hypothesis makes no specific predictions, and therefore not falsifiable. It does not explain the sources of energy of UFOs, and the anomalous acceleration, and many other aspects. Yet this hypothesis is better than the hypothesis of whole ships with humanoids inside.
Risks here are associated with the principle unpredictability of techno-life. If it exist it has sufficient resources to instantly destroy all of humanity. Provoke signal to it can be informational, something like "trigger event" of unknown type (for example, it could be clearly discovery of EN, or creating a rival to them).
4. Pointed hallucinations

Another idea is that UFOs are directed hallucinations caused by someone else. This hypothesis encompasses one of the possible manifestations of many other hypotheses, namely that, just what are those who create these hallucinations and what technology they use for this purpose. Idea of aimed hallucinations is that to different people are broadcasted different images. This idea explains the fact that memories from different people are different, the fact that often there are people who have not seen anything, that photos of the object or do not coincide with the stories of eyewitnesses, or not obtained, then, that some means of technical response observed object and others do not. These differences may be either intentional or due to the fact that the creators of hallucination cannot achieve a uniform effect on all people or the people differently reconstruct received sensory information, or do not see anything. So, it can be:
1) Special Secret Services. This is idea of a "psychotronic weapons". Manipulation by some microwave radiation, holographic projection, radars, lasers, transmitting radiation into the eye, drugs, reduced models of UFOs. Stroboscopic effect (which is sometimes reported) of a UFO is like work of video projector, if you look into its lens from the image.
2) Classic aliens. Much the same thing as in paragraph 1, but more advanced, and plus, if some parapsychological effects exist they must know about them. This, actually, is basis of faith of all contactees in the possibility of telepathic contact with UFO.
3) Super AI of nonhuman origin (from other planets, from another universe, or of past or future). It has almost unlimited set of tools for this.
4) Alien nanorobots connecting to the human brain.
5) The manifestations of the collective unconscious. If people are not connected it must somehow agree in advance with different individuals, if it uses only the hidden messages in the ordinary channels of communication. If some form of telepathy exists, it is not a problem.
6) Electrical or nonorganic life forms. They can also affect the brain or the eyes and cameras, creating directed electrical currents in these objects. Especially their task easier if the person has a soul-symbiont, which broadcasts such hallucinations almost continuously (eg, hiding most of the UFO sightings - after all if where can be positive hallucinations, where also may be negative ones).
7) People-magicians. Here the idea is that only alive people can remotely influence other people. Example: classic stories about Wolfgang Messing, who created  negative hallucinations, or induce sleeping state on his hypnosis shows. One idea here is that the involuntary hallucinations inductor is located inside the group and observing your emotional and hypnotic phrase brings instant transe to the rest of the group that is already instilled in the state after observing unusual phenomena, such as aircraft, in a rare perspective. Or if in some group is a hoaxer, who has succumbed to him majority of the people, and there are those who could not resist the pressure of the group. But very often in the group there are those who have not seen anything. For example, during events at Fatima where were those who did not see anything special. K.Jung describes the case when, during a spirit s;ance, four of those present witnessed the emergence of a luminous ball, but he did not observe anything.
8) The observer selects different subsets of the Multiverse. It is like C.Castanedas model of the world where different people collect different worlds.
9) The function of the global simulation-matrix. It is clear that within the simulation you can create any miracles, including different visions for different people.
10) The tendency of people to see real things in a certain set of external circumstances. For example, satellite launches during the night was repeatedly mistaken for a close passage of UFOs. That is bad identifiable object on a dark background and high emotional arousal in conjunction with sleepiness can be a powerful natural trigger of dream-style hallucinations and visions. In this case, are involved simultaneously all (see below) places of the emergence of hallucinations: outer space, the eyes, the visual cortex and higher centers, resulting in a stable self-sustaining illusion. See the following story about a woman who took the plane for a UFO, and her followed spiritual transformation http://magonia.haaan.com/2009/experiences/ Analysis showed that in her perception of the "UFO" were symbolically encrypted problems of her family. In addition, there may be a collective hallucination in the selection of underground gas, natural electrical currents or epidemic ergotism.
11) A separate level of "hallucinations" is deliberate distortion, mystification, refraction of messages in the media and other similar activities.
12) Demons. Here the basic idea is that the inorganic beings of a low nature posing themselves as creatures with a higher ontological status.
In addition, hallucinations may be divided on what grounds, that is on what "authority" they operate.
1) Creating a false image of the object around real object in the spirit of a smoke screen or veil.
2) Holograms in the air - the creation of an imaginary image of a non-existent object in a remote area.
3) The images in the observer's eye: creation of an imaginary picture in the receptors of sense organs, as well as on the photosensitive surface of the camera.
4) The visual cortex: the creation of an imaginary picture in the visual analyzer of the human brain.
5) Interpretation: the creation of "meaning" hallucinations in the higher centers of nervous activity, based on the beliefs and expectations of the person.
The "higher" is the hallucination on the list, the higher is the technology needed for its creation.
The second issue is what itself is the source of hallucinations. Roughly speaking, it can be either "inside the UFO" - that is a UFO makes some illusory shell around itself, or no UFOs do not exist, and the source of hallucinations is not in the view of the observer.
That's a good story with astroforum, which illustrates the idea of UFOs as directed hallucinations:
"1987 July. Podmoskovny farm, not far from the platform of EMUs - Klyazma ".
My wife and I were at that time students and in the summer to earn as they could. Then worked around the clock protection to the berry fields of the farm. Guarded with their dogs. The protection of employees through Kennel Club, the salary paid the natural product. That summer there were the strawberries. The fields were surrounded by Rabitz. Lived in cabins. Cabins were scattered so that at least one was visible from the other, and created a network of points-change houses the entire system of protected fields. Our area had 3 limits:
- River with local wild beach (400 - 500 m),
- Highway (200 - 250 m),
- Wood fencing with the exclusion zone Mosvodokanal (clean channel in Moscow) (250 - 300 m).
Instead 4th border was the woods and the next field - an area also guarded our team, but other clothes. There have also woods and could see the neighboring cabin.
The case went to the evening, before dusk hours left 2. Near the neighboring cabins gathered almost all of us, except on duty, to celebrate the birthday. My wife and dog, as non-drinkers, remained on duty at the beach, where the company locals something and vigorously pointed.
And then they go to the beach on the field for the strawberries. My wife tried to negotiate with them, but they are not listened to and threatened. I stayed with the dog next to them. His wife ran for help. Get help arrived quickly, arrived in dogs with sliding on the grass slipper. Further disassembly, deconstruction and the continuation of already shared with neighboring booth booze. But the situation was tense because of the offended local left with threats and promises to return at night.
Before dusk remained somewhere in half an hour. While it was quiet, I started looking around and saw on our field at the edge of the restricted forest zone, at an altitude of 100-150 meters, in a clear blue sky objects composed of lights arranged in a cross. The long side of the cross (20-30 meters) - was placed horizontally, short (10-15 meters) - vertically. "The head of the Cross" had a few lights, forming a small cross-hair (meters). Cross was motionless, and only occasionally turned in a horizontal plane at 360 degrees, as if looking round.
A few minutes passed, and the cross nowhere budge. And then I decided to show it to others. I ran across the field to the neighboring cabins, located 250 meters away from me. Seeing this, my movement, from the neighboring cabins to meet me run two, my wife and bodyguard. They thought that the beach again, something happens. Running up to him, I pointed to the sky, on the cross and shouted: "Look!" And then something unexpected happened. They both immediately looked down at the ground. Then his wife chased after "blue rabbit" along the strawberry beds to one side of me. A guard chased after the rolling ridges between the "black ball" in the other direction. I had to wait on the ground both of them. A cross hung there all the same, and seemed to smile at me, made a couple of turns, reverence, and again stopped. They will soon (in 10 - 15 min) returned, the more that Twilight has deepened. Long tortured me, as I saw this from afar and had called them on time. I never managed to convince them that there were no rabbits and balls I've seen. A cross hung in the sky, and I am still unable to get them to look at it. They argued and discussed rabbits and balloons. As a result, returned to work. The dog was left with his wife. Then he went on a long shed to the foreman for the pistol, so that we can give a signal to the collection, if local come at night to perform the promised threat.
Return any in complete darkness on the shortest road along the forest exclusion zone. The cross was about the same place. My way was to pass directly under the cross. There remained 200 meters and the angle of observation has already amounted to about 45 degrees. Then the cross was the barrage, leaving behind the wood fence and returning to its original location. I stopped, because the maneuver of the cross, as it seemed to me, was such that, on my approach to the place of his many hours of home. So scary. Went perpendicularly from the forest to cross the field in their direction, but on the next cross road, away from the forest. Cross back into place, and I began to cross the field 150 meters away from the forest. Passed 30-40 meters in the field and saw some dark Shadows advancing towards me diagonally from the far corner of the field (for a cross in the forest) to my way. Once it became scary. Turned around, went to the next transverse road for another 150 meters further. He began to cross, went meters 60 - 70, again the same story - 3 - 4 meter silhouette 3 - 3,5 growth moved me to slitting. But not me, but from the old road. Here I wanted to slip. Immediately behind this idea in front of me stood an invisible wall, a certain emphasis in the chest, not allowing me to move in the same direction. This is me as something even a little stunned and angry. I began waving his arms to kick the wall down, were scattered at her feet forward and junp Other circus. But do not feel anything other than blank in the chest (not repulsive, inert and stop). Desperately, he returned and went to the far more expensive (even at 150 - 200 meters) away from the forest. Here the wall has already occurred in the middle of the field. I began to understand its function in this place. Previously, it would not let me intersect with silhouettes, it is now, and the silhouettes of these was no longer visible, and the cross was far from calm and in its place. Then, uncover and cocked a rocket, went forward - the wall was not there. After two or three minutes left on the edge of your field and collided with his wife and dog, who came to meet me, experiencing that there is no me a long time. And they caught me with a cocked pistol in his hand. He explained that he saw someone in a far corner, protected our land.
I offered to bypass along the river bank. There were now two with the dog and the fear was gone. I immediately showed his wife the cross, but hid behind a wood fence and its presence was designated filtering through tree crowns weak lights. As we approach interesting for me to post notice that the cross went there for the forest in the direction of the angle of the field, where we went. Forest in the wrong place, too, had the angle (inside), the second short side corner stood on the other side of the river, so that the extreme angle of the trees that were already close to us, but on the other side. That's because of the crowns of these trees next to us began to approach the lights. I kept track of all this maneuver, and as if sensing what was to happen now, again briefly explained to his wife that evening that was not the hare, and UFOs. And that now we go to him, but he seems - to us. That is, we're going to call it on yourself. Almost finished the story, but in what place stopped hard to remember. Just at this moment of extreme crown of trees, at a distance of 25 - 30 meters from us left cross. Well Makhina - will tell you. Imagine that you almost over the tops of pine trees at a height of hanging liner full of lights and absolutely silent and quiet around so that you could hear crickets and your own breathing.
At this point the wife finally saw this thing that just crawled into his eyes bright and penetrating light on the "spotlight" directed at us from the "nose" of small cross-hair cross. She asked that we turned back, and obviously her voice trembling. But I objected, because with our dog and missiles. But she did not move. Then I ordered the dog "to me" and we went forward. It has been five steps can. Cross fell in my direction with the crown of the forest. The dog lay down a step away from me and just cry. I sat down in readiness fire missile. My wife screamed that I have to explain why the total harvest. Sheaf lifgt fire at me from a height of about 8 - 10 meters and no more discern any forms or shapes. After sitting motionless in meditation for three minutes, I got up and went back ago. After going to his wife saw that the cross is also shifted to the previous starting position of the crown of the forest. We turned around and went to the barracks, the Cross of the return route back to his place over a field near the fence. When we sat down on a bench near the barracks, we saw how the cross came down and hovered low (in meters) over the field. Wait couple of minutes, slowly got up and left for the forest, out of sight. My conclusions:
1. Yes, there is a category of people who feels the approach of the UFO phenomenon, and almost immediately recognize this phenomenon. There is a category of people who can also see a UFO on the condition that they show and convince them that now that the observed object is called a UFO. There is a category of people who are not allowed to watch the UFO. The first very few, there are few second, third majority.
2. All from the beginning to the end of the observation process is built on the psyche / psychology / psychometrics proper observer. What is certain psihomernuyu Us observer and object. Not only the observer perceives the object, but perceives the object and the observer. Moreover, the feeling of the observer object always occurs before the appearance of the object. (it was always and in any major or minor observations).
3. Follows from the 2 nd. It became clear after the cross, as in the Middle Ages, people actually watched the pure and evil spirits, so in our man-made time today to watch a real UFO and other mechanical BUT, in the future actually watch the matrix, parallel universes, N-WIDE temporal and spatial dimensions.
4. Finally it is clear that the world was given to man in the sensations, but the man himself is the engineer of his feelings. And in this sense indisputable UFO no doubt there are also real. As aircraft and satellites. And yet there is no comparing the results of the comparative engineering aircraft factory and the man himself alone! For they (airplane, boat) and another (UFO), and any new future - there will be 100% ARTEFACT.
http://www.astronomy.ru/forum/index.php/topic, 1662.1300.html   
Goal of directed hallucinations: disguise, entertainment, creation of false beliefs.
The greater the number of people shared the observation, to a lesser extent, can be regarded as its directed hallucination, and the closer it is to "shared reality".
The main difficulties of the theory of directed hallucinations arise in regard to the appearance of material traces.
Risks are associated with the possible extent of the phenomenon (that is, whether it be global and kill all people), as well as the fact that his "victims" will be the people who take responsible decisions.
5. The materialization of thoughts
This hypothesis also incorporates several special cases of other hypotheses. It consists in the idea that an individual or group of people, being in an altered state of consciousness, can change the material manifestations of reality. Note that this is not the same as the ability to create a collective hallucination, attributed to some of the hypnotist (although perhaps that is special case), and not the same thing that the establishment of synchronistic coincidences due to sampling of different versions of the multiverse (which is also possible as a special case). The materialization of thought means the ability to create or destroy objects, consisting of atoms.
 The materialization of thoughts can occur due to:
1) Clouds nanorobots read our thoughts and execute it.
2) The same is done non-biological life forms.
3) The same is done beyond or follows from the laws of the simulation, in which we live.
4) The same makes our collective unconscious, in some way is adjusting.
5) The materialization of thoughts is an ontological feature of our reality, indeed, the whole world is the most stable materialization. That is the materialization of thoughts is the essence of the phenomenon, not simply one of the possible manifestations. This option we now consider in more detail. This idea has run-in various religious and philosophical currents, but what are the physical basis for this process remains unclear.
R. Monroe made the experiments: a certain group of people visualized in the air an objet, and it was seen in the first experiment, while the latter manifested only on film. (R. Monroe, "Far Journey".)
"The fact that we had the idea of exercise, during which participants were to experience together to make a particular mental energy into a visible spot of light at a height of about a thousand feet above the motel. Once, late at night, we decided to test this idea. The basic idea was that the combined energy of the twenty-four participants can be translated into something visible to the eye. In the motel were extinguished all light sources (this hotel was out of town). With a stopwatch we knew exactly where it should appear in the sky glow.
The four of us went outside and stared into the darkness. We had enough time to eyes had become accustomed to the darkness. In due course, there was a signal, and we stared at the sky. Nobody saw nothing, but then our electronics engineer exclaimed excitedly:
- Above, see above!
We raised above their heads, as looking glow directly above the roof of a motel, and now with amazement saw that there, high up against a star-studded sky shimmer red, like neon, slightly luminous waves. Most of all, they looked like a trickle of water, vygnuvshuyusya arc in the sky above the motel. At the very moment when the assessment exercise participants had to "turn off the lights, glow disappeared. Three minutes later, we repeated the experiment: in the sky again emerged red shimmering streams, which were extinguished with the signal that signals the completion of the experiment. This phenomenon is seen all four. We were simply shocked at the results.
Later, we repeated this experiment in one of the sessions of the program "Open gates" in California on a ranch north of San Francisco. At this time with us was an engineer, armed with a special Polaroid, he headed the camera in the sky, intending to take pictures of the phenomenon, if it persists. To eliminate the chance darkening of the film, our photographer took a couple of shots just before the signal the beginning of the experiment. During the experiment, when, as expected, the sky was supposed to thicken the energy, he made two more shots. The next two photos of the same portion of the sky were taken after the exercise ended.
At this time the sky at the same time the next five to six observers. No one noticed any glow. We returned to the room, made a concluding meeting and together studied made Polaroid photographs. In those pictures, which were removed before the experiment, as well as at the last two photos, there was nothing but two photographs, taken directly during the experiment, was clearly visible luminous sphere with marble designs, something like a globe how it can be seen from space. Why are Polaroid observed a phenomenon, although we have not seen anything? Some physicists and photographers explain it this way: film "sees" no human vision optical frequencies.
In addition to this explanation the image of the spherical blob of energy, and put forward the traditional version: reflections sung, darkening of the film, etc. However, the empty frames taken before and after the experiment, attached two pictures of the energy cluster even more credibility, as these pictures have fallen to the middle of tapes, where the chances of overexposing Look very small. ...
 "In addition, many pointed to the emergence of yet known to science-type magnetic field. One consequence was the emergence of magnetic fields in the surrounding areas of electrical cables and a public address system, while others - such a strong impact on the tapes, that one track, "imprint" on the other. Record companies would be very interested in how to achieve such an effect on the industrial level. However, the results available to us, of course, far too little to ensure that they represent any commercial value. In any case, until their is not enough.
One night, when we sat in his car, parked about six meters in a straight line from the booth Number 2, revealed that all three cars have completely got the batteries. The night was old, cars wound up fairly easily and not stopped. Other cars were on the other side, about twenty meters from the building, did not suffer. So we learned that before the experiment definition with some Scouts it is better not leave the machine next to the laboratory. What exactly happened and why, is still not clear. "
This hypothesis is attractive because it explains many of the absurd explanation of UFOs. For example, a hovering of huge discs over the military bases. It can be assumed that, in fact, at this point that the military base was investigated by several psychics, such as from project Stargate. These projections of thoughts have very limited autonomy and hence can make recurring senseless acts like flying on the same route. Even a very significant phenomenon may be projections of one person for example, the events in Fatima were probably projections of a girl, possibly backed by the energies of other children. This explains the similarity of UFO and dreams and the relationship of UFO with dreams: up to kidnapping, sensation of vibration, in form of sleepy paralysis, the similarity to such phenomena as ectoplasm, etc. Thus, the UFOs are manifestations of inherent human abilities, but under the control of the unconscious. In other words UFOs are a kind of poltergeist, occurring not only in the house, but within certain areas. This well explains the manifestations of UFOs attachment to a particular place - in fact, they are a projection of one person living in the area, as well as the duration of the UFO flaps comparable to the length of poltergeist of 6 - 9 months. Poltergeist differ similar degree of absurdity, and repeatability - that is the same absurd action is repeated with slight variations. Poltergeist also avoid attention - objects are beginning to move when they are not watched. Poltergeist accompanied by meaningless messages, often associated with suppressed sexuality. This explains the nature of the UFO: the absence of a clear boundary between UFOs and dreams.
 
It is important to try to understand who materializes thoughts:
A) people (EPR, ectoplasm)
B) a group of people doing it intentionally (a seance, experiments of A.G. Lee for psihocinesis)
B) unconscious aspects of personality (poltergeist).
D) group of people do it unconsciously (spiritualistic seances.)
D) beings located in another space,
The most correct explanation is that living beings have learned to control their attention, so that change the chances of observing one or another variant multiverse. Obviously, this provided a strong evolutionary advantage.
Very quickly the world has become saturated with competing forms of attention, and stabilized in a certain pseudo equilibrium form. Focused attention is focused on the observation of a particular aspect of the world might be called "energy", which gained relative autonomy from exhaling its subjects.
High concentrations of different forms of attention has meant that it became possible to glue together different versions of the multiverse, which allowed up to the instantaneous physical phenomena in the bonding of different worlds (disappearance of large amounts of soil and, on the contrary, strange objects falling from the sky).
In addition, concentrated attention has a high ability to cause illusion and experience, which can smoothly flow into materialization. Concentrated attention can be turned into a kind of biorobots - "thought forms". They could be some programs with simple (or not simple) algorithms. The result is that reality becomes like dream or simulation.
In fact, a UFO is something like a large poltergeist, which in turn is related to some uncontrolled part of the human psyche. In a sense, our world is an unmanaged computing environment. With is a little bit of solipsism. The mechanism of this phenomenon is vaguely understandable. (I discuss the various details of his explanation in the text of "Control of probability and evolution" http://www.proza.ru/2009/07/15/115) and may be associated with certain manyworld quantum effects, which resulted in the whole world resides in the uncertainty of an observer. In act of observation the observer collapses the wave function of the world and turns it into an ordinary three-dimensional world. However, in some cases, collapse occurs only partially and there are things in half real, half the probable. That is why the UFO avoid crowded places and mass observation, as well as fixing the techniques of photography there is too much human attention. In addition, it explains the connection between UFOs and it is unlikely coincidences, as well as a state of dreaming. This explains the anthropomorphism of UFOs, and absurdity, and communication with parapsychology and the ability to materialize. This explains the difficulties with the objective study of the phenomenon, as a research objective, we mean the direction of a very large amount of attention to the object, and this should lead to its collapse. This may explain the excitement around and explore the issue of UFOs, as the researcher is an objective cannot be separated from the research object and subject of his energy impact.
UFO is by definition the state of a couple: the observer and the observed object.

6. Interdimensional ships from parallel world


The next hypothesis is that UFOs are devices coming from parallel worlds, for example, of the side branches of Multiverse. The advantages of this hypothesis are following: since there are a lot of branches of Multiverse, then we have visitors from very different branches of it, which explains the great diversity of forms of seen UFOs. In addition, since many branches exist, any given branch has not value for specific research or commercial value. Therefore, we are often visited by casual visitors, poachers, who are just playing in our world. This may explain their ability to disappearances. However, newcomers from the parallel worlds can be detected by genetic markers: they would often be listed to us their bacteria, which could cause unusual epidemics. But we have not seen any teleportation of viruses - they are spread by airborne droplets or other explainable ways. That works against possibility of transfer of matter from other world but not energy and information. Of course, possible teleportation of objects from the "close parallel world", which would not have left genetic markers, but in close parallel in any country of transport vehicles, which can be mistaken for UFOs.
Since there are many branches the travelers may not be afraid that we push them out from this particular branch. However, a hostile AI aimed at total self-reproduction may enter from any branch (like SETI-attack see my article Is SETI dangerous? http://www.scribd.com/doc/7428586/Is-SETI-Dangerous).
 One can assume that the spherical form of the UFO is a brilliant film of molten metal held around the central device using electric and magnetic fields. This explains the cases after the passage of UFOs where were found droplets of molten metal or pieces of slag. (Physical Analyses in Ten Cases of Unexplained Aerial Objects with Material Samples.
Jacques F. Vallee, Journal of Scientific Exploration Furthermore, this explains the change in color of UFOs - at the expense of the film heating by the inside microwave beams, as well as the fact of a thermal radiation, and microwave radiation. In part, this may explain the movement without air shock waves at supersonic speeds - due to ionization of air around the unit and adjust it (or rather, forms a shell of the molten metal) to form the shock wave and can explain the humming sound when they fly. But to explain the sharp movements they need to have antigravitational engines, a system of invisibility (possibly also by the shell - for example, the right image is projected on it, or it oscillates at such speed that it does not reflect radio signals and light at certain wave frequencies) and the ability to teleportation. This requires nuclear energy sources. Instead of antigravity and levitation may be used interaction with Earth's magnetic field - but it does not explain the rapid acceleration, but explains the effect on the compass. Light spots on the surface of the bladder may be the point at which energy and the material is supplied from the internal apparatus. Molten metal can be supported by the fact that powerful computer by the complex algorithm emits electromagnetic field of a complex shape, held by each point of the molten metal on the surface of the ellipsoid. The video of UFO in Paris (probably fake) shows a triangular UFO surrounded by a round ball shape. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXsZRc-cdGw
The ability to teleportation is equivalent to prove the existence of other dimensions. One can imagine that there are many other dimensions, civilizations which are parallel to our branch in the Multiverse, which explains their genetic similarity to humans as well as the existence of different races, which are the UFO pilots. At the same time, these civilizations are not greatly exceed the Earth's scientific level, could be on a couple decades of years, that is they are pre-Singular and may lag behind the Earth in some respects, but because of certain peculiarities of their development have access to the technology of antigravity, of metal screen and of teleportation, and may be reading our thoughts. This option does not exclude the possibility of a physical invasion, in the spirit of the classic war worlds. However, such a civilization from parallel world, would have not specific reason for the invasion, as well as based on the plurality of worlds, must be the mass of empty worlds where they can engage in mining or to build their settlements. However, there is possible variant of the pirates, poachers, and / or illegal tourists. They can steal some values that have commercial and entertainment value in their world women, culture or technology. They may just hunt around for our heads as some now hunting from helicopters, for fun or as stupid jokes.
In the case of the existence of parallel worlds in them, too, could be a phenomenon such as von Neumann probes, which are gray goo, capturing all the worlds in a row and devour all the available resources. These probes can also use nanotechnology and also we can be inside the area occupied by one of the probes, which does not manifest itself except that prevents penetration, the emergence and replication of other probes. So here apply the same reasoning as in the case of alien nanorobots.
This explains the fact that UFOs are tied to specific places and time periods - namely, it is possible that in these zones is facilitated by the transition between worlds. The main unknown in this hypothesis is how to relate the number of worlds with advanced civilizations capable to send inter-dimensional probes to the number of worlds where they can get, but where there is intelligent life (ie, worlds like Earth now). Let's call the first world-senders, and second visited worlds. If visited worlds are relatively few, the worlds-senders are competing for them, fighting for power over them and control the development of history in those worlds through progressors. If the visited worlds is quite a lot, the value of each world is much smaller, and they may make different experiments on it. If the visited worlds are infinitely more abundant then worlds-senders, our chances of being visited are extremely small, that does not correspond to the set of observations. World-senders may not want that we also became world-sender and hinder the development of technologies that could lead to the movement between the worlds and antigravity, or even start a war against us or destroy us, if we create a dangerous technology from their point of view. If they want to destroy a great number of concurrent civilizations, the total destruction of them will be easier than sending of agents-progressors that will selectively destroy dangerous directions of their development. One can assume that if there is a way to colonize the parallel worlds, then there is a civilization that colonizes the maximum number of them.
This may explain the disasters of UFOs, if they really were, as a first attempt to implement interdimntional flight by some of civilization.
However, the fact that was discovered fragments of molten metal chunks from UFO and their isotopic composition corresponds to neighborhood confirms that this was a molten outer shells of vehicles from the parallel earthes. Such a shell may be needed for teleportation of UFOs in its world - but what will fill the freed place? If there is a vacuum, then will follow a powerful vacuum explosion. If there is an atmosphere of another Earth, it will put the genetic samples and pressure difference also will create bang. The existence of parallel worlds, and explains the possibility of spontaneous move of matter from one world to another could explain rains of frogs. You may recall the discovery of hollow metal spheres that allegedly have occurred in Yakutia, as well as fall of metal balls from the sky. In addition, molten metal, which is under the control of microwave radiation (but transparent to the magnetic field in the case of magnesium and aluminum), is possible to bend and attach it to form  sphere around the shape of various vehicles and aircraft.
Some UFOs may use the Earth only as an intermediate stop on the way to another world - and this may explain their strange trajectory, which is somehow related to the fact that they track down the crack between the worlds. If these worlds are connected by quantum Multiverse, it is not surprising that they can control the probability of a UFO. It may be that their metal shell protects them from rays of attention of the world, which collapses quantum wave function, and thus allows to move from world to world. At the time of transfer to another world containment evaporated and it remains only chemical haze of color. Angels Hair are also produced in some reactions in the molten shell. However, sometimes such interdiensional ship can fly with a cold metal casing, when it gives its shell to become cold in the air. What is sometimes perceived as an explosion of UFO is a situation where it simply isnt very effective in destroying its shell at the time of transition to another dimension. On the ground are falling shell fragments in the form of pieces of tin and molten metal.
The wreckage, which is said to be found in Roswell also represent pieces of metal shell (probably capable of remembering the shape and composed of the alloy of nickel and titanium). But what we believe catastrophe UFOs may be simply dumping its technical casing during teleportation.
Manyworld model explains frequency of UFO crashes Earth is the next available test place, where could be tested imperfect model, but in the case of expansion of space that would be wrong - on Earth will arrive only most effective devices, tested in a different place.
Rays of a UFO could be not spotlight, after all, because a simple modern infrared cameras could see everything that you need. They can be either technological devices, such as the dumping of excess of static electricity from the ship, or systems, of  unknown species, such as finding the door to other worlds, or systems of absorption of substances of needed micronutrients. Note that the rotation of molten metal is suggested by some options as antigravitatsionnyh engines. Finally, they may be rays that create ionization of air needed for supersonic motion of the UFO in the atmosphere (since the plasma density at the same pressure is much smaller and the speed of sound in it is more). Then the usage of these rays as weapons and means of lighting could be only additional way.
In this description of the UFO as interdimentional ship, we assumed that although the outer envelope of the UFO is a molten material under the control of microwave radiation inside is complex, but in general it is normal machine. More complicated is the idea that all of the UFO is the swirl of electric and magnetic fields, which contains a certain number of atoms. In doing so, such a vortex can not be a standalone device, but to be a projection, carried out from the parallel world. This was due for no inertial movement UFO and that it is itself behaves as a beam of a searchlight: moving fast, then stops abruptly. It can be assumed that UFOs are not the devices, but projections from another world (for example, because the full mechanisms of teleportation is not possible). These projections, however, can perform different actions in our world to observe, to examine the samples. For example, people did radar sensing of Venus and other celestial bodies, and this could be something similar. This may explain the chaotic motion of the UFO, like the movement of radar beams or strange rays around them, instantaneous movement, tremendous speed and disappearances, as well as the mindless consumption of energy to carry out simple observations.
I should note that the hypothesis of UFOs as a machine from a parallel world is not necessarily connected with the proposed here talk about the molten shell. In the end, the molten shell can be of a spaceship, and interdimensional ship can be entirely without such a shell.
Is easy to calculate the explosion of a UFO as the vacuum bomb - when it goes into another space. 1 cubic meter of air when filling the vacuum provides the energy in 10 ** 5 J., or about 25 gr. of TNT equivalent. 1 cu. km - 25 kilotons.
As a means of movement offered a vibration device surfaces, which should create an aerodynamic force, or described in the report of COMETA magnitogidravlic effect, which requires the ionization of air and a powerful magnetic field to create a driving force.
Car stops, as believed in the COMETA report, may be caused not only by the microwave radiation, but also by beams of protons, which could create the appearance of radiation passing through the wall - because the light is the result of inhibition of protons.

7. Travelers in time


In this same line is the hypothesis that UFOs are visitors from the future. This may create a paradox in time, which are dangerous primarily to travelers themselves. If they are not dangerous, it means that there are many branches of the future, and we return to the situation with Multiversumom.


8. Electrical life form


This is a hypothesis that UFOs is sort of an electric form of life that self evolve on Earth or beyond. In this case we, again, are in no threat from their intellect (as the super-AI is independent of the medium). The rest of arguments here are similar to those we have with regard to nanorobots of von Neumann probes.
You can try to describe the UFO as electromagnetic substance. Assume that there is a way to create sustainable robots, which are not composed of atoms. For example, there could be pseudoatoms like positronium, where the electron spins around its antiparticle - positron. However, it is not stable. However, we can assume that there are certain combinations of electrons and their spins and magnetic fields, as well as some magnitogravitatsionnye and quantum effects, which are sustainable. (See list of ball lightning hypotheses for more ideas how to do it.) And such combination could become as strong blocks for life, and elements of design tools. Moreover, if we assume that the substance has long been in symbiosis with the normal living creatures, and even participate in the higher nervous activity, it becomes clear their ability to cause hallucinations and other mental status changes in humans. This hypothesis explains the absence of inertia, the ability to pass through the walls and ground, the instantaneous acceleration and movement through the air without creating a shock wave, all kinds of radiation, and interest of UFO and fireballs to the sources of electricity. And also the fact that they often behave like intelligent animals that play and interact with people. However, this does not explain certain higher mental events, like predicting the future or adjust unlikely coincidences.
You can also assume that the electromagnetic substance are robots created somewhere once in the universe, and then apply it as von Neumann probes. (Examples of mechanisms established by the people, at least parts thereof, in which no atoms: radio waves, the Cooper pairs, flow of electrons in electron tubes.) Advantage of such robots is that they can be distributed almost at light speed and nutrition available in the form of space radiation.
If these creatures actually live in a symbiotic relationship with a man, they must have a specific form of toxicity. Here we can recall plot of the film "Final Fantasy", where global catastrophe is due to the fact that coming from the cosmos "electric robots" delete souls from the people.
9. Variety of parapsyhological events


The next group of hypotheses relates to assumptions about the relationship between UFOs and other parapsyhologic phenomena. The essence of all these hypotheses is that they alter the picture of the universe, placing human consciousness in its center.
There are two classes of theories - some of them describe the physical nature of parapsihological phenomena (some fields, particles), and others describe in what respect to the man are these phenomena (the demons, the soul, the divine manifestation).
Here, I will not discuss specific possible physical mechanisms that could stand for parapsihological phenomena. Some of them are discussed separately in chapters about Matrix, electric life forms and synchronism.
All parapsihological interpretation of the UFO can be classified by their level of solipsism. This is the difference between objective and subjective idealism. At one extreme, there is a description of the world, which is full by some energy, and another - a description of the world as a dream. Any parapsihological hypothesis must explain how the paranormal abilities arose during evolution. Hypotheses about the physical nature of the are following:
A) Objectively there are certain new physical fields and particles that can affect both the brain and the physical objects. Here the most attractive is the idea of symbiosis and some non organic beings, naturally evolved in the course of evolution.
B) Consciousness is more real than the world around us. Therefore, the phenomena of consciousness can directly influence the world. It has the following variations:

World is a dream. The whole world is a dream of some superbrain. And UFOs are complexes from unconsciousness or disruption in the dream.
The observer who cut a subset from the Multiverse by force of his attention. This hypothesis is good to explain the fact that UFOs are afraid of attention and the fact that they relate to the observer.
World is Matrix. This issue we will discuss separately.


Mental nature of UFOs can be described as follows:
A) UFOs are certain entities i.e., creatures composed of some form of energy. They may be called spirits, demons, etc. Separately, the assumption is that UFOs are souls of deceased people who for whatever reasons, have become visible for living persons. It is clear that such world can be a source of risk. Finally, the UFO may be beings who are in symbiosis with humans and have evolved in parallel with them, or even be parasitic on humans. This was due to devilish nature of UFOs.
 
B) UFOs are projections of the thoughts of living people. It was such an experience: a certain group of people in state of hypnotic dream visualized sphere in the air, and it appear; the next time it doesnt appear, but was filmed. (R. Monroe, Far journey).

B) One can imagine UFO as mental technology that is deliberate applying of mental forces. Some people think that when several people simultaneously visualize an object or create the intention that their operation is significantly enhanced in comparison with the intention of one person. Robert Monroe described as a group visualized the ball, and it managed to capture on film. That is, they created a UFO. Another example - resurgent spirit seance or of objects of ectoplasm - and psychic stress that the creation of the image is the energy of all the people present at the session. One can suppose that some ancient esoteric secret society is so successful in the development of this technology, learn how to create, through the materialization of the aircraft. This hypothesis would explain many of abduction, where ufonafty baked pancakes, made meat or have sex with abductees, as well as the existence of MIB. http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/__-
Or this technology is used by intelligence or modern conspiracy organizations.
Finally, we can assume that our world cannot be rationally known, and existence of UFOs with all its absurdity is consequence of it. Then no UFO model is possible, and impossible to assess their risks, which, of course, exist. Or the model of UFO is too complex to be understandable on our level.
According to Castaneda UFOs are flyers (Los voladores) that feed on human consciousness, and when their energy level rises, they become visible. For such being is much easier to became material, according to Castaneda, when most people sleep in the remote areas, there is low level of awake attention of people. I read the case of a woman (at Gershtein?), Who suddenly saw the creature, who said that he needs her consciousness, and then she fell into unconsciousness for few days. Seraphim Rose called UFO demons. According to the Keel there are UFO cases of cattle mutilations - the is cuts, exhaustion of blood.
Castaneda also describes the manifestation of spirit-ally - it was pure cloud of energy, but those who feared him, saw him as a monster. Likewise, Fatima and the children saw the Virgin Mary, but others saw only a white cloud. This is consistent with the fact that various witnesses disagree quite how many lights and what color it was a UFO, and that in every era of the UFO looked like the projection of images that characterize the period: in 1897 as an bloop, in 1910 as biplane, then as a ghost planes, then as the spacecraft with the cosmonauts. This suggests that the UFO can directly act on the perception of the subjects. Keel believes that all the manifestations of the absurdity of the UFO is a cover for their true activities. Assuming that UFOs are energy parasites, it might be understandable. This attracts them to the crash site, and to wars. The frequency of flaps may be similar to the frequency of flights in insects. In other words, the devil is not a philosophical abstraction.

10. Parallel civilization
Another variant is that on Earth exist a parallel civilization, for example, underwater or underground. It could evolve by itself, or be a settlement of aliens, or consist of such organisms, which we usually deny mind, like ants.
In the novel "The Swarm" of Frank Sch;tzing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Swarm_(novel) is described underwater civilization, which carriers are microorganisms. The report of A.I. Deev "We and our micro-organisms: who is host? (Les nouvelles esthetiques. Russian edition. 2007, 5, 112-123) shows that microorganisms in man have more DNA than the man himself and can control his behavior (Toxoplasma, rabies) or sexual preferences (pheromones as a product of metabolism of bacteria in the sweat glands).
In principle, we cannot exclude the possible existence of intelligent microorganisms: after all the computing power of one cell is enormous: it contains about 1 GB of information in the form of DNA and makes it over 1 million operations per second, and this is common, and not specialized for thinking cell. (The volume of conscious memory of a man, too, is about 1 gigabyte). How Sch;tzing shows in his novel, such organisms would have a huge advantage over men: they could not be destroyed, but they could seize control over living beings.
There were also ideas that the underground civilization might exist in the molten outer envelope of the Earth's core. In the existence of a hidden civilization on the land is hard to believe, because it would have to perform an economic activity - but here comes the saving idea of the caves, where supposedly parked UFOs.
These ideas I find unlikely, but risk is high because not clear who would be main on Earth.


11. The hypothesis of the collective unconscious

Unconscious of individuals, according to it, provides continuous communication, by or the usual channels (but invisible to the consciousness) or by some telepathic channels, and through it reaches a high degree of coordination of different people. That is, it can cause simultaneous hallucinations in a group of people. In the collective unconscious act allows active centers - archetypes. Some hypnotic experiments could confirm this hypothesis: for example, when people have negative hallucinations, and they do not see the person who is in the room. This story could hint at the fact that our consciousness is biased and in a state of trance, which is shared by all people, and we cannot discover it. Some cases of abduction can be explained as a condition of somnambulism, in which a person sees a bright dreams, and while moving in space, creates the material traces of the UFO, for example, circles in the fields or traces of landing. This hypothesis explains the small number of UFO photographs. In addition, it is good because does not require any mysterious physical phenomena, but is based on the expansion of our understanding of hypnosis. Nevertheless, there is no direct evidence. The opening of the collective unconscious would mean collision with inhuman (in the sense of not rational) intelligence. This hypothesis explains dream-like abduction and other observations, the ability of people anticipate future observation and the fact that different people may see different things at the time of observing UFOs. I, myself, in sessions of active imagination which I conducted to other people, was convinced that the human subconscious is capable of producing real-time video effects that are comparable to Hollywood blockbusters. Yet this hypothesis does not explain the different manifestations of electrical UFO unless adopt its extreme version, that all reality is hallucinations. However, it can be joined with other hypotheses, such as the existence of electric symbionts.


12. Random observations of another world


The next hypothesis is that UFOs are not trying to infiltrate our world, but thanks to spontaneously emerge windows, we see events unfolding in a parallel world. Pilots of UFO also reacted with surprise at the details of world opened to them, either do not notice it, and fly on their deals, and their routes have meaning in a different world. This hypothesis is not good because it cant explain interactions with UFO.
This description is close Rendls concept of "time storms".



13. Activities of the Earth's ancient civilization

You can attempt to explain UFOs as the action of postsingular civilization, which once had formed the Earth. However, we did not find its traces in the form of the exhaustion of ore reserves, archaeological artifacts and the mixing of genotypes in the wild. This can, for example, due to the fact that this civilization was non-technological way of development and has experienced some kind of magical singularity. Another option is that it went too far towards the return of land to the natural state, eliminating all of its artifacts - and then allowed to develop a new type of civilization. That is, the Earth is natural reserve. In doing so, it exists in form of nanorobots, or in the form of a more advanced technology, using tools made of electrical charges - plasmoid or some other ways - that is, mechanisms that are not composed of atoms and not tied to our three-dimensional space. While we do not see how to make these arrangements now, we cannot exclude that super-civilisation found a way to stabilize the plasma or opened magnetic monopoles. Nanotechnology is just a projection of our contemporary ideas about power over the matter, but the real power over the matter could be based on some new principles. The logical development of this hypothesis of reserve is that we live in a simulation. Also, the hypothesis of reserve could be applied to alien civilization which could create it.
Enhanced activity of UFO on Wednesdays and Saturdays can be attributed to the fact that UFOs are a product of an ancient, but of human civilization, for which these days have meaning. (Ancient Semites? And they are man in black?)



14. UFOs are glitches in the Matrix
According to N. Bostrom (Nick Bostrom. http://www.simulation-argument.com/), the probability that we live in a completely simulated world is large. That is, our world can be simulated on a computer of some super civilization. This allows the authors of the simulation to create any images in it, with incomprehensible to us goals. In addition, if the level of control of the simulation is small, it will accumulate errors, both in the computer, and malfunctions and glitches, which can be seen. Man in Black are Agents Smith, which erase traces of glitches. Or, some residents of the simulation can get access to some unrecorded opportunities. This explanation allows to explain any possible set of miracles, but it does not explain anything concrete - why we are witnessing just such manifestations, rather than, say, flying upside down pink elephants.
The main risk is that the simulation can be used to test extreme conditions of the system, ie, in the disastrous conditions, as well as the fact that the simulation simply turned off if it becomes too complicated, or complete its function.
The main issue here - the degree of control in the Matrix. When it comes to the Matrix under very strict control, the likelihood of unplanned glitches in it is small. If the Matrix is just started, and then given to their own devices, the bugs in it will accumulate, as glitches accumulate in the operating system, during its work and as you add new programs.
The first option is realized, if the authors of the Matrix are interested in all the details of events taking place in the Matrix. In this case, they will be tough to track all bugs and thoroughly wash them. If they are interested only in the final result of the matrix, or one of its aspects, the control will be less stringent. For example, when a person runs the chess program and spent the entire day, it is only interested in the result of the program, but no details. In the course of the chess program, it can calculate numerous virtual parties, in other words, the virtual worlds. In other words, the authors are interested in the statistical result of very many simulations, and details the work of a simulation of concern only to the extent that the bugs do not affect the final result. In any complex information system some number of bugs tend to accumulate, and difficulty to remove them is growing exponentially. It is therefore easier to tolerate the presence of certain glitches than to remove them.
Further, it is clear that amount of system with low control is much more then tightly controlled systems because system with low control could be run in large quantities and so they can be made very cheap. For example, amount of virtual chess game is more than parties of real grandmasters, and amount of home operating systems is more than amount of government supercomputers.
Thus, the glitches in the matrix are allowed as long as they do not affect the overall operation of the system according to its goal. Similarly, and in reality, if types in the browser has been displayed with another color, then I will not restart the entire computer, or pull down the operating system. But the same thing we see in the study UFOs and other anomalous phenomena! There is a certain threshold, above which where are no phenomena, nor their public can jump. As soon as certain events became closer to this threshold, they would either disappear or eleminated by MIBs, or it turns out that it was a hoax, or someone dies.
Note that there are two types of simulation - complete simulation of the world and I-simulation. The last simulated experience of only one person (or a small group of people). In the simulation, I probably find myself in an interesting role, while fully 70 percent of people in history were peasants. Due to the observation selection simulation, I-simulations should be much more frequent - although this observation needs further reflection. But in the I-simulation, the UFO issue must be has been laid, and the entire prehistory of the world. And it can be set on purpose - to explore how I will deal with this topic.

Further, in any information system, sooner or later appears viruses - that is parasitic information units aimed at self-replication. Such units can also arise in the Matrix (and in the collective unconscious), and they must work against the integrated anti-virus program. However, the experience of using computers and on the experience of biological systems, we know that it is easier to tolerate the presence of harmless viruses than they pay out to the bitter end. Moreover, the complete destruction of viruses often require demolition of the system.
Thus, we can assume that UFO are viruses that use the glitches in the Matrix. This explains the absurdity of their behavior, as well as the fact that their intelligence is limited, as well as that they parasite on people - because each person allocated a certain number of computing resources that can be used in the matrix. It can be assumed that some people took advantage of glitches in the matrix, to achieve their goals, including immortality, but the same substance made from other computing environments, such as simulations from fundamentally different worlds, which are then entered into our world.
Another question what is level of depth of simulation, in which we are likely to find. You can simulate the world with an accuracy of the atom, but this would require enormous computational resources. Another extreme example - first-person shooter. In it three-dimensional image of terrain is drawn as required, only when main character comes to a new place, on the basis of an overall plan of area, and some general principles. Or, by use of blanks for some seats, but the exact design of the other places is ignored (as in the movie 13 floor). Obviously, the more precise and more detailed is simulation, the less likely there will be glitches. On the other hand, the cheap simple simulation, will contain many more glitches, but consume much less computational resources. In other words, at the same costs could be done, or one very accurate simulation, or the approximate one million simple. Next, we suppose that the simulation is valid in respect of the same principle as for other things: namely, that the cheaper something is, the more often it occurs (ie in the world are more often glaces than diamonds, more meteorites than the asteroids and etc.) Thus, we live, rather, is within the low-cost simplified simulation, but not inside the ultra sophisticated simulations. It can be argued that in the future will be available for unlimited computing resources and, therefore, any actor will do a detailed simulation. But here comes the effect of the matreshka- simulation. Specifically, the advanced simulation can create their own simulations, let's call them the second-level simulation. Suppose, advanced simulation of the world of mid-21 century (created, put in a real 23 th century) could create billions of simulations of the world of the beginning of 21 century. In doing so, it will use computers of mid-21 century, which will be more limited in computational resources than the 23-century computers. (And the real author in 23 century will save on the accuracy sub-simulation because they are not important to him.) Therefore, all billions simulations of the beginning of 21 century, that it will create will be very economical on computing resources. As a result, the number of simple simulations, and simulations, earlier in relation to simulated time will be a billion times greater than the number of more detailed and more recent simulations, and hence arbitrary observer is a billion times more likely to find himself in an earlier (In any case, earlier then supercomputers able to create their own simulations), and cheaper and more prone to glithches simulation. And according to the principle of self-sampling assumption everyone should consider himself as representative of a random set of his copies, if he wants to get the most accurate assessment of probabilities. Thus, we have much more chances to a) be in the low-cost simulation b) to appear in the point in time before supercomputers able to create simulations exist (its true) c) to be in I-simulation d) be at the bottom of the chain of matrioshka-simulations, i.e. simulations of level N, where N maximum d) be in a simulation with high-level of bugs.
The simulation can be done not necessarily on algorithmic, Turing-machines in the modern sense. This may be quantum computing, and artificial universes, and neural networks, and the fields of cellular automata, and analog computers and anything else, which we are currently dont known. Although the results of correct calculations in them will be the same, their glitches will be to look different. Thanks to disrupt the boundary between human users and the administrator can fade, and the simulated beings will evolve toward the use of hidden features.
Another option is that the UFO purposely run into the Matrix, to fool the people living in it and see how they will react to this. Since most simulations, I think, intended for simulating the world in some special, extreme conditions.
Yet this hypothesis does not explain the whole set of specific manifestations of the UFO.
If the matrix is "economical", it does not calculate events which no one is watching. However, this should lead to overlap due to inconsistencies. The matrix can be of two types: either it computes the phenomenon, or it immediately calculates the "experience" of its subjects. In the second case it is easier to remove lining, editing experience of the subject. And in the first case the pads are embodied in the physical world in the form of anomalies in a literal sense of the word. In fact, any matrix is a two-level simulation: simulation of the external physical world, and the simulation of thought processes in the brain of the subject. These two processes are relatively unrelated and can be calculated on different machines. (For example, the original movie "The Matrix" the physical world is simulated on a computer, and subjective world - in the biological brain in the tube, which allows the main characters to connect to the Matrix.) In reality, there are phenomena that are difficult to explain otherwise than failures in the Matrix like the rain of frogs in a small patch of earth (But, of course, you can think of hooligans with a catapult or regurgitate pelicans.). The last story in this spirit that has occurred in Japan in 2009. http://pinktentacle.com/2009/06/update-tadpole-rain-in-japan/ (And at the end of 2009 from the sky of Odessa felt frozen bats.) Maybe they do not fail, but it is the ability of amphibians to cross from reservoir in the reservoir with the help of teleportation.
Simulating a higher level can always intervene in the simulation of lower level and to create a miracle. Since the upward (ie to the true owners), leaving a chain of simulations can be infinitely large (and given the multiplicity of worlds, then for every world there is such a world, who created its simulation, which means that there is a chain of owners of the simulation of any given length, that if aside from the mathematical subtleties, is equivalent to an infinite length), the source of miracles can be many, very many. On the other hand, since the number of owners of each of the next level a million times smaller than the simulations, the amount of attention to the hosts in the second level, which is attributable to an individual simulation will be a million million times smaller than the main hosts. Example: In some simulations have decided to create 1000 sub-simulation where subjected to terrible tortures of some heroes. But the owner of the first simulation replaces suffering in sub-simulation for fun, fooling with the first simulation, since according to his moral standards can inflict pain exists in the simulation at any level of depth.
Since all physical processes are reducible to computation, the only difference between simulation and reality is an abbreviation of the computation in order to save computing resources in a simulation (in addition to differences associated with deception beings who are in the simulation, about their ontological status - that is, the difference is due with "imitation"). And any reduction calculations lead to inaccuracies and anomalies. This argument applies in the opposite direction - the physical reality itself is a huge computing environment indistinguishable from the simulation. (And, perhaps, it somehow saves their computing resources? see about Bolzman brains here) As somewhere it was said: "The idea of the impossibility of magic is based on the idea that the universe is governed by simple laws." But, generally speaking, why?
Simulations, to reduce the computation, must first calculate the scripts, and then fill them with "meat" of details. Failure in calculating the scenario leads to absurdity. For example, a person must meet the lizards every 10 days on average in a particular area. And such a man tosses a lizard - but it is overlooked that this miner in the mine - and he finds this lizard rolled in stone. http://paranormal.about.com/od/earthmysteries/a/aa011704.htm
To discover its error matrix may use the reaction of people - such as tracking their sense of wonder. However, this opens the way to the inverse matrix manipulation - by manipulating your feelings. In addition, the direct intervention in consciousness may be restricted by the rules of the matrix (ie, cannot erase the memory).
The risk here is that if we pretended to be overloaded with bugs, the owners of the simulation can decide to reboot it.
A common misconception is that being located in a simulation, cannot detect it. The general rule in order to crack the matrix, is the superiority of intelligence inside the Matrix over the intelligence apparatus, which employs a matrix. Yudkowsky had great post on this topic on the blog Overcoming Bias. In this specific intelligence and his masters of computer simulation can be significantly lower than the average in the civilization to which it belongs. As a result, the task of recognition of the matrix is reduced to the problem of AI in the black box.
You can also assume that UFOs are not failures in the matrix, but its functions. For example, the manifestations of the mind of masters of the simulation. For example, simulation could have few "privileged users", in the spirit of "Agent Smith", or players in a multiplayer game. They are not the masters in the full sense - they are neither programmers of the simulation, nor those who have the right to disable it on a computer. They are not even its main administrators. However, they have access to such resources, which is out of reach for normal user of the simulation. Therefore, their intelligence may be very limited and consistent with the intelligence of our modern teenagers playing a computer game. But they are not human beings.
This option fits smoothly with the version that has been discussed earlier - that the Earth is ruled by a friendly-not-to-us AI. Recall that an important special case there - it is the AI, with failed mad friendliness. Obviously, it can create a lot of crazy simulations.
The next option is that the owners of the Matrix purposely run a simulation of some anomalies to examine our reactions. For example, they conduct research on the topic what level of anomalies is small enough that society can ignore it. For this they have launched thousands of simulations with different levels of anomalies: one observation times 1000 years, once in 800 years, and so on. They also could explore how society reacts to the existence of "spirits" or the arrival of "aliens". In the novel of Strugatski "The waves extinguish wind" is a similar moment when the unknown creatures attacked the northern town. But in fact it suits the superintelligence that investigated the reaction of common people to the unusual.
Another hypothesis of Strugatski is "tehno-garbage", as in Stalker. This tehno-garbage retains certain elements of intelligence, as dead robots. It is also plot of A.I. of Kubrick.
The hypothesis of the world as a matrix allows us to explain any number of "anomalies", but this contradicts the fact that the manifestation of a UFO seen repeated elements, which suggests that there are certain laws: for example, the drone of engines and stopping cars.

15. Manifestations of multidimensional world


In contrast to the hypothesis of multiple parallel worlds, each of which is a version of Earth in the Multiverse, this assumes that the world has the measurement of non-zero thickness, for example, is four or more dimensional. In this case UFOs are objects that have width in the fourth dimension. Let me remind you that pass of four-dimensional sphere through our world would look like as a first expanding, then squeezable ball. This hypothesis is good to explain strange shape and trajectory of some UFOs - they would be just part of a larger, but invisible to us objects. However, this hypothesis is bad because it does not explain many aspects of the UFO, including the status of observers.
It can be assumed that the world, apart from a few measurements, has two dimensions of time. One of them is perpendicular to the other. It looks like about a situation where the writer writes several drafts of a novel. Time within the novel and time linking successive edition are perpendicular to each other. For example, in the first edition of Anna Karenina the main character was ugly woman, but then she evolved into beautiful one, ie, in each subsequent version of the novel she was getting better.
16. UFOs are manifestations of the properties of holographic universe


There is a theory that in fact we live in a holographic universe. As a hologram, roughly speaking, illusory volume arises from the addition of two waves - the hologram and its irradiated light. The visible universe is the result of interference between two waves, and changes in frequency in both of them will lead to a shift of the whole picture. An example of the hologram can be Multivers as sum of wave and observer attention.
Hypothetical effect of cavity structures, morphological resonance can also be explained with the help of hypotheses about the holographic universe: the hologram in the same shape objects have common frequency characteristics (which is used for pattern recognition and, perhaps, takes place in the human brain - Pribram) http://www.galactic.org.ua/pr-nep/parapcix93-.htm
New interesting holographic entropy theory of gravitation is proposed by Verlinde: http://arxiv.org/abs/1001.0785
UFO then be certain parasitic resonances between forms of terrain, thoughts of people and time of year - which explains their attachment to certain areas, the absurdity and the relationship with the man and his unconscious.
Evaluation of the hypothesis: this hypothesis can explain anything, because it is not very specific.
Risks: Because this hypothesis requires a complete change of worldview, it also permits the emergence of risks that we cannot even predict with our current point of view. For example, we do not know what size might be "defects" in the hologram, and of what kind of power law they are subject.

17. UFO as manifestations of synchronism


Here the basic idea is that although each individual observation of UFOs can be explained by a set of natural phenomena or hoaxes, some of these events were so incredible, that look as if there exploded probabilistic bomb. For example, it is unlikely, but it is quite possible that two people will experience the same hallucination. I have already described the case of observing a red glowing cone in the village, where was synchronism between my desire to see something unusual and rare optical effect.
Synchronism can be explained as a manifestation of human propensity to detect repetitive elements in a random stream of signals, but another explanation is that evolution should have selected those creatures that were able to influence the likelihood - in the abandonment of more viable offspring. Similar reasoning is in the book The storms of time of Rendls.
Under normal circumstances, people neutralize the ability to influence the probability of each other, and we have a distribution close to random. However, in some circumstances, the ability of individuals may be cumulative, leading to a surge of incredible events. This is especially true for single improbable coincidence, where statistical distribution is not applicable, because the base.
On the one hand, the general vector of the probability of selection was to be aimed at increasing the probability of survival of individual animals, and with them and the entire planet. On the other hand, it is unknown how this ability works against a unique event, which is a global catastrophe.
Possible variant of this hypothesis is the idea of reverse causality, which moves in the opposite direction in the flow of time - from inevitable result to conditions which could create it. Roughly speaking, the anthropic principle is an example of such causality, because the properties of the universe must have been selected to the inevitable result: the existence of its observers (see also about Bolzman brains). If so UFO so not generates observation, but a message about UFOs in the future generates UFO sighting in the past.
Usually foresight is a negative feedback (do not go into a dangerous place), which does not affect the ability of foresight. But it is possible to imagine some kind of positive feedback, which accelerates foresight to the limit, leading to something like an epileptic seizure (which, roughly speaking, represents a group of neurons in the transition regime of selfexcitation because of the income on the output data with input). Example of Rendls: I will tell about Simon of London. In 1980, he visited a doctor. One day, Simon told him the contents of a very strange dream that he had seen the previous day. He dreamed that he in his hand appeared a long white scar. When he asked the doctor that in his opinion, could mean the dream, he asked: "A long white scar? You have in mind such as this?" And he open sleeve, showing exactly the same scar on his arm.
At first glance, this case does not provide anything special. Simon had a dream in which he saw that the next day the doctor to show him his scars. The problem is that the doctor showed him a scar that just because Simon described him during the visit. In other words, the time has committed a loop, because the cause of (communication of sleep), followed by the investigation (by the bed), but not vice versa, as was to be in line with our traditional understanding of time.
Evaluation of the hypothesis: Ways to study this hypothesis does not lie in the field of UFO sightings, but in the discussions about the quantum nature of the observer, Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox, Schrodinger cat and in experiments on quantum teleportation.
Risks: Risks are associated primarily with the change in the probability of risk of other events, especially the unique events, to which hardly applies static probability. Logical paradoxes in the flow of time can also be devastating. This hypothesis can also dock with the hypotheses of the holographic universe.
18. Quantum fluctuations and Boltzmann brains
 There is an idea that any brain of any man can with a small probability result from quantum fluctuations in the vacuum. This topic is well-known: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain , Andrei Linde. Sinks in the Landscape, Boltzmann Brains, and the Cosmological Constant Problem, http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0611043, Spooks in space
There is also a theory of the Boltzmann God - that is, superintellect, which arises in an absolute vacuum and from boredom creates a simulation.
Here we must still hold a clear distinction - between the Boltzmann brains and the Boltzmann thoughts. Where the first is a real brain, which can be quite a long time to work, and B-thought is only a single combination of certain cause-effect relationships (such as "face" on Mars).
The main difference between the real and Boltzmann brains in that the former should perceive the world and see the reflection of ordered laws that could give rise to them, whereas the latter can be seen fully chaotic world. In other words, Boltzmann brains (BB) should see more miracles. Hence the idea of the suitability of the BB for an explanation of miracles.
It is obvious that the problem of the BB in many ways is similar to the problem of computer simulations. In other words, BB may be called spontaneous simulations.
It is obvious that if a certain type of BB could be self-sustaining or self-replitcating, it would create a dominant class among all BB. (Just as the eternal cosmological inflation creates an infinitely large space due to the ability of primordial fluctuations very quickly swell with a certain combination of initial conditions.)
The strangeness of the manifestations of UFOs also suggests certain fluctuations. In general, the general property of anomalous phenomena is their scarcity, unpredictability and originality. This is very similar to the fluctuations. However, the classic UFO demonstrate some elements of the laws. Classic quantum fluctuations are micro-scale. However, if the whole our world is  fluctuation, the fluctuation in the space where it emerged a priori, should be comparable in scale with the our world.
Is easy to imagine a cross between BB  and B-thoughts. That is a form of fluctuations, in which thought is more convenient to occur. Rough example: In the beginning appears a typewriter, and then sentences are generated from its letters. In the end, just that there was usually observed universe: first fluctuation is the big bang, and then the sentences of the letters-atoms appear (which are moving from smaller fluctuations - the thermal motion of molecules and chemical reactions). However, the possible and another set of letters (Qualia?), corresponding directly to brain states of observer, ie Boltzmann typewriter. It remains to explore is whether it would be such a Boltzmann typewriter to create more observers than the natural universe and pure Boltzmann brains. If yes, then we are in it.
The emergence of powerful silicon-based nanotech computer from  vacuum is more likely than the emergence of an entire biological specimens because the mass of the computer will be much less (it may be several micrograms). The probability of spontaneous materialization falls very rapidly in proportion to the mass of computer, so most probable is the most "technically perfect" computer. This may be a quantum computer, which means it can be arranged as a sequence of transitions between electronic levels in some complicated molecule. Furthermore, such a computer can be more stable for a long time and longer exist in a vacuum than biological brain. Further, if such a computer produces a simplified I-simulation, it is even easier and more likely.
One possible way to get rid of the Boltzmann brains is to assume that our universe will soon self-destruct. Is Our Universe Likely to Decay within 20 Billion Years? Don N. Page http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-th/0610079

19. Unknown law of nature in the spirit of Definitely_Maybe " of Strugatsky and UN++ of Bostrom
We can assume that although the actions of UFOs and look pseudointelligent, but in fact they are manifestation a certain impersonal natural law, just like in the mirror reflects a man, but in reality it is only the result of a simple law: the angle of incidence equals the angle of reflection. One of the possible laws of this kind was described by Bostrom, and in literary form by Strugatsky. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitely_Maybe_(novel)
First I suggest a fragment from the article of Nick Bostrom Doomsday argument, Adam and Eve, UN + + and Quantum Joe." This fragment does not contain evidence that can be seen in the article itself or in http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument  This piece I need to come to the one nontrivial conclusion further.
"... The Adam & Eve experiments
The three Adam & Eve thought experiments that follow are all variations on the same theme. They put different problematic aspects of SSA into focus.
First experiment: Serpents Advice
Eve and Adam, the first two humans, knew that if they gratified their flesh, Eve might bear a child, and if she did, they would be expelled from Eden and would go on to spawn billions of progeny that would cover the Earth with misery.[12] One day a serpent approached the couple and spoke thus: Pssst! If you embrace each other, then either Eve will have a child or she wont. If she has a child then you will have been among the first two out of billions of people. Your conditional probability of having such early positions in the human species given this hypothesis is extremely small. If, one the other hand, Eve doesnt become pregnant then the conditional probability, given this, of you being among the first two humans is equal to one. By Bayess theorem, the risk that she will have a child is less than one in a billion. Go forth, indulge, and worry not about the consequences!
Given SSA and the stated assumptions, it is easy to see that the serpents argument is sound. We have  and using SSA, . We can assume that the prior probability of getting pregnant (based on ordinary empirical considerations) after congress is very roughly one half, . Thus, according to Bayess theorem we have
Eve has to conclude that the risk of her getting pregnant is negligible.
This result is counterintuitive. Most peoples intuition, at least at first glance, is that it would be irrational for Eve to think that the risk is that low. It seems foolish of her to act as if she were extremely unlikely to get pregnant it seems to conflict with empirical data. And we can assume she is fully aware of these data, at least to the extent to which they are about past events. We can assume that she has access to a huge pool of statistics, maybe based on some population of lobotomized human drones (lobotomized so that they dont belong to the reference class, the class from which Eve should consider herself a random sample). Yet all this knowledge, combined with everything there is to know about the human reproductive system, would not change the fact that it would be irrational for Eve to believe that the risk of her getting pregnant is anything other than effectively nil. This is a strange result, but it follows from SSA.[13]
Second experiment: Lazy Adam
The next example effects another turn of the screw, deriving a consequence that has an even greater degree of initial counterintuitiveness:
Assume as before that Adam and Eve were once the only people and that they know for certain that if they have a child they will be driven out of Eden and will have billions of descendants. But this time they have a foolproof way of generating a child, perhaps using advanced in vitro fertilization. Adam is tired of getting up every morning to go hunting. Together with Eve, he devises the following scheme: They form the firm intention that unless a wounded deer limps by their cave, they will have a child. Adam can then put his feet up and rationally expect with near certainty that a wounded dear an easy target for his spear will soon stroll by.
One can verify this result the same way as above, choosing appropriate values for the prior probabilities. The prior probability of a wounded deer limping by their cave that morning is one in ten thousand, say.
In the first experiment we had an example of what looked like anomalous precognition. Here we also have (more clearly than in the previous case) the appearance of psychokinesis. If the example works, which it does if we assume SSA, it almost seems as if Adam is causing a wounded deer to walk by. For how else could one explain the coincidence? Adam knows that he can repeat the procedure morning after morning and that he should expect a deer to appear each time. Some mornings he may not form the relevant intention and on those mornings no deer turns up. It seems too good to be mere chance; Adam is tempted to think he has magical powers.
Third experiment: Eves Card Trick
One morning, Adam shuffles a deck of cards. Later that morning, Eve, having had no contact with the cards, decides to use her willpower to retroactively choose what card lies top. She decides that it shall have been the dame of spades. In order to ordain this outcome, Eve and Adam form the firm intention to have a child unless the dame of spades is top. They can then be virtually certain that when they look at the first card they will indeed find the dame of spades.
Here it looks as if the couple is in one and the same act performing both psychokinesis and backward causation. No mean feat before breakfast.
These three thought experiments seem to show that SSA has bizarre consequences: strange coincidences, precognition, psychokinesis and backward causation in situations where we would not expect such phenomena. If these consequences are genuine, they must surely count heavily against the unrestricted version of SSA, with ramifications for the Doomsday argument and other forms of anthropic reasoning that rely on that principle."
Note that the same results of experiments Adam could be obtained by applying the so-called "quantum immortality", which more accurately called manyworld immortality (see my article about it: http://www.proza.ru/2009/12/27/1308 ). If instead the child's birth, Adam made a machine that would blow up with Eve at his dereliction of desire, before they will understand it. As a result of Adam and Eve would have remained only in those worlds, where the desire fulfilled, and they would be able to observe soon.
Next Bostrom describes a thought experiment "UN + +":
"UN++
It is the year 2100 A.D. and technological advances have enabled the formation of an all-powerful and extremely stable world government, UN++. Any decision about human action taken by the UN++ will certainly be implemented. However, the world government does not have complete control over natural phenomena. In particular, there are signs that a series of n violent gamma ray bursts is about to take place at uncomfortably close quarters in the near future, threatening to damage (but not completely destroy) human settlements. For each hypothetical gamma ray burst in this series, astronomical observations give a 90% chance of it coming about. However, UN++ raises to the occasion and passes the following resolution: It will create a list of hypothetical gamma ray bursts, and for each entry on this list it decides that if the burst happens, it will build more space colonies so as to increase the total number of humans that will ever have lived by a factor of m. By arguments analogous to those in the earlier thought experiments, UN++ can then be confident that the gamma ray bursts will not happen, provided m is sufficiently great compared to n.
The UN++ experiment introduces a new difficulty. For although creating UN++ and persuading it to adopt the plan would no doubt be a daunting undertaking, it is the sort of project that we could quite conceivably carry out by non-magical means. The UN++ experiment places us in more or less the same situation as Adam and Eve in the other three experiments. This twist compels us to carry the investigation one step further."
That is, if the outbreak occurs, the UN decides to reduce the expected number of people on M, not creating these colonies. That is the nature of outbreaks and with the help of UN resolutions seeking to reduce the total number of people.
Researcher of global risks is in a similar situation. If his research can lead to a significant increase in the expected number of people in the future, that is, to "save humanity", according to the reasoning of Bostrom, he must feel sequence of incredible events that prevent this. Conversely, if as a result of his research increases the likelihood of global catastrophe, he will be lucky. The probability that these events prevent him, is proportional to the expected increase in the total number of people as a result of its activities.
That is, to observe this effect, we must stand on the threshold of discovery, which will prolong the existence of mankind is at least ten times. Conversely, the discovery of this effect may be evidence of Doomsday argument.
A similar idea is used in the novell of Strugackih "Definitely maybe http://lib.ru/STRUGACKIE/milliard.txt. According to the story, some impersonal force hinders progress, influencing future scientists. One of them is approached by some form of representatives of the super-civilizations, the other as a secret envoy of the world hidden government, the third is visited by a beautiful woman and parcel of the liquor, the fourth offered to lead the institution, if he will throw prospective study. However, that force is ridiculous and not rational, so it's hard to believe its claims of connection with the super-civilizations. Gradually it becomes clear that this force is the impersonal law of nature, which does not allow to appear a super-civilizations, because otherwise the whole world would have long been super-civilizations (ie, here is used implicit form SSA as I am not in super-civilizations, so they are unlikely.) The nature of this law is needed to maintain a balance between chaos and neg-entropy, according to Strugacky, because a victory would lead to super-civilizations to spread it throughout the universe and to establish its order that would violate the second law of thermodynamics.
This is similar to the previous argument about the Boltzmann brains - that they may arise from vacuum, but are so rare, so as not to affect the average level of entropy. In other words, if inside of each b-brain will attend a number of entropy in the form of failures, and the term of its existence will be limited, such b-brains will be the majority.
Risks associated with the existence of an impersonal law, as well are described by Strugatskie. With an ode to the party against the law of nature is no arguing. On the other hand, they can use or evade it. If this impersonal law related to Doomsday argument, it is bad, because the essence of the argument in the statement of proximity "doomsday", that is, an impersonal force cannot simply explain the existence of UFOs, but just uses them to regress to our civilization and reducing the duration of its existence. And this pressure should increase as we approach the phase transition to a new level of development, but are sporadic and inconsistent, if we follow the logic of Strugacky.
20. Other
In this category I add all that I just do not come to mind, or that we cannot yet provide the basis of their level of development.
Furthermore, I believe that there are many hypotheses that I have not yet invented, or for which I lack certain basic ideas, like the idea of "nanorobots", which was necessary for the hypothesis of UFOs as clouds of extraterrestrial nanorobots.
For example, emergent nature of UFOs that is, they are not explained by a more simple explanation than the phenomenon itself. Why, in fact, all physical laws must be simple?
Or, for example, once in my head came a theory about the connection between Qualia and wonders: since Qualia can only be actual, all possible Qualia must simultaneously be present in the field of my perception. As a result, the reality must be tailored so that at each moment in my perception has to attend a small piece of each color.
Or the idea that evolution could be explained by the anthropic principle. That is all evolution led to the creation of substance, which could ask about the conditions of its existence. In terms of the previous stages of evolution, many matches would have been wonderful. But, continuing the same logic could be some important phrase about "anthropic principle" has not yet formulated? In this case the anthropic principle should be formulated not as a simple combination of signs, but as the experience (as a combination of signs is possible and without substance). As a result, I have to identify myselves in a universe where emotions are primary, and time flows backwards (ie from feelings to the conditions in which they might arise). But this is what is used in the "New Age" magic, where one first creates a feeling of possessing something, and then "draws" the desired object to him.
We can also assume that all people are gathered together one common world by the general position of the assemblage point, but beyond that everyone can gather - that is, highlight the beam of his attention from the darkness of the possible - any other possible worlds. However, the emission of such additional worlds are not joined in different people. As a result, appear partially materialized fundamentally different phenomena - in one case, the ghosts, in another technological civilization in the third-physical phenomena. They have almost complete internal self-consistency, with the exception that can be observed only by persons with the same position of the assemblage point. To move away from Castaneda, who proposed the term "assemblage point", I'll say "rainbow of atoms of experience or qualia" and that's why.
Two paragraphs ago, it was said that the anthropic principle requires not just a record of thought about it, but his understanding. Understanding there is nothing like experience, that is Qualia. Thus Qualia have reverse causality in relation to world events. World events should be such that it formed my set Qualia. Each has its own set of Qualia - Qualia rainbow. That is, a set of basic emotions. Although the experiences over the life cycle, the rainbow itself does not change (like not changing set of colors in the usual rainbow). But what if you change somehow set my Qualia, that is, to expand my rainbow?

20. Plurality and interference hypotheses


Just as a point of light in the sky can be firefly, birds, airplanes, satellites, meteor, comets, planets, stars and distant galaxies - the objects of different nature, so spherical objects in the Earth's atmosphere can also be objects of different classes - some may be linked to the human psyche, and the other be real devices from other dimensions, but our attempts to explain all phenomena by one hypothesis may be incorrect use of Occam razor.
Another list of hypotheses can be found here:
http://real-aliens.awardspace.com/real-aliens-meeting.htm


21. Possible hypotheses to explain the behavior of the UFO


Of these goals, some may be the final, while others - only the means to other goals. For example, fraud may be a means for parasitic behavior and entertainment, most likely, is the ultimate goal. The subjects of the goals may be governmental organizations, as well as the human unconscious, spirits or aliens. The goals system depends on the level of intelligence agent. He may be at the level of an animal, child, comparable to the human, more then man, infinitely superior to man, and inhuman.
0. The zero hypothesis here is that the behavior of UFOs has no goals, because it is not no reason - that is, it is certain mechanical phenomena - it does not matter, whether physical, optical or psychological.

1. UFOs are exploring Earth. But this goal is possible only if their level of intelligence is below human - as they require large devices for research, study randomly and are not hidden. Thus the child investigates anthill using sticks.

2. UFO play and have fun, watch for the entertainment on the people (tourists), or hunt them for fun. Again, this level of intelligence correlates with the level of the child.

3. UFOs are preparing for the invasion. Again, this is possible only if the UFO are more stupid then people - and in this case, invasion is likely doomed to failure (as in the novell Second invasion of Marcial). Because whether they were smarter, they would have won and we would not mention their presence. However, if the different groups of UFOs have different purposes, you may receive a group that will seek to invasion. But the invasion - this is not an end in itself. It can pursue the goal - the conquest of resources (although not known exactly what the resource is not enough to them), replication, removal of competitors, instinctive execution of the program, removing the threat of attack, entertainment.

4. UFOs are the result of a deliberate deception of people. Again, the trick is not an end goal in itself (if not fun - and in this sense of mystification), and the one who deceives is not omnipotence, because otherwise could directly reach his goals.

5. UFOs are trying to come into contact. And their failure to do so means that they have lower then human intellect.

6. The objectives of the UFO are incomprehensible for us. But perhaps we can understand them in the future. Targets may be simple, but have very complex means to them. For example, flying UFOs are something like a religious ritual they have to bring rain to the distant planet.

7. UFOs have a purpose outside the Earth's life, and only randomly appear on the Earth (e.g. they use Earth only for transit to another world).

8. Other UFOs have different goals. This sounds quite plausible, given the variety of manifestations. But this increases the chance that there exists a group of UFOs, the objectives of which would be hostile to us.

9. UFOs eat people. Mutilation of cattle, abduction can bring on this idea. But it spoke about their low intellectual level.

10. UFOs consume certain resources on Earth. But no trace of excavation of the resources are visible, and it is not clear what is special in the Earths resources, which are not exist elsewhere.

11. UFOs are fighting with each other. But why this should be done on Earth?

12. UFOs are parasitic on human beings and human feelings. The same do yellow press, if UFOs are its creation. UFO parasite on the experiences of people and uses their brain computational resources (such as viral marketing).

13. Manifestations of UFOs exist to hide from us some aspects of their activities.

14. They are trying to help people - exercise progressor activities. Meaning of demonstrations of UFO is to show us that we are not alone in space. What is the purpose of such progressors is not clear.

15. What UFOs do, is the only a step in a long system of goals, which we do not understand, with the methods of achieving the goals of the UFO differ from the methods of rational man (such as a sculptor of marble sculpting a figure out of granite, a sculptor-ceramists mold it from a piece of clay. Although they will have roughly the same result, intermediate steps will be quite unlike.)

16. UFOs are mistaken, thinking that their actions lead to their objectives, that is why their actions seem to us absurd. Again, this shows low and subhuman level of their intelligence.

17. UFOs arrive on Earth for reproduction. Absurd manifestations are  demonstration of their marriage. Again, this level of intelligence of large animals.

18. UFOs represent the goal of people. For example, if UFOs are the souls of dead, who have a strong attachment to the past life, and they were stuck on the lower level of bardo.

19. The absurd behavior also has its place in contemporary art. Most of the 20th century art, beginning with urinal of Dushan and Black Square of Malevich are nonsenses. Of these hypotheses most agree with the known facts:

A) Lack of objective
B) Study
B) Fun, mystification for fun
G) Deception
D) Parasitism




General considerations of the risk of a UFO

1. Do not provoke!


R. Reagan allegedly had seen UFOs twice in his life, before the presidency. Reagan on several occasions said that the threat from space could bring people together. His intent to create space defense system with all those lasers and beams of charged particles can be explained by his desire to create a defense against possible alien aggression.
However, it was very stupid! Because if any aliens existed, there would be no better way to provoke them for attack. Generally, there is conjecture that it is better not to check. Better not to check whether the Large Hadron Collider will create microscopic black hole. Similarly, if we can unveil those forces that are behind the UFO, it might provoke them.
One of the scientists said, in jest, that the risk of large hadron collider is that aliens will came, see that we have not yet discovered Higgs boson, and do not consider us intelligent creatures, and will destroy us. Here the main idea is that we do not know what criteria have alien intelligence for how dangerous or safe are different forms of life, as well as how valuable and not valuable.
One of the most provocative action would be taking a prisoner of war, even in case of the investigation of cattle mutilations. It would be more aggravated for a community of such creatures as their stealthness and nature would be under questioned, and for the human community, forced it to mobilize immediately upon detection of new predator. The seizure may not be as physical (hardly possible), but in some kind of trap in the spirit of Faraday cages or cells of the electromagnetic waves or something like that.

2. Lack of UFOs as a factor in global risk


Overall assessment of the risk of global catastrophe in the 21th century, leading to the extinction of mankind, is about 50 percent, according to estimates of various authors who studied this topic. (Which amounts to the probability of extinction of 99.9 per cent in the next millennium, if the same probability density would remain.) Humankind is in era of peak of critical events, which is called the Technological Singularity. I wrote the book The structure of global catastrophe and in the process of writing my pessimism has become so great that I assess the chances of survival of mankind in the 21 century as low as  1 to a million. In addition, there is a so-called Doomsday argument, which independently assesses the future of human existence, and it is very small. The main risks associated with the uncontrolled development of breakthrough technologies - nanotechnology, biotechnology and artificial intelligence, and respond to the crisis of complexity.
And then, may well turn out that the chances that we will be saved by some Higher Power will be higher than the chances of our survival by our own means.
For example, if we assign the probability of 5 per cent to the explanations of the nature of UFO which are related with higher forces, and 10% to that they decide to save us, then full chance of salvation would be 0.5%, which is 5 times higher than the chances of 0.1% survival in the third millennium.
Thus, the existence of UFOs may have a positive net contribution to the likelihood of human survival.

3. Attack on UFO


Early attack on the UFO with the help of some new weapons (such as radiation) would be very wrong action, as well as it could provoke large-scale asymmetric response. As soon as the UFO will realize that we can threaten them, they can take action to deprive us this opportunity.


4. Different intelligence


In addition, it is possible to separately analyze the psychology of UFO. There were instances when UFO destroyed an aircraft, just playing with it. Moreover, they had disabled the systems of management of arms. No cases of intentional retaliation in particular is known, but if you continue the metaphor: the child who plays on the field with insects - if the ants suddenly bite him, he can turn nasty, and destroy the anthill.
Jacques Valle: This obvious absurdity (of abductions) is merely a reflection of cognitive inconsistency or incompatibility problems that exist between people and this phenomenon. (Incommensurability, Orthodoxy and the Physics of High Strangeness: A 6-layer Model for Anomalous Phenomena Jacques F. Vallee and Eric W. Davis http://www.jacquesvallee.net/bookdocs/Vallee-Davis-model.pdf). In other words we can assume that we are dealing with mind of fundamentally different nature. It is important to emphasize that we know several types of intelligence (i.e. optimization processes) which are different from human. For example, evolution - it like people can create a well-adapted mechanisms, i.e., it meets the definition of intelligence as a process of optimization. However, it is absurd to attempt to contact evolution. A clear manifestation of the progress of human thought is designer with plaque with a drawing and a clear manifestation of progress in the evolution is eating of a victim by predator. Thus both the processes lead to the creation of aircraft with similar outlines and principles (of birds and airplanes). Accordingly, we can assume that there are other ways to optimize, which paint a completely different path toward its goal, and that such methods can be many. Of course, universal super AI could use any of these methods of optimization. But not universal would be stacked to one form.
Other forms of intelligence are:
the intellect of a child under 3 years old when he was just learning to speak, and which consists in the ability to find patterns in the surrounding world;
the whole intellect of human society, which invent natural language;
intelligence of bureaucratic state; and of science as whole
effective market intelligence;
intelligence of unconscious thinking, which is responsible for the creation of images in dreams; another unconscious intelligence which is responsible for pattern recognition.
animal intelligence;
intelligence of evolution including natural selection and gender selection.
intellect of modern computer - all those kinds of intelligence are effective in one application, but is powerless in another.

Unsuccessful imitation (black helicopters), the genetic experiments, strange man in black - all of these is attempts of so fundamentally alien to us intellect to work with us and to understand our way of life. And the inefficiency of this interaction is rooted in the fact that the intellect has no signs or language in the usual sense of the word. For example, people may attempt to communicate with the evolution of the following: engaging in artificial selection. For example, there were experiements in the domestication of foxes, which were selected on the principles of friendship to the man. However, there has been a change of phenotype of foxes - they have changed ears and muzzle, and they began to resemble dogs. That is an attempt to form a phrase in the language of evolution led to the absurd statement - that is the result that only partially resembled the one that was planned. Another example is the extermination of sparrows in China, which has led to an increase in pests. Or, for example, the computers attempts to suggest something, or to simplify the lives of users - often seem absurd, and just annoying. Some people tried to invent artificial language like volyapyuk. Or attempts to intervene in the market. (In my other article on the risk of SETI, I commented on the fact that it is likely that SETI signals would be understood. There is no contradiction here: in the case of SETI, we have a powerful effect of observation selection - of thousands of civilizations, we can only accept signals from those that use the radios in our understanding. And among them there will be those whose messages would be more understandable to us. In the case of UFOs, this principle does not work - we are faced with something like Solaris of S.Lem.)
Different types of thinking can share the results of their work, but could not coordinate the very course of thinking. The difficulties of translation often occur even between people of the same sex and age. The possibility that we will not understand each other increases the chances of inadvertent conflict.
We know that a foreigner in a foreign country looks like an idiot. Because he does not catch all the fine points of meaning of the native speakers. And this happened despite the fact that we are representatives of one species and live in one era. Of course, the absolute super intelligence would have 100 percent ability to mimic any type of intelligence, but not absolute, but superior to us intellect in his world would be very foolish in the projection of our world.
Human behavior only seems rational. In fact, in our every action affects tens of conscious and unconscious desires, hidden complexes belief. Even men and women find it hard to understand each other.
In the context of our discussion, is interesting one particular form of contact, which is a conflict. (Although one of the parties cannot take it as a conflict.) This is a situation where one party wants to force another to do something and / or threatening to use force.
Even worse, if what we perceive as a meaningful message is just a ripple on the surface of our consciousness, caused by factors that have a completely different meaning. For example, once I fell asleep and heard in the room as the clock ticks. But when I woke up, it turned out that water drip from the roof. Another time I heard through the sleep eerie music, and realized that it was sing of Demons and was frightened. But when I woke up, it turned out that the sparrows chirp outside the window.

5. Psychological catastrophe


Among other things, discovery of the existence of UFOs will be a powerful psychological revolution. Perhaps, as Jung believed, it will forever make human spirit hamstrung, as we would have to send to landfill all our science and technology, and find ourselves in the role of the aboriginal tribes that can, in the presence of the white man only to deteriorate. Jung: The moral implications of such a disaster are easy to imagine by the example of miserable decline of primitive cultures which is happening before our eyes.
Such a discovery may occur not only through the development of sensors, but as a result of certain actions of the UFOs - for example, long-term large UFO hovering over the one of capitals of the world, which will be broadcast on all channels, or a major attack of UFOs, for example, if UFO destroyed significant civilian object, likely a large civilian aircraft by use of its ability to turn off electricity. Modern aircraft is much more dependent on electronics - and we dont know what destroyed the Airbus of Air France in 2009 on the way from Brazil - the Brazil was in the area of aggressive UFOs on island Corales. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colares_UFO_flap. However, the distance to the point of fall to the island of Corales is about 1000 km.
In addition, we know that UFOs are observing by waves, and if it will be particularly big wave, the majority of people, including the notorious skeptics would be witnessing and it may turn attitude.

6. UFO Connection with catastrophes


We know that UFOs themselves, by their nature are associated with catastrophes - that is, they are often observed before, during and after various disastrous events during the war. What is the nature of causation here is not known. Maybe, just exacerbated the susceptibility of people. Maybe, there is a growing tendency to hallucinations. Maybe UFOs are the cause of some disaster or signs of them. Finally, it is possible that UFOs are simply curious to the disaster, and arrive to watch and even help people to mitigate their effects. Maybe they are souls of dead people or vampires eating their blood.

7. Eschatology of UFO cults


In addition, belief in UFOs may be part of the various eschatological cults. Vallee wrote that there were people in Brazil, who first preached on behalf of the UFO, and then began to commit acts of terrorism himself. It is analogous to how mentally ill person commit murders obeying voices in his head. Vallee marked connection between UFO cults and Nazi images of the world.
8. Catastrophism in the statements of ufonafts


In close contacts ufonafts have repeatedly stated that they: a) are concerned about the fate of our planet and the risks which people, including that they threaten the balance of the Universe, as what is happened on the Earth is important to the entire universe (K. Joule describes a similar story in the continuation of the book Messenger - Shamefull truth; in novel of G. Igen Quarantine humanity is a global threat to the entire universe by its ability to collapse wave function by acts of observation through telescopes and aliens made shield around the solar system) and b) that they can easily destroy life on Earth. While the entourage and the contents of the contacts are more telling about the cultural background of the contactee, some attention should be given to such threats, for example, because they are regularly repeated in different parts of the world from unrelated observers.
Ufonafts regularly warn about disasters. In this case, their small projections aboutan accident, the small earthquakes often realize but large projections of global disasters - do not come true. As a result, those who trusted to their projections, are fools, especially when warned about them publicly. It discredits them. This can be associated with the fact that a forecast of the disaster cancels a catastrophe, if the information is widely spread, which may be associated with temporary loops, and the following of logical paradoxes. With the help of a chain of true prophecy, and then one more false, they have people in the collapse, as if on purpose - that is, to behave as classical demons. Meeting with a UFO, writes Keel, turned atheists to religious zealots, and then to the terrorists.

9. UFOs and the Government



There are different viewpoints on the subject, and I do not see any evidence in favor of at least one of them. The easiest point of view is that the government believed all that nonsense, largely because anyone who is the subject of ufology, compromised himself as a madman - but within the power hierarchy raise above all, the people who avoid any compromise. Another view is that the government secretly investigate this question, and here the main difference is what they know: a) the same set of information that the civilians, b) the existence of certain physical evidence and videos c) shot down the whole saucers, d) catch living humanoids d) the whole underground base of aliens exist. Separate option is that the government concealed by UFO its military technology, or use the theme of UFOs to distract society from other problems. Finally, we can assume that the government or entirely under the control of a UFO, or fearful of man in the black.
Governments of the world could deliberately escalate the hysteria about UFOs in order to spend expend funds on the creation of a "defensive shield" (even if no UFOs exist), but for some reason, luckily, they do not it. As a result could be created a lot of useless, but dangerous for the people weapons, which could lead to global catastrophe.
The most reasonable way to deal with UFOs is not development of defense and a crusade against a UFO (which inevitably will provoke them and lead to premature battle and defeat), but as much as possible hidden project; the basic idea of which is that development of not military, but civilian technologies to the maximum extent in the future and then in an instant, they will be wrapped in military technology. In this case, the concealment of any information on UFOs and ridicule of witnesses acquires its meaning. This masquerade is not necessary in order to fool the public, but in order to fool the UFO and provide them with the illusion that the government did not believe in them or consider them to be extraterrestrials. And maybe I'm wrong that I write openly about it here.

10. Police of UFO


Perhaps exist something like Police between UFOs, which does not allow individual UFOs go too far in their jokes. This should inspire hope that it will not allow a global catastrophe. But in addition, there is little chance that a UFO will prevent some natural or man-created disaster.
Whoever was the source of UFO - the matrix, the spiritual world, aliens, or a parallel world, it is still a question about the level of police control of the supreme power in their world over some of its representatives. In one extreme version individuals do not exist, but they are all manifestations of a single subject and intent of the creator, but in other version UFOs acts at their own risk absolutely at their discretion. Medium variant assumes that there are certain rules with which the majority of UFO complied, but some violate - that is, as is the case in today's society.
The ability of UFOs to understand human feelings, and to respond to peoples thoughts mean one of two things: our thoughts, or have some kind of an objective nature (it may be qualia), which can be observed, or UFOs are familiar with the peculiarities of the architecture of human brain and human language.
The idea of police control is confirmed by a) the inability to photograph a UFO or gather enough scientific evidence about them. And also the fact that UFOs being avoid causing obvious harm to people, for example, preferring to cause injury to livestock, but not completely follow this rule. b) The existence of the so-called "men in black". The very fact that we know of their existence said about their low efficiency, if they are real. Low efficiency of them connected with their "stupidity" could be explained in two ways - or they really have limited intellectual resources, as compared with a human or is a powerful "effect of an alien" - that is their inefficiency stems from the fact that their world and way of thinking very different from human. Their interest in the human military technology is also not deep they are attracted to the entertainment aspects such as missile launches, while more interesting may be some mathematical calculations, computers and technology.
It could be concluded that alien intelligence not generated by the technological civilization.
One can assume that there is a third level of control above the men in black, which we do not know, because it finally becomes quite effective. This level of control may be related to the level of governments. In the end, enough to maintain a negative attitude of several dozen high-ranking officials to make ineffective any research problem.

11. The war between the UFO


Conflict between two civilizations or types of UFOs may put Earth in jeopardy.
Either the whole Earth is under the authority of one "civilization of UFOs", or are possible conflicts between several UFOs, if you them as intelligent beings. If there are an infinite number of independent agents, the scope of conflict will be low.
There are several reports of "battles between the UFO", including the famous battle over Nuremberg in the 16 century. Note that the higher is the intelligence of the fighting, the harder it will be an outside observer to recognize the fact of the battle, because it will be on higher information level (eg, the fight on the radio or strategies of the Cold War).
The risk here, obviously, is that either the war affect Earth (as destruction of an anthill by a tank), or if one side takes Earth as hostage if the Earth is valuable to the other side.
Magnitude of a possible war is determined by the capabilities of the opposing sides. Battle of two luminous balls has a local character. A battle of two galactic civilizations is global.

12. Riskiness of absurd behavior

"I think that it is much more likely that the reports of flying saucers are the result of the known irrational characteristics of terrestrial intelligence rather than the unknown rational efforts of extraterrestrial intelligence." Dr. Richard Feynman

If UFOs are rational, that is, their actions are reasonable means of simple and understandable goals, it makes them more predictable, and besides, it makes the possibility of negotiations. For example: research, collection of fuel as goals.
If their goals are chosen randomly from a certain evolutionary failure, or if their behavior is futile, or if they use a process of thinking, which contains errors, or optimization techniques, which differ sharply from the human, and if, finally, their behavior is deeply embedded in a culture alien to us - then this behavior would be absurd for us. That is, it will not be completely chaotic, but we cannot explain it in terms of goals and means.
In this case, our risk would be much greater. For example, maybe their ritual is to destroy every 500 000 years a habitable planet. Absurdity makes it impossible to generalizations in the spirit: once they have not destroyed us yet, then they wouldnt destroy us in the future.
An example of life is a big risk-taking drunk or insane by the casual observer.

13. Adjustment for human properties

The ability  of UFOs to react to human emotions, respond to the idea of people talking about one of two things: either our thoughts have some kind of an objective nature (perhaps Qualia), which can be observed, or UFOs are familiar with the peculiarities of the architecture of the human brain and human language.

14. Table of different properties, united in the idea of UFOs



The idea that UFOs are aliens spaceships by default contains several separate ideas:

A) That UFO is material body made up of atoms and independently carries out its motion ie the ship. That is an idea of what is a UFO.

B) The idea that this ship has aliens pilot - that is, living beings, endowed with intellect. That is an idea of who drives the ship, where he is and what is his level of intelligence.

B) The idea of from there they come in the our world - in this case, the perception that UFO is sent by the inhabitants of another planet, orbiting around other star in our Galaxy.
For example, it excludes the idea that UFOs are form of intelligent life, advanced in the photosphere of stars. In this case, the UFO is not an alien - even though it extraterrestrial, in this case there is no division in the ship and crew, and in this case, the UFO was not a solid physical body, although it may contain atoms.
Or imagine a situation that UFOs are a holographic projection created by a vehicle in Earths orbit. In this case UFOs are not autonomous, but just as sun bunny, or a puppet but, nevertheless, are the products of alien intelligence.
Other possible properties of UFOs can be summarized in tabular form. The second column shows the values for a hypothetical alien spacecraft. In the third column are given the opposite meaning, as in the fourth - some additional options in the same category.




Parameter Thesis Antithesis Paradoxical version
Power source internal external none
Origin unearthly earthly related to earth 
Control
inside outside none
Material consists of atoms in the whole solid body contains atoms do not contain atoms
Method of origin
intentionally created by rational beings self-develop as living creature    just happened
Intellect managed by superhuman intelligence manage by limited mind not managed
Attitudes towards human psyche 
exist regardless of the human psyche exist in collaboration with the consciousness of people a product of human consciousness
Goal
has rational goals, which we generally understand has goals which are incomprehensible to us purposeless
Attitudes towards human
interested in a man indifferent to the man reflects human interest in it 
Properties of the object continuous object composed of many independent elements (swarm) only appear as whole

Connection of UFOs with each other
takes part in the overall global plan of ufos each ufo operates within its plan no plan
Government 
government are concealing information government are in the dark and ignoring governments do not exist (they are under the control of aliens)
Connection with dreams
no created by dreams UFO influence dreams
Man in Black
government agents do not exist manifestations of the same phenomenon, which itself ufo
Unknown physical fields  antigravity none unknown properties of known fields
Hostility to people friendly prey on people outside of these categories
Sound emite them  during the flight silent caused by the sound
Space
freely move in space tied to the earth move with a man
Photos there are reliable photo of ufos all photos are fakes do not allow themselves to photograph / impossible to photograph
Time 
always existed appeared relatively recently ufo change nature of time
Locality
exist within their visible volume nonlocal has visible parts
Abductions take people to conduct experiments people imagine abductions people create ufos in dreams about abductions
Explaining of the phenomenon
there is one true hypothesis, which explains all the features of the phenomenon there is several different phenomena with similar appearence phenomenon has unexplainable nature
The interior of UFOs has cabins inside gateway into another world no internal volume

Imprints on Earth leave traces of props on the places of ground landings occur in the anomalous zones, which are latter named as places of landing hovering on air, have an impact on the ground

Influence to air
can move through the air, avoiding friction and shock wave transparent for the air / 2D objects illusion of percepting observer
The disappearance of objects
become invisible teleports disappear
Contact waiting until people mature or come into contact with some representatives are trying to make contact, but we do not understand them / have an impact on us not interested in communicating

Tangible evidence is result of accident dumped slag transform the  matter of environment
Crashes of UFO
UFO sometimes crashes shell dropped at teleportation accidents are hoaxes and staging
Validity
most messages are reliable almost all messages are either hoaxes or errors of observation UFOs can manage degree of authenticity of reports
Time travels able to change torrent of time not affect the time themselves are travelers in time / are logical paradoxes



15. Help in progress


Progressors (ie activities of alien intelligence on the Earth with goal to improve it) is the theme dismantled by Strugatsky in the novel The waves extinguish wind, where is shown that no matter how good intentions are guided alien mind, it would be his intention, and the loss of our individuality. For example, if this intelligence intervenes and stops the First World War, there would be no Russian revolution in 1917, neither Hiroshima nor a fall of Berlin, or no Moon landing but we would live a life in the role of domestic animals. And a wiser alien mind can understand this - so he can refrain from intervening if it is no global catastrophe. There is an idea that appearances of UFO are a way to give people some idea about intelligence in the universe, at least that it is absurd expressions are intended to not have too much influence on the course of human history.

16. Leakage of Technologies

Crashes of UFOs (probably deliberate) can serve as a means of diversion technologies of alien intelligence to Earth. Even if the technology could not be found, or their reconstruction, they attempt to reproduce may lead to new discoveries, as is the case with, for example, hydromagnetic aircraft engine (Cometa report). Or the mere possibility of some fundamental phenomena, such as antigravity or paralyzing rays will zap up research in this area.

17. Wrong flow of funds to the UFO

If UFOs do not exist in reality, the diversion of manpower and resources to this problem and the fears associated with it, and aversion to alternative areas of study, arising from the disappointment in ufology, may divert attention from really important problems such as the development of artificial intelligence, nanotechnology breakthrough, irreversible global warming and the risks of collider.

18. The psychological portrait of a UFO



The psychological portrait of a UFO: circles in the fields, cattle mutilation, abductions, attacks of chupas on people flying with maneuvering have a common set of attributes:

Attachment to a specific location and time and time of day
Speed and accuracy of performance
A recurring sustainable pattern and its slow development
The main consequence is that UFOs tend to unmotivated senseless aggression for fun, and for them there is no difference, whether they damage crops, livestock, the body of humans or the psyche of people. In all cases, they make a small incision in the main mass of the object. Their logic is fundamentally different from ours, making them virtually unpredictable. We cannot exclude that they based on the same logic could harm entire Earth.
Rays of a UFO could be body parts of these creatures, which consist of unknown matter.

19. UFOs and the extinct civilizations

The risk connected with UFO is much more serious than the risk of probable extinct civilizations, if not UFOs themselves born by a gone civilization - because there is much more evidence of their existence, and fewer restrictions.

20. Negotiations with UFO

There is an idea that if UFOs are controlled by intelligent beings, we can engage them in negotiations and thus increase our security.
Perhaps we could attract the attention of UFO, if clear and unambiguous way threatened "planetary suicide." And then, if we present to them at least some value, they would have intervened. Of course, I would not recommend this option of forced intercourse.
Keel suggests that the UFOs can blackmail the governments of the Earth so that the governments fulfill some of their demands. To this end, they could threaten a complete destruction of the Earth and make a demonstrative flying over the government residence, nuclear power plants, storage of nuclear weapons, warplanes, and dive on them, causing the accident. (Are Extraterrestrials Blackmailing Earth? By John A. Keel Kiel believes that from 1940 to 1960 manifestations of UFO had steadily increased, and in the 1960s began to appear cases of cattle mutilation whose purpose was to intimidate the government completely. It is not clear, however, why it was impossible to intimidate the government quickly with more vivid demonstrations with clearer requirements. And if such a demonstration had been, then why in 30 years the government did not respond to these growing threats. In any case, injury to livestock and overflights are still going on. U.S. took only two atomic bombs to push Japan to surrender. If blackmail is the case, then perhaps we should concede.
It is possible that some sort of secret agreement exists between the government and UFOs.

21. Evolutionary traces of the impact of unknown creatures

Animals tend to feel the fear in vicinity of unknown creatures. This may indicate that in the historical past ancient mammals were attacked in the spirit of cattle mutilations and as a result of natural selection have learned to fear them. (Like arachnophobia, serpentofobia, fear of heights etc.) Such a selection was supposed to take a long time, at least millennium. Moreover, these attacks should be large enough to create enough evolutionary pressure to create the need to avoid them.
In addition, people also have a suspiciously high interest in the topic of vampires, werewolves and other blood-sucking. It is not difficult to reconcile with the fact that in the case of cattle mutilations actually happening all over the disappearance of the blood of victims.
Thus, it can be argued that unknown bloodsucking predator exist on the Earth already tens of thousands of years, and perhaps millions of years. Who uses unknown to us properties of space, time and consciousness.
In connection with this is interesting, whether wild animals are the victims of mutilation of cattle, and if not, why not. Does the wild animals has the same fear?

22. The degree of indifference UFO

We can say that UFOs in general are quite indifferent to the fact that they can influence people and be detected. However, this indifference is not absolute, and they are to some extent try to minimize the extent of their influence. What it could be explained by - A) their level of intelligence (and, accordingly, technology) is so high that they do not care what we think about them. How do people against ants. B) their level of intelligence is quite low, and therefore they are simply unable to exercise sufficient control over their symptoms. C) their manifestation, for all their absurdity are not random and are completely rational reasons unknown to us within the system of coordinates.
The basic premise of the "security from UFO" is that we do not see much aggression from them. However, the degree of their kindness is very limited, from which conclusions can be drawn about the value of people to them. For example, there are cases when they caused harm to aircraft, or place them at risk, forcing them to change course.
The main issue of this value: is human life itself valuable to them, or they do not hurt people for whatever their own reasons? For example, that people did not pay them too much attention, or to save people for something, or in obedience to external rules imposed on them "police of UFOs.
It seems that life for them is not a value in itself, at least for some of their specimens. As a result, when external circumstances change, they can be much more cruel to people.

23. What information does give us a well-known facts about UFOs?

Most of the findings above made on the basis of sufficient consideration of speculative hypothesis. Unfortunately, there are no certainties - that is, the facts that the official science would not doubt. However, there are a huge array of "on the dubious" facts. Suppose that the majority of messages are correct. What are the implications of this can be done?

24. Space disaster and the power law distribution of energy of UFOs

Keel argues that the large fires in the area of Michigan in 8 October 1871 were caused by fire balls falling from the sky. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chicago_Fire and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peshtigo_Fire) Several similar cases was described in Africa. Tunguska meteorite is also sometimes seen as a "UFO crash".
At the same time we know that the Earth is currently experiencing a period of intense cosmic bombardment studied by Holocen Impact Group. Over the past 5000 years, they found 3 major events that may correspond to the fall of comets with diameters greater than 1 km. The last one happened in 1443 off the coast of New Zealand http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahuika_crater, the penultimate - the 5 century AD off the coast of Australia, and the third in a row - in the Indian Ocean between Australia and Madagascar, and was the strongest, causing massive flooding, and perhaps the legend of the great flood. It is evident that these events are grouped in an area of Australia, which contradicts the idea of cosmic origin (in this case should be a random distribution on the Earth's surface up to the hemisphere - as if the objects are fragments of the same body, dark comet, and move in the same orbit, they must fall to Earth from one point in the fixed field of stars, which is visible or from the northern or southern hemisphere).
12900 years ago, there was considered to fall of a comet in the Great Lakes in the United States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas_impact_event, which led to fires throughout the North American continent and the death of Clovis culture. However, Michigan and the city of Chicago burned in the late 19 th century, also located on the shores of the Great Lakes. According to Keel, the fires occurred due to falling from the sky glowing balls, according to some eyewitnesses.
The third major point of attraction of the fall of celestial bodies is the area of Lake Baikal in Russia. This is the Tunguska meteorite, Vitimsky bolide, and a strange Patom crater http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/_. In addition, Lake Baikal is a place of visual observation of giant UFOs and strange round holes in the ice. One possible explanation for the localization of all these phenomena - underground gas explosions, which are taken for a UFO.
However, we can assume that all these events are events similar to UFO. It is interesting to investigate if they obeys a power law distribution of energy in UFO sightings. However, I will refrain from naming these events as disasters or attacks.
And accordingly, it is interesting to know what the maximum size of "heavy tails" at this power law. That is the probability of an event of this kind, which will lead to total destruction of humanity, on the basis of this distribution. Power laws typically have very heavy tails.

25. Hypothetical weapons that people can use against UFOs
None of this should be done in my opinion.
1. The directed beam weapons. Lasers, lasers with nuclear pumping, focused radio waves from radar, streams of charged particles from accelerators, bright spotlights. It is the most accessible and it can build on the target instantly. If the UFO emits a certain range, it must accept the energy in these bands (radio, light). Furthermore, as if afraid of the UFO light, as well as observations of the night more.
2. Nuclear weapons. It is unlikely that it can quickly deliver to the detected UFOs.
3. If a UFO associated with psychic phenomena, a group of "psychics" can concentrate on UFOs and to influence it.
4. Nanorobots. Floating in the air nanobot could be close to the UFO and somehow try to get into it unnoticed.
5. Artificial Intelligence. Watching UFOs through a powerful system of telescopes, it can detect patterns in their behavior, calculate their language and enter them as a computer virus.
6. The discovery of fundamentally new effects, such as antigravity, and use of it to reject the UFO or just testing the impact.
7. Informational influence: attempts to enter into negotiations with a UFO or send a message.
One of the possible risks is that people hurt themselves, fighting with the real or imaginary UFO. For example, during the so-called Battle of Los Angeles, where in 1942 the city witnessed an unidentified object passed over which was thought to be Japanese raid, there were killed three people because of the debris from firing guns. Observations of unidentified underwater UFO in Sweden spurred an arms race in this country.

26. UFOs and the blood

Mutilation of cattle - drunk blood. Red rain in Kerala and many more where - see the Fort - in the form of blood.
Cut animals as cooked dishes. Fantastic. Nano-robots in the blood. Detection gelatinous mass about meteorites - a colony of nanorobots?
Any activity of UFO, which has no meaning in itself, but has in the sense of the information for their system - we would conventionally call "entertainment of UFOs." Many examples of human activities: for example, food. We eat not only for the replenishment of substances. We eat for entertainment, for communication, for beauty visible by eyes. Or consumption of prestige goods that enhance the social status of their customers: Hammer, jacket. The jacket is necessary, but not because that it warm. It is required for membership in a particular social group. That is "fun" is not random and unnecessary activity. You can call it a symbolic activity.

Deevs report on the role of microorganisms in man: not man is the owner, but they are the master of man. At 10 times the volume of information in DNA.
I am reminded of the sacrifice of cattle in antiquity - is not there a similarity with the cattle mutilations? Communication with the blood of sacrificial rites - still sacrifice sheep throats cut. It is a kind of inorganic beings, which in exchange for cattle and the blood of the tribe has provided services or policy. This is similar to the Old Testament God. Mystic blood is present in Christianity - the sacrament.
What is so important is contained in the blood that its needed "hunters" who commit injury to livestock?
In addition, those parts that are removed in cattle mutilations are parts, through which passes a lot of attention and pleasure - lips, eyes, genitals and rectal orifice.
Population growth of UFO. If they are creatures that feed on blood, then their number should increase as their reproduction. In this case, they would have to destroy their population of victims, if not some kind of super-predator, which limits their population. Or if they reproduce very slowly. The growth of human population had to give them a chance to increase its population. If they are able to multiply faster than a human, then there is the risk that they will eat all people.
27. Bayesian estimate of the probability of real existence of UFOs

In Bayesian logic is considered the original (a priori) probability of the truth of some hypothesis, and then how we can increase it, having some evidence, which itself has a certain level of confidence. Suppose that P0 is a priori probability of the existence of UFOs as a real phenomenon (assuming here for simplicity that this is the case of high strangeness, deliberately unexplained in the usual physics), and it is equal to 0.001. Then, if we encounter an absolute liar who tells us that he saw a UFO, we did not have to change their a priori probability estimates. If we encounter an absolutely honest man who will say the same thing, then we should replace it to 1. But if we encounter an observer, to whom we entrust only 60 per cent (that is, messages that are true in 60 cases out of 100), here comes into effect Bayes' theorem, which allows us to calculate the amendment. http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/_, see an intuitive introduction to Bayes' theorem in English from Yudkowski http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes
We note an important point - we cannot measure the extent of the falsity of a man, on the basis of his statements about the paranormal, and then use this estimate of its falsity, in order to refute the same of his statement. That would be circular logic. For example: "Ivan said that he had seen a green horse. It is very unlikely that there is a green horse, so Ivan - a liar. But once Ivan - a liar, then his claim about the existence of a green horse is false. We must evaluate the falsity of the man on his other statements.
Thus, from Bayes' theorem, it follows that each of the following message on the UFO will change the a priori estimate rates of P (the message is true) / P (false message) = 60/40 = 1.5 times in our case. After receiving 20 messages a shift rate will be 3325 times (1.5 in 20th grade). That is, if in the beginning of our reliance on the existence of UFOs was 1 to 1000, but now it is 3325 to 1000. Turning to the likelihood, we get: 3325 / (3325 +1000) = 76%.
If the exact form of the formula:
P (UFO / certificate) =
  P (NLOishodno) P (the message is true) / P (false message)
= ------------------------------------------------- ---------------
  1 + P (UFO initially) P (the message is true) / P (false message)
If, however, we will have 40 witnesses that we have a little confidence, then Bayesian impact of these messages will be 1 million to 1, and the probability of the reality of UFOs became 99.9%.
That is, if we meet 40 witnesses who appear to us somewhat accurate, that is, that in principle we tend to trust, then this is enough to bring to nearly 100 per cent of our estimate of the actual existence of the phenomenon, as it were, the initially small it was not.
Note an important difference. 100 000 messages with certainty in 50 per cent did not change our initial assessment of the reality of UFO phenomenon. But enough just 40 messages with certainty at 60 percent each, to bring it closer to 100%. In other words, several reliable reports are much more important than a myriad of ill-founded communications. However, the relatively small array of messages, a little more reliable than the random level, can completely turn over our original estimate.
The main objection to the above argument is that jn Earth there are billions of people, and among them there is several thousands of explicit professional and the mentally ill and prone to self-deception liars, which is sufficient to fabricate thousands of highly credible reports, which will then be replicated by researchers and gullible media. Some of these liars are able to masquerade as respectable people that generally tend to fraudsters. In other words: every person in their lifetime makes millions of observations of different objects. Not surprisingly, among those millions are several observations that he could not identify and which made him a strong emotional impression.
Bill Badger 26 Feb 89 wrote the text with a description of how should be applied to the Bayesian analysis set of hypotheses about the nature of UFOs. http://www.textfiles.com/ufo/bayes.ufo (a text file). To do this, should be built mutually exclusive and a complete list of hypotheses, which in our case is not quite true, as suggested by me a list of hypotheses is built on the principle of self-consistency of hypotheses.
Another review of the possibility of applying Bayesian logic to the problem of UFOs is here: Scientific Inference (Sturrock Panel Report on UFO Physical Evidence) http://www.ufoevidence.org/documents/doc536.htm 
To estimate a priori probabilities of different scenarios, you can use statistics compiled by A. G. Lee on Poltergeist. These data are relatively independent of data on UFOs, and they can be regarded as experimental evidence of various types of human mendacity when reporting anomalies. The difference of UFO sightings is likely to be that when UFO sightings will be more false perception of real objects. (A. Lee "The study of fire "and" motor "poltergeist with continuous video monitoring systems in the visible and infrared parts of the spectrum. Service ambulance with poltergeist. Parapsychology and Psychophysics. - 1997. - 1. - P .136-141). He showed that of 86 cases, 22 were false comic calls, 23 were erroneous perception of ordinary events, more 30 - fantasies of the mentally ill, and 9 - plots which was arranged one family member against another (here it is important to note the difference between the material plot, which requires sustained efforts and motivation of another person, something that, who gives the message, and one-off comic call, where the false message, and events generally do not happen and finally ravings of a mentally ill, who takes his fancy as the reality). In 2 cases the phenomena were confirmed by observations and cases of deliberate deception could not be detected. Hence the following a priori probabilities: a false message - 25%, erroneous perception - 25%, raving mad - 35%, the material mystifications - 13%, unexplained phenomena - 2%.
Even if all reports of UFOs are false, this does not imply the falsity of hypotheses about the nature of UFOs, for example, it does not follow that in our solar system is not alien spacecraft, or that we do not live in a simulation.
If UFOs appear with equal frequency in the Earth's atmosphere and in space, in any sector of the review aimed at the sky, we could see a lot of objects (analogous to the paradox of the sky).
Hypotheses about the nature of UFOs can apply the method AIXI. http://www.hutter1.net/ai/aixigentle.htm This method is intended to allocate the maximum amount of information from the available data and used in the development of AI. It consists in the fact that developed a full set of hypotheses that could explain the data, but the more complex hypothesis, the less likely a priori attributed to it, thereby applying Occam's razor. (The complexity of the hypotheses described in terms of complexity of the algorithm for the Turing machine, which it generates, which is convenient for simple math tasks.)
Generally, it is interesting phenomena, in which at least one type of uncertainty will almost certainly cut off. For example, crop circles - there is no doubt that the circles do exist and that they made by a reasonable creature (even the theory that they are "natural computer" on the basis of some groundwater discharges speaks of a new type of mind). As a result, there are only two alternatives either hoaxer, or any other intelligence. In the case of cattle mutilation phenomenon itself is beyond doubt, but sufficiently strong is natural hypothesis predators or cracking during decomposition.
28. Study of UFOs in the USSR

In studying the history of UFOs in the USSR is the strangest thing - a lack of response to the events of 1947 in the United States. All top secret should have been interested in tips - it is only that there had stolen the secrets of the atomic bomb and brought pieces of plutonium. Maybe it's the secret trials of American wonder-weapon? Maybe Americans really came into contact with the Martians, and is now preparing to attack the Soviet Union together? Thus, it is inevitable that the USSR had created a kind of a secret group, which investigated the problem of UFOs in 1947, or had existed before. And where is traces of it? And according to official data, it was formed only in 1980 and one not dont take it seriously. It looks like to cover up operation.
Objections that the soviets initially rejected the UFOs as something "non-materialistic" is no good, because they could not know this, A-bomb had just done, but it turns matter into energy.

29. UFOs and parapsychology

We can be almost sure that if some psi exist then UFO phenomenon is a connection with it. For example, if psi phenomena manifest a new form of interaction of matter, different and superior to our minds should know about this method of interaction, and use it to influence people, and for other activities. For example, if telekinesis exists and is explained by anti-gravity, then UFOs can be used for antigravity flight.
If no psi phenomena exist, it will allow a high degree of confidence to reject a number of hypotheses about the nature of UFOs (directed hallucinations, electrical life forms, etc.)
However, the study of psychic phenomena, although smaller, is but more predictable and repeatable in the laboratory then UFO study (see the work A.G. Li.)

30. Concealing information about UFOs Governments

Half of the literature on UFOs is devoted not to the observations and hypotheses about their nature, but to the search for evidence of concealment of information about them by governments. I am inclined to feel an innate aversion to conspiracy theories and cannot draw any conclusions about the truth of these allegations. In general, I think that most conspiracy theories are false (at least because they are mutually exclusive).
It could be argued that the more Governments are aware of UFOs, the better they know how to safely interact with them, and the less overall risk. For someone disclosure has already happened. And if the UFO did not "revolt" against that, then the risk of further dissemination of information about them is not very high - that is the critical threshold of interaction with the world of UFOs from their point of view has already passed.
Still, I do not believe in the ability of governments themselves correctly interpret all the facts, examples of which is that the financial crisis of 2008 caught them as surprise.

31. People as a threat to the UFO

The opposite situation - that the people will conquer the world of UFOs and use a UFO, as if they were whales or Indians. The whales are killed by hunting, the Indians are killed by diseases and alcoholism. If people destroy a whole species of living and partly rational beings, then it too will be a catastrophe.

Possible ways of UFO confrontation with humanity

1) A sudden momentary complete destruction of mankind. One of the likely options. This happens after we pass a certain unknown to us threshold in our development, after which begins a danger to them. The higher is intelligence UFOs, the more sudden and unlike the previous behavior will be their reaction. But if their intelligence is high, and they still retain us, they believe that we have never been able to pass this threshold.
2) The gradual conquest, in the spirit of "War of the Worlds of HG Wells. I find this option is unlikely, since it involves two roughly equal opponents, with a relatively small advantage of one of them.
3) A catastrophic event, which then leads to the gradual pollution of the Earth. For example, a large UFO incident. Or people get knowledge about the new weapon, which will lead to world war and disaster.
4) The enslavement of people. Power over governments, secret zombie people, open "contact" with the subsequent installation of his control.
5) Hidden harm. "How do you know, - wrote Jacques Vallee - if an apparently "non-threatening" by our standards, is not really dangerous on a bigger scale? In our laboratories, we're growing cancer in mice and guinea pig, all the time offering friendship to both. (Jacques Vallee, Anatomy of a phenomenon ).
6) A significant limitation of the capacity of mankind. (Restriction of access to space, undermining faith in ourrself, stop the world of science through access to other people's discoveries.)
7) The irrational war. Example: "Revenge of the herd of mad buffalos. Or cattle mutilation on a massive scale, if their number will increase millions of times and will be sent to the people. This may or may not lead to the extinction of people.
8) The invasion of people in their world, part of its development and coming out of some hostile forces.
9) People master the world of UFOs and destroy them.
10) Cold War. Maintaining a balance.
11) The panic caused by the active manifestation of the UFO, psychological catastrophe.
12) UFO provoke, intentionally or not, nuclear war between people.
As to how humanity will continue to develop interaction with the world of UFOs, consider the following classification:
1) The sudden unprovoked attack.
2) Passage of humanity a certain threshold, which is unknown to us, but that a UFO is considered dangerous for themselves.
3) "The opening of the UFO" and a kind of active interaction with their world, followed by an attack or battle.
4) The joint evolution - a positive scenario.


Cognitive biases in the risk assessment of UFO


The human mind always tries to expunge the intolerable from memory . (Menkel of forgotten Great influenza pandemic.)
All that we know and do not know about the UFO is one large cognitive bias.
Assessing the risks associated with UFOs, we are under influence of all well-known cognitive biases, which are described in the article Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks. (Yudkowsky, E. 2006. To appear in Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford University Press, 2007. http://www.singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf) and in the second part of my book The structure of global catastrophe.
Namely, we are talking about overconfidence of people, forcing them to overestimate the reliability of their chosen hypothesis, the inability of people to evaluate small risks with large effects, etc.
Cognitive bias in respect of UFOs focus on three points:

A) The very fact of their existence. Many important risks depend on the existence ill-provable things, such as microscopic black holes at the collider, or the possibility of a superhuman AI. And everywhere was a dispute between agnostics and enthusiasts. However, in no one of these phenomena one party is involved in forgery of public documents and evidence, and the other spend its efforts not on the analysis of arguments, but in search of fraud. In the case of UFOs, as pointed out by Hynek, we have three levels of hoaxes: by eye-witnesses, by military and by UFOs themselves. In addition, the topic of UFOs has such property that any researcher seriously involved in it falls outside academic environment - and vice versa, since the topic is free from the academic environment and it attracts all felt from it (including me), and generally attracts nuts. As a result, the level of control over the cognitive biases is waning, and they bloom in full flower. One rationalist  said that he not going to look at the UFO, even if he was told that it landed outside his house, because to be rationalist is a priority to reject any paranormal phenomena. The question of the existence of UFOs is strongly linked to the wishes of the people. Large number of people would like to see UFO as real phenomena, simply because it makes the world interesting, and a person has innate interest in the mysterious. However, another group of people - debunkers - gets some pleasure from exposing tricks and refutation of the myths, because it probably allow them to feel smarter than other people. However, neither group recognize that even a very small chance of the reality of the phenomenon has significant implications when it comes to global security.

B) The question of which of the hypotheses best explains the observed phenomena. Here the main debate arose from the 1970's. And the main hypothesis of the origin of UFO was the idea of the alien ship in spite of all its obvious shortcomings. This idea is so permeated the entire discussion, that even trying deliberately abandoned it, it is hard not to think in its terms, such as: ship, it, landed, aliens, works, rays.

C) The question of whether UFOs a threat to the very existence of mankind. The main cognitive bias here is that this issue is not in focus - in any case, I found no specific studies of this. If it comes to the risks and UFOs, the global risks are at the end of the list of threats to individual aircraft, witnesses and national security. And one simply has no power to discuss this problem - because all the forces has gone on debates about the reality of UFOs, about hypothesis to explain it and about the question of small risks. However, global risks are not a linear continuation of the small risks. For example, parents may punish the child (ie, create a small risk in its system of his values), but will do everything to save his life. Conversely, owners of animal farm can nurse piglets, only to kill them at the end.
There is also confusing of so called exo-humanism - namely, idea that technically superior civilization must precede us also morally, and therefore, should be careful and not offensive to humanity. Not only this reasoning is false because there are lots of examples of how technologically advanced civilization on Earth cause harm to the less developed ones, and in general this reasoning is probabilistic in nature and not mandatory. But still it is itself based on the same persistent conjecture about UFOs as alien ships.
An important cognitive biases that affect the study of UFOs is a need for a miracle. Having miraculous is pleasant and increase self-esteem. Miracles from ancient times used to achieve power.
In addition, the study of "important" phenomenon raises an illusory social status of the researcher (ie, his self-esteem, uncorroborated admission by the company or backed by the recognition of outsiders). Healthy person calculate the self-esteem based on his own ideas about the value of its activities, and based on feedback from other people. Low self-esteem leads to depression, but too high - to insanity (eg "Napoleons" in the mental hospital). The driving mechanism here is the transformation of high self-esteem in the fun.
Jacques Vallee gives a list of 7 common mistakes that are allowed in discussions about UFOs in the book Revelations.
1. Transfer of strangeness. If approved by the A (aliens have), and then B (a spoon can be bent) that the person perceives as a proof of A by B.
2. Ratchet effect (ie, latch). "Most people who are keen with paranormal phenomena, never returns to the usual notions of world, after they were able to verify the reality of a supernatural event, even if later it was revealed clearly erroneous."
3. Sequence of errors. Researcher, once fooled, continues to trust the person deceived him to save the sense of access to exclusive information.
4. The attractiveness of physical evidence. Researchers are more inclined to believe the material evidence, although they can also be easy spoof. In addition, the words of real evidence have more confidence, although it is still only words, not the evidence itself.
5. Illusion of coconut. Named in honor of the history of the Indian saint, which could materialize the things inside a nut, but when they brought him a nut, he asked But who allow you to take it? That is, until you only allowed to look at the nut, but do not hold it in your hands, it is impossible to know what happens. "If tomorrow the U.S. president would declare that aliens landed on Earth and kept in captivity at a secret base in New Mexico, how the scientific community will be able to verify the truth or not?" If you found something mysterious, is it cannot be tampered with other scientists with a higher scientific base?
6. Combining riddles. When two strange incidents occur almost simultaneously, it seems that they belong to the same phenomenon.
7. Exaggeration of secret. If something is dipped from government documents, it does not mean that it is a terrible secret. It's just a habit of bureaucrats to erase parts.
See also the work Sovereignty and the UFO. By Alexander Wendt and Raymond Duvall. Political Theory Journal
Conclusion. Hostility of UFOs and global risks

The relationship between the hostility of some specimens of UFOs and so, whether the UFO phenomenon in general, constitute a global risk is the opposite. For example, if UFO show hostility at a lower level - say, kidnap people for experiments, dealing vampirism, kill people for entertainment - that means that their intelligence (and global coordination) is low, and the global risk is not great. Similarly, the wolves threaten the travelers in the forest and are hostile to them, but do not pose a global risk. Conversely, if the intelligence of UFOs is high, they could meet their needs without causing harm to people or hiding it well. Example: a farm worker cares with love for cattle are up to one point, until there comes a moment of slaughtering.
Another example: the criminal offense is a continuous and easily observed phenomenon, but it doesnt represent global risk. Nuclear weapons in 60 years after Nagasaki was the direct cause of death only a few dozen people, and in the last 30 years are generally not observable, except a few "earthquakes". However, nuclear weapons are a global risk.
The existence of any uniform rules of conduct of the UFO over the Earth, even positive to human, should alert us as it imply high global coordination and hence the ability of coordinated action against the entire Earth.
It would seem that the question of the study of global risks of UFOs should be postponed until the evidence became strong for the whole population and governments: something like live covering by CNN of UFO landing. Often skeptic tell me: there is no point in studying the risks of an object, whose existence is not proven. However, we must understand: the very moment of "discovery UFO" is a moment of global risk. UFOs for many years opposed such a global opening, disappearing from the camera, sending the "men in black", flying in desert places. And if we can break this rule, perhaps will happen the worst.
But so far as UFO existence has not been proved, it is impossible to choose between the proposed hypotheses, and as a result it is impossible to come to recommendations for global security.
The main recommendation is that we should not provoke a UFO, trying to knock them or put on them some experiment. Perhaps we should gradually (and perhaps secretly) strengthen our understanding and improve our overall technological status. We should make it clear that we agree to cooperate with any form of intelligence and do not claim on their rights and territory.



Literature
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12. Vallee, Jacques and Eric W. Davis.  Incommensurability, Orthodoxy and the Physics of High Strangeness: A 6-layer Model for Anomalous Phenomena. http://www.jacquesvallee.net/bookdocs/Vallee-Davis-model.pdf
13. Vallee Jacques and Claude Poher. Basic Patterns in UFO Observations. www.jacquesvallee.net/bookdocs/AIAA.pdf
14. Vallee Jacques. Estimates of Optical Power Output in Six Cases of Unexplained Aerial Objects with Defined Luminosity Characteristics. Journal of scientific explorations, 1998, Vol. 12, Number 3. http://www.jacquesvallee.net/bookdocs/optics.pdf
15. UFOs and Defense: What must we be prepared for? (COMETA report) http://www.ufoevidence.org/topics/cometa.htm, http://www.avataara.net/files/NeuerOrdner/cometa_engl1.pdf, http://www.avataara.net/files/NeuerOrdner/cometa_engl2.pdf
16. UFO Briefing Document: The Best Available Evidence 17. Report on aerial phenomena observed near channel islands. http://www.divshare.com/download/5077194-bd7
18. Three Reports of Unusual Killing and Mutilation of Calves. National institute for discovery science, 2002. http://slil.ru/28333003

Short version
In my article UFO as global risk are discussed global risks i.e. risks that could lead to the complete extinction of mankind, - associated with the problem of UFOs. Although I on 90 % is sure that the UFOs are some common phenomena, the remaining 10 percent are forced me to consider these risks seriously.
I think that in the next 20 years the technique of observation of UFOs will dramatically change because we will have ubiquitous surveillance systems all over the world, and we will have final answer about their nature.
This mean that we will somehow confront with the phenomena: explore it, or fight it, or use its space to travel. So if any global risks are associated this the phenomena, they will realize in the 21 century.
If we speak about safety we should assume that something is exist until it proven that it is not exist (like mines on the field). In the science we do the opposite.
The expected harm is multiplication of probability of the hypothesis, and the chances that if this hypothesis is true, the Ufo somehow could lead to extinction of humanity.
I.e in case natural explanation it is 90 % * 0 = 0.
In case of extraterrestrial hypotesis it is 1 % * 0.5 = 0.5%
Numbers are highly speculative, but the main idea is clear: even if some hypothesis is very unprobable but has high expected harm, it is worth considering. The same case is with hadron collider and mini black holes.
So the less probable hypothesis have higher expected harm.
There are 3 levels of hypothesis:
1) natural: hoaxes, optical illusions and so on. They are most probable but have no any global risk. I put their probability in 90%.
2) hypothesis that need something extraordinary, but not change our picture of the world. I put to all this hypothesis probability of 5%, and global risk in case if any of them is true 1 % . So, total expected risk here is 0.05%. That are:   
Sleep paralysis
A new optical phenomenon
Physical processes that affect human minds -  seismic lights, earth-ionospheric discharges.
UFO as ball lightning. I discuss around 100 hypotesis of them.
UFO as  conscious global hoax. Goverments use myth of UFO to manipulate people.
Secret government developments. Secret weapons.
Mystification from the suppressed sub-personalitie. Something like somnambulism or automatic writing.

3) Extraordinary hypothesis completely changing our picture of the world. To all this hypothesis I put also 5% , but risk of each is unknown and so should be counted as 50%. So total risk here is 2.5%

Extraterrestrial spacecraft or landing apparatus
Extraterrestrial nanorobots
Interdimesional ships from parallel world
Travelers in time
Electrical life form
Variety of parapsihological events
The hypothesis of the collective unconscious
Random observations of another world
Activities of the Earth's ancient civilization
Manifestations of multidimensional world
UFOs is manifestation of the properties of holographic universe
UFO as manifestations of synchronism
Other


 I consider 4 factors of global risk that may be associated with UFO based on observational data:
Intellect but we dont have any prove that they really have high IQ
Energy. It seems that UFO has unknown source of energy.
Specific form of toxicity. There are some information of specific influences of UFO on people burns, time lost.
Informational effect. UFO could start accidental nuclear war.