Climatic cycles and anthropogenic potential

Anatoly Sekretarev

(translated by Viktor Tarasjuk)


frg 114. Anthropogenic potential. Climatic cycles and AP of humid and arid territories.
 
Contents.
Theses.
Th. Space modulation of geo-history. Climatic cycles, their manifestation in redistribution of earth moisture among the hydrosphere reservoirs. Localization of extremes of 2400-year climatic cycle. 
Th. Periodical recurrence of environment state as a cause of similarity of dispersed in time phenomena and as a cause of emerge of theories like “new chronology”, which erroneously presume “merge” of such similar phenomena.
Th. Simplest graphs of anthropogenic potential changes for the humid and arid territories due to unfolding of 2400-year climatic cycle with indication of its extremes.
Th. Determining influence of climatic cycles on the essence of large-scale historical phenomena. Some examples of such influence.
Th. About important role of temporary water reservoirs, which appear in humid warm phase of the 2400-year climatic cycle, in the geo-system history and in understanding of that history.
 
Supplements.
Supplement 1. Anthropogenic potential of a territory, cyclicity and linearity in its changes.
Supplement 2. About the Dnieper “sea”, mentioned in the earlier copies of the “Story of the Passing Years”.
 
The list of referred and used printed works.
 
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Theses.
 
Th. Space modulation of geo-history. Climatic cycles, their manifestation in redistribution of the earth moisture among the hydrosphere reservoirs. Localization of the 2400-year climatic cycle extremes. 
 
 
Among the climatic cycles, the most powerful and such that determine scope and distribution of anthropogenic potential over the surface of continents, are two of them. The first is the “glacial - interglacial” one with the period ca. 100 000 years, which determines alternation of glacial and interglacial periods and linked to long-term oscillations of the parameters of the Earth orbital movement. Another one, with the period of 2400 years (*Пр26.34.*), apparently was born in the depths of galaxy and is the most powerful harmonic component of the galaxy space radiation (GSR) spectrum, which comes to the Solar system from those depths. The following scheme of what I call space modulation of geo-history looks quite trustworthy. This, the most powerful, and other harmonics (first and foremost those with periods of ca. 210 and 11 years) contained in the GSR flow, are modulating the solar activity, and oscillations of solar activity corresponding to these harmonics in their turn cause periodical changes of the global climate on the Earth with the same periods, i.e. what can be called climatic cycles. The latter, due to inertia of the world ocean, the principal earth receiver and accumulator of the solar energy, experience certain phase lag (as I evaluate, time lag is approximately 10% of the harmonic period) compared to the respective cycles of solar activity. More details about the cycles detected in the geo-system evolution will be presented in other texts. As for the above stated concept, which links together periodical variability of GSR power, solar activity and global climate, it is presented in detail in *Пр26.39.1.*   
 
I’d like to note further that the value of the most powerful climatic cycle equal to 2400 years was obtained by many researchers. But the question of localizations of extremes of this cycle still was unanswered. Probably, it is due to the fact that spectral analysis of trends in different isotopic archives based on the autocorrelation principle permits finding of the frequency and specific power of harmonics in the spectrum. This for sure enabled finding of the fact that the most powerful among the harmonica of trend spectra is the one with the period of 2400 years, but location of extremes meanwhile remained unknown. I managed to localize the extremes due to the use of other methods.
   First of all, I traced, using textual monuments, archaeological data (e.g., temporary disappearance of archaeological memorials of a certain period at certain lowland can be treated as a consequence of the fact that the territory temporary turned into swamps or was covered with flooded reservoir waters) and old maps, variations of the level of general humidification of continental surfaces, detecting periods of maximal and minimal saturation of internal water reservoirs during the period of the last 2000 years. I appeared to be lucky, as soon as humidification of the territories of the South of East Europe, for which I had the most of available information, appeared to be very sensitive to the variations of the general state of the Earth hydrosphere, which in its turn was determined by the long term oscillations of the solar activity. 
   Using those “water” techniques, first I guessed minimal humidification (it was in the XVII century, practically coincided with extremely dry and cold period known as Maunder;s minimum), and later found maximum in the V century AD. Then assuming that the nearest in time maximum and minimum of global humidification of climate fall respectively on 400 AD and 1600 AD (taking into account that maximums of solar activity which caused them due to the time lag were in 200 AD and 1400 AD respectively) and, after obtaining the length of half-period equal to 1200 years, I located earlier extremes on time axis and superposed my data with the data of the isotopic archives and evolution of the inertial movement of the centre of mass of the Sun, which were studied by Czech astronomer Helena Harvatova (*Пр26.34.*). It appeared that taking into account lag of ca. 200 years, due to the world ocean inertia, of 2400-year cycle of global humidification from 2400-year cycle of solar activity, my localization of extremes conforms well to those data. 
 
In particular, to verify the conformity, the idea which I never meet in other climatologic studies was used. It lies in the following: there is principal difference in intensity of manifestations of more high-frequency climatic cycles (with periods ca. 210 and 11 years) in the neighbourhoods of minimums and maximums of the most powerful 2400-year cycle. Near the minimums, when the principal accumulator of solar energy and earth waters – its oceanic reservoir is maximally filled, while other reservoirs of humidity – atmosphere and continental surfaces are respectively maximally dewatered, the high frequency climatic cycles manifestations have hire amplitude than in the neighbourhoods of 2400-year cycle maximums. Note that the nature of this effect so far is not very clear for me. I guess that the principal cause is that in the neighbourhoods of maximums of global climate humidification atmospheric and continental reservoirs of hydrosphere are maximally saturated that causes decrease of intensity of water transfer to these reservoirs from the ocean. And the opposite, in the neighbourhoods of minimums, moisture content in atmosphere and on continental surfaces decreases and those hydrosphere reservoirs become more predisposed to reception of additional water from the ocean. Therefore, as high frequency cycle of 210 years develops, the amount of moisture in the ocean during this period changes with higher amplitude, than in the neighbourhood of the 2400-year cycle maximum. And since it is the amount of moisture that is transferred from the ocean to other hydrosphere reservoirs that first and foremost determines contents of the majority of natural archives, e.g. radiocarbon ones, then the amplitudes of oscillations of archive characteristics grow up respectively. 
  This phenomenon is clearly seen at diagrams of trends of natural archives, from which harmonics of a millennium order are removed by filtering out. E.g. at the graph of trend intensity of 210-year period harmonic, trends of radiocarbon concentration in dendroscales -*Пр26.1, 19.*- show that the maximal suppression of this harmonic falls on the intervals 4700-4500ВС, 2200-2000ВС and 300-600AD, and it conforms well to my localization of maximums of global humidification during development of 2400-year climatic cycle – they fall on 4400BC, 2000BC, 400AD. 
 
Quite recently (at the beginning of April 2010) I found one more convincing conformity of my localization of extremes in 2400-year cycle, this time to the data on eustatic variations of sea level (i.e. oscillations caused by variations of characteristics of the oceanic reservoir of earth waters itself) during Holocene. Studies of sea level in the period from 3600 BC till 600 AD were undertaken in such sensitive to sea level variations territory as cape Skagens Odde at the North of Jutland peninsula. So it appeared that the two maximums which are within the studied period of time of maximal global humidification 400 AD and 2000 BC quite accurately coincided with the minimums of eustatic variations of sea level - 350 AD and 2100 BC - *Пр26.66.* And it illustrates well the regularity according to which maximums of global humidification of climate are synchronous to minimums of hydrosphere oceanic reservoir filling.
 
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Th. Periodical occurrence of the state of environment as the cause of similarity of such distant in time phenomena and as the cause of the emerge of such theories like “new chronology”, which erroneously presume “merge” of such similar phenomena.
 
  Moreover, it appeared that there is explicit coordination of localized by me extremes 2400-year cycle of global humidification with not only trends of measurements and calculations of physical characteristics of natural archives, but with development large scale historic events, such as migration of nations, creation of empires and the opposite – decay of imperial structures, etc. More detailed story about it follows below. And now I;d like to note that I;m preparing the text under imagined title "Minus 2400", where I;ll show that many remarkable historical events coincide in there essence with those happened 2400 years earlier. I guess such repetitions of the essences of remote in time events promote to the great extent emerge of the theories like known “new chronology” by A. Fomenko, according to which a single historical event, as the result of falsifications or wrong interpretation of historic chronicles, was multiplied and the later obtained false clones were shifted in time for millennia with respect to real events.
 
Now I;ll present only one bright example of such 2400-year time distance between the similar in their essence large scale events. I mean two epochs of the rise of long distance navigation in the Old World, whose marks are voyage of Argonauts (ca. 936 BC) and voyage of Columbus (1492 AD). 
  Voyage of Argonauts was dated by I. Newton. He was based on the following: Argonauts used Chiron;s sphere for their navigation, in which vernal equinox, summer solstice, autumnal equinox and winter solstice fell on the midpoints of grade sectors of Zodiacal constellations of Aries, Cancer, Libra and Capricorn. Then Newton was based on the fact that in 432 BC when Greek astronomer and mathematician Meton suggested use of 19-year cycle for chronology, the points of equinoxes and solstices shifted 7 degrees, and this, taking into account angular velocity of the Earth axis precession, corresponds to the interval of about 504 years duration. Therefore approximate date of the Argonauts voyage was obtained (*Пр173, 196*).So it appears that the time distance between the voyages of Argonauts and Columbus equals 432 + 504 + 1492 = 2428 years.   
 
  Certainly, we should talk about 2400-year repetition not of these voyages, but about repetition of epochs of great colonization marked by these expeditions of Argonauts and Columbus. The epochs of great colonization themselves are ca. 2400 apart, because they are, as we can see below, consequences of the growth of anthropogenic potential of humid territories (see Suppl.1) in the neighbourhoods of the minimums of 2400-year cycle of global humidification, which fall on 800 BC and 1600 AD respectively.   
 
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Th. Simplest graphs of anthropogenic potential changes for the humid and arid territories due to unfolding of 2400-year climatic cycle with indication of its extremes.
 
  So, if to consider anthropogenic potential (AP) of a certain territory (see Suppl.1), say, during several last periods of 2400-year cycle, moreover for simplification, within the last interglacial period, then the AP variations in the first approximation more often will look like sinusoid superposed on the “pedestal” of monotonously increasing curve.
 
In this simplest model sinusoid bears information about cyclic variation of the territory surface humidification, - in the considered model it is the most sufficient of the three basic factors which determine AP variation during a single period of 2400-year cycle. Monotonously increasing curve is modeling contribution of logoevolution to the territorial AP variation (increase of the curve is explained by the fact that we in our simplest model suppose successful logoevolution, i.e. permanent improvement of communities survival technologies on the territory). 
 
Note, when talking of territorial AP variations, we should distinguish between arid – dry and humid territories since they, naturally, react differently on long term changes of humidification. 
  Define arid and humid territories as follows. Suppose that long-term (averaged for intervals of century order) humidification of the territory when growing passes over its average level for the whole period of 2400-year cycle. If at this pass territorial AP grows (assuming that the level of survival techniques remains unchanged), then it is arid, and if it decreases – then the territory is humid. If on a certain territory life conditions improve under humidification above the average level, then such a territory is arid. And if life conditions deteriorate under such rise of humidification, then it is humid.
 
  Now I;ll present four simplest diagrams, which explain the basic essence of the suggested approach. The dates mark maximums of global climate humidification which are reached during the 2400-year climatic cycle development. Crosses mark reference points of the monotonously increasing component, i.e. contribution of logoevolution to the variation of anthropogenic potential, provided that logoevolution is progressive, as we agreed, in our model.  Vertical dash and date 2010 mark our time.
 
 
|
|      о    о                о     о                о     о                o     о 
|       max     о              о    max     о              о     max     о                o      max
|     4400ВС     о   о        2000ВС     о     о        400AD       o    o    |       2800AD
|                2010AD   
- time
 
Fig. 1 Approximate variation of global climate humidification in the interval 4600 BC to - 3000 AD caused by the development of 2400-year climatic cycle (impact of the “glacial - interglacial” cycle in this simplest scheme is not taken into account). Impact of the “glacial - interglacial” cycle is presented in The Softest Climate Crisis of Holocene by A. Sekretarev http://www.prosa.ru/2009/06/30/899
 
/|\    - anthropogenic potential of a territory 
|                o   
|                o        o                o
|                o     o                o         +             o        o   | 
|     о    о                о        +         о     o           400AD               2010AD
|        +         о       о        2000BC             
|    4400ВС               
-time
 
Fig. 2  Approximate variation of arid territories anthropogenic potential in the interval 4600 BC - 2200 AD. 
/|\  - anthropogenic potential of a territory
|
|                400AD              o      o
|                2000BC          o     o          +           o              |      o
|   4400BC       o     o        +         o                o      o                2010AD       
|       +         o                o     o      
|     o    o
- time
 
Fig.3 Approximate variation of humid territories anthropogenic potential in the interval 4600 BC - 2200 AD. 
 
 
/|\  - anthropogenic potential of a territory
|
|                400AD              o      o
|                2000BC          o     o          +           -              |      o
|   4400BC       o     o        +         -                o      -                2010AD       
|       +         -                о      -      
|     о    -
- time
 
Fig.4  Approximate variation of anthropogenic potential of super-humid territories with discontinuous anthropogenity (in particular, territories on which temporary water reservoirs appear during the humid warm phase of 2400-year cycle, which I sometimes denote as HWR – high water reservoirs) within the period of 4600 BC - 2200 AD. Dashes instead of circles which form the line mean that at that time dwelling of humans on the territory is impossible or almost impossible. 
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Th. Governing impact of climatic cycles on the essence of large-scale historical events. Some examples of such impact.
 
  The obtained schemes enable linking of large-scale historical events, such as migration of nations, rise and fall of big logocenoses, to the process of AP changes. Consider several examples (from those analyzed in detail in other texts). 
 
In the text being prepared for publication * frg 101 Arab Conquests and Spanish Re-conquest – climatic factors.* The mentioned historical events are considered as one of the manifestations of more general historical law, namely – transfer of civilization epicentre in humid, warm phase of the 2400-year from humid zones to arid ones (just in this phase occurs what is commonly called Moslem Arabic Renascence), and then, as the cycle goes to dry coldphase, - to the North, from arid to humid zones. Moreover, due to the variety of climatic zones on the Iberian Peninsula, the site of Re-conquest, modulating impact of less powerful 210-year cycle is clearly seen in its flow. Thus, in the humid phase of the cycle Europeans Re-conquest whose stronghold was on humid territories, weakened, while in arid phase, when anthropogenic potential of arid territories to which Arabs were attracted, went down, Re-conquest was the most successful.
 
  Similar transfer of historic initiative to the north in the flow of humid territories drying, and the growth of their anthropogenic potential occurred in the middle Eurasia too. If to consider Mongolian conquests of the XIII century from the global positions, then it can be treated as emerge of the new latitudinal transcontinental transit corridor, which passed north of the Caspian and the Black seas. Certainly, instantaneous appearance (like the one, when 600 years before it in lower latitudes, in another phase of the 2400-year climatic cycle appeared vast zone conquered by Arabs) of macro-state of Genghizides, spread from China to the Carpathians could be explained by special outstanding features of its creators (e.g. L. Gumilev calls it passionarity). But I think the determining reason is the large-scale and rather prompt change in anthropogenic potential of the continental territories. In particular, one of the factors that determine routes of big caravan roads is their proximity to the stable agriculture zones, agrarian regions, which produce forage and foodstuffs necessary for creation of caravansary networks – powerful “filling stations” on transit routes. So, naturally, shift of the stable agriculture zones promotes the shift of caravan routes.
   By the way, similar shift of communication routes to the North, closer to new agrarian zones, occurred not only in continental, but in regional scale, e.g. in east European forest-steppe. Thus, in the first half of the XVI century, the main latitudinal road of Podillia, which joined basins of the Dniester and the Dnieper, shifted northward to the new agrarian zones appeared on the place of dried HWR, such as the Amadoksky lake in the riverheads of the Yuzhnyy Bug,Zbruch, Smotrich, Goryn and Sluch. It even caused corresponding transfer of the regional capital city at the end of the XVI century from Bratslav to Vinnytsia (*Пр83*).
 
  Then, in the text *frg 100 The long XVI century - crucial point of climate and history.* it will be shown that so called “long XVI century” (historians call so the 200-year interval from the middle of the XV century till the middle of the XVII century during which transition from the Middle Ages to the New age occurred, formation of the European centralized national states started at the background of the sharp growth of number of population and cities), is closely linked to intensive drying of over-humid territories of humid zones and, respectively, to the essential growth of the anthropogenic potential on the European continent as a whole. Note that those drying, earlier unusable or hardly usable by people territories were not the property of regional landlords, magnates, but as a rule were treated a property of charismatic rulers – e.g. representatives of royal families, families of great princes descended from the legendary forefathers, first chieftains of nations, etc. As soon as those recently flooded lands after drying turned into very fruitful and easy to cultivate soils, their charismatic owners got a possibility to increase their power and influence dramatically. Indeed, by giving new lands to their devoted servants, by building on them or near them new cities, charismatic monarchs gained military and economic base for their struggle for the centralization of their states.   
 
  I guess, it is too difficult to find other reason for the globalism of the scale except for dramatic rise of anthropogenic potential of many regions due to the above-stated drying of over-humid territories, their next cultivation, which could explain such a dramatic acceleration of the process of state centralization that occurred in XV-XVI centuries not only in Europe and Asia, but in the New World too. 
 
  More or less detailed description of the synchronous manifestations of centralization in different regions together with the evidence of the use of the dried territories for the growth of the centralization initiators; power will be presented in the text *frg 100*. And now just note that all the above stated is directly related to such a phenomenon as oprichnina (special administrative elite under tsar Ivan the Terrible; its territory and army, which, as a rule, is considered to be an exotic and specific phenomenon of Russian history). 
  Note, emerge of oprichnina occurred on the territories, which in early Medieval Age were practically unfit for human dwelling due to over-humid state. Thus, in the book “From Rus to Russia” (От Руси к России) by L. Gumilev, a map of oprichnina is presented, which shows that the very first lands given to oprichniks in 1565, are located on the territories with high level of humidity, - those are the lands west of the Ladoga and Onega lakes, and the floodlands located in the riverheads of the Dnieper and Volga, which by that time were substantially dried.
Link to the mentioned map: http://www.kulichki.com/~gumilev/maps/r2r18.gif .
 
Note that simultaneously with oprichnina, formation of other new agrarian regions caused by the fall of global humidity occurs in East Europe, - on Great Poland, Polesye, and the Dnieper Left-bank. Just those phenomena explain emerge in the middle of the XVI century of such an important document as “Statute on plots” (Устава про волоки), which governed the process of colonization in the Great Lithuanian Princedom, formation of Ukrainian and in general borderland Cossacks certainly related to the start of settled colonization of steppe black soils. As the result of those processes caused by the climatic changes, East Europe turns into the most important agrarian base, the breadbasket, which satisfied demand for foodstuffs and forage of the West Europe, which were growing due to demographic explosion and intensive urbanization that started there.
 
Here is another bright illustration of the changes of landscapes and their functions related to the decrease of humidity. At the map of Ukraine created by G. Beauplan in 1630-ies there is a legend related to the Teterev river reach near the Korostyshev and Radomyshl towns: “This portion of land, swampy some time back, then cultivated, now split among different towns and settlements” (from Lateen) - *Пр3, 147.* While on the earlier map of the Great Lithuanian Princedom by Radivill published in Amsterdam in 1613, but composed much earlier (it is seen from the fact that the map indicates Bratslav as the capital of Bratslav province, but not Vinnytsia which become the capital in 1598), that area is marked with vignette containing inscription “Paludes Polesias” - “Polesye Swamps”- *Пр3, 37*.
 
  Undoubtedly, such dramatic and rather rapid changes of anthropogenic potential of territories caused drastic ethno-social and political changes. In particular, importance of remote regions with their specific, rather archaic traditions, where influence of pan-religions was at that time rather weak, while local believes, various and decentralized, with their often cruel rituals, cults of local gods, on the contrary, were in power. All those lead to intensification of religious, ideological confrontations, which as it is known, are always of extreme intolerance. That;s why so-called “Long Sixteenth century” was so rich on cruel and dramatic phenomena as “witch hunt”, intensification of sectarianism, religious schisms, reforms etc. It should be added that the population growing due to the increase of anthropogenic potential of humid territories, and in urbanized regions – due to its congestion, together with the growth of length and volume of haulage (first of all foodstuffs and forage) caused frequent epidemics, struggle against which in the new yet unusual conditions, required new knowledge, new means, which only started to arise at that time. In general, it can be stated that adaptation to abrupt environment changes, even if they are positive, costs much to humanity. This sad truth appeared to be very important in our time, when 2400-year climatic cycle starts entering into the next dynamic phase. Moreover, these modern changes have negative character, firs of all for humid territories where modern centres of civilizations are located.
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Th. About the role temporary water reservoirs, which appear during humid warm phase of the 2400-year climatic cycle play in the geosystem history and in understanding of it.
 
Note, that periodical appearance and further gradual drying of the temporary water reservoirs, quite vast very often, make the geography of their location rather variable. Studies of those reservoirs that appear during the humid warm phase of the 2400-year cycle and then disappearing as dry cold phase develops is a very important task.
  First of all, these cyclic variations of hydrography themselves serve as clear evidence of the manifestation of the 2400-year cycle of the Earth climate evolution.
   Second, knowledge of configuration of such temporary water reservoirs and time of their existence, and therefore absence of the results of human activities at those territories enable obtaining of interesting information about the stages of the local flora and fauna and (what is the most important) development of ancient cultures and languages. E.g. age of all toponyms present now on the territories of a certain “Floodland” can rather accurately be found by the time of the last drying and following then colonization of the territory. Indeed, all the substratum, i.e. previous toponymy existed during the several centuries of “Foodland” existence, disappears completely. 
  Third, without taking those abrupt cyclic variations of hydrography into account, studies of the history of traditions whose areas include the “Floodland” territories are impossible.
  As a bright example of how ignorance of localization and evolution of such temporary water reservoirs leads to absolutely incorrect conception of history of a certain tradition is a number of wrong, but quite important and alas, still existing ideas of the Kievan Rus history. These historical delusions are caused first and foremost by the absence of knowledge of the fact that the vast territory in the mid-Dnieper basin, especially on its left bank, during humid warm phase of the 2400-year climatic cycle were practically completely flooded. Configuration of those Dnieper “floodlands” can be traced by the character of soils, as well as by the absence of archaeological monuments of the time when the “sea” existed, even by folklore references to it.  But now we (see Supplement 2) consider, more or less in detail, only references to that “sea” in chronicles (because it was wrong treatment of their content that lead to those historic delusions), as for other evidences of that temporary water reservoir existence, they will be presented in a special text.   
 
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Supplements.
Supplement 1. Anthropogenic potential of a territory, cyclicity and linearity in its changes.
 
  Anthropogenic potential is a measure of a certain territory ability to ensure existence of a certain human community.
  The main characteristics of a territory that determine anthropogenic potential are its three basic characteristics - insolation, humidity, relief and the three derivative characteristics - soils, flora and fauna. 
  Note that the characteristics of a territory itself are not enough to define AP, since AP of a territory essentially depends on the level of development of communities which dwell on that territory, on the broadness of the survival techniques “menu” mastered by humans. Then it turns that AP of a territory is not constant due not only because insolation, humidity and relief (to much less extent), and hence soils, flora and fauna are variable themselves, but because very variable are communities of Homo sapiens (logocenoses), which are evolving organizations, able to adaptation to various environment conditions. 
  But, if the main tendency of logocenose evolution is linear – permanent drive for improvement, monotonous growth of adaptability, then variation of the environment show quite strong repetitions, cyclicity determined by the development of the climatic cycles. This opposition of linearity and cyclicity of environmental changes, as I guess, can be treated as the main drive of geo-history.
 
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Supplement 2. About the Dnieper “sea”, mentioned in the earlier copies of the “Story of the Passing Years” (SPY).
 
Really, now we;ll see that this appeared in the humid warm phase of the 2400-year cycle overflow of the middle Dnieper in the earlier copies of SPY was mentioned and called “sea”, while in later edited copies of chronicles, compiled at the time when those “floodlands” dried and in later studies and investigations, that “chronicles sea” were interpreted as the name of the nearest, so to say, permanent sea – the Black sea. 
  Let;s start with the record of that Dnieper “sea” in Ipatievskiy chronicle - the earliest of the editions of the “Story of the Passing Years” that reached us. It is in the chronicle at the year of 1224, in the description of the route by which a part of Russian troops moved by boats to the famous Battle on Kalka: 
 
 
"...а выгонци Галичькыя придоша по Дне/ипру. и воидоша в море. бе/и бо лодеи тысяща. и воидоша во Дне/ипръ. и возведоша порогы и сташа у ре/икъ Хорьтице/и. на броду у Протолчи." - *Дж26, ст.742.*
… “and exiles Galician came by the Dnieper. and entered the sea. there was thousand of boats. and entered the Dnieper. and after rising the rapids and stopped at the river Khortitsa. at the ford of Protoloch” - *Дж26, ст.742.* Note: In this text “Galician” is referred to the dwellers of Galich – the old town on the Dniester river, but not to Spanish Galicia.
 

 If we ignore the existence of the mentioned Dnieper “sea” then the route “Dnieper – sea – Dnieper” looks unrealistic. That is why the majority of the later editions of chronicles compiled when the Dnieper “sea” was not in existence, and the memory of it dyed away, the first mentioning of the Dnieper was replaced with the Dniester (though, for example, in the “Typography Chronicles” (Типографская летопись) the description of the route remains unchanged). Obviously, later compilers thought that the first mentioning of the Dnieper in the original source material is a scrivener’s mistake. When correcting the route to the “Dniester – sea - Dnieper”, they assumed that “Galician exiles” sailed from Galich, went down the Dniester to the Black sea and entered the Dnieper. To tell the truth, the meaning of the expression “after rising the rapids” remained not very clear. It was technically impossible to overpass the rapids up the stream, but it was not necessary, since the Protoloch was downstream of the rapids (thus, at the year of 1103 in that very Ipatievskiy chronicle we read:

 "...И поидоша на конихъ и в лодьяхъ, и приидоша ниже порогъ, и сташа въ Протолчехъ и в Хортичимъ острове/и...") . 
…”and moving by horse and by boats, and reaching below the rapids, and stopped at the Protoloch and on Khortitsa island… Evidently, “after rising the rapids” was understood by the compilers as “on reaching the rapids”.

  Under such “corrections” of the protograph (source text) it appears that the Galicians, at least in the XIII century, were well-skilled navigators and shipbuilders, since, unlike them, the troops of other princedoms moved to the battle by dry land. But it is difficult to believe to such a characteristic of the Galicians. Meandering and fast river, rich with shallows and with rapids near Yampol, the Dniester could not promote development of special shipbuilding and navigation skills of its banks dwellers. Even in the XIX century travelers noted awkwardness of blunt-nosed, tub-like local floating means mainly used for the river crossing and downstream voyages. Thus, A. Afanasiev-Chuzhbinskiy writes: “Ordinary Dniester vessel – so called galley. But do not think that it looks even like awkward Russian wooden barge – the ugliest kind of vessels of our pagan forefathers (in Russian tradition – wooden barge is a primitive cargo sail ship)... That is an awkward flat-bottomed wooden box, ...steerable by the two long steering oars attached on its two ends” - *Пр170.2, 36.* Even fishermen’s boats on the Dniester (and their design, as a rule, is traditional) looked like clumsy rectangular tubs, on which, as Afanasiev-Chuzhbinskiy notes, obviously, Dacians were floating.   
  But those are not all the discrepancies. Still incomprehensible in this context is the notion “Galician exiles”. What exiles are they, if they are at the head of such a powerful expedition, which needs great expenses, - even if we think that a thousand of boats is a big exaggeration? It is difficult to say how this notion was understood by later chroniclers, researchers of the Kievan Rus history unanimously reached conclusion that the “Galician exiles” – they are the boyars of Galich or, in general Galich dwellers who were periodically expelled from the town as the result of permanent internecine struggle in that heterogeneous trade town. “Galician exiles” were added to more known Berladniks (derived from Birlad dwellers, now Romania) and Brodniks (derived from roamers) of the Dniester region, considering all of them as those that belong to the local “lower” freemen, similar to Zaporozhye Cossacks. Based mainly on the single and moreover, on the re-made mentioned quotation from the chronicles about the expedition of Galician exiles to the Battle on Kalka, till now the researchers ascribe to the Dniester area dwellers the habit of long sea voyages, which was pertained to Zaporozhye Cossacks who had fast sailing boats named “chaika”. 
Now consider one more characteristic quotation that brightly illustrates common in the modern historiography concept of “Galician navigation”:
... “It is very important for us that their grandiose expedition “Galician exiles” undertook by sea, and this shows that, for the first, sea route the Danube – Dnieper was not forgotten in the XIII century, but still was booming artery, and, for the second, that the Danube area dwellers preferred boats rather than horses, i. e. about their navigational traditions” - *Пр423, 105.*
 
However, advocates of this concept of “Galician navigation” have one more supporting pillar, as we later see – the false one. It is many times mentioned in the Ipatievkiy chronicle town Oleshie, linked in the text to the Dniester area dwellers, moreover, one of the fragments mentions a “boat from Oleshie” (ладья из Олешья). This town is localized by the advocates of the mentioned concept in the Dnieper mouth, since there is settlement Aleshki there. But in this case the fact that there are several settlements with similar names in the Dniester area, two of them are modern villages of Ivano-Frankovsk region – Olesha and Oleshin which are located near the Dniester, close to Galich (see map http://travel.org.ua/karta_list.php?id=74). More detailed proof of the fact that the related to the Dniester area dwellers, mentioned in chronicles Oleshie was located in the Dniester area, but not in the Dnieper mouth will be presented in the other text.
 
But now it is high time to articulate the reading of the fragment of chronicle about the Galician exiles and the route of their expedition to the Battle on Kalka, which I guess, is correct.
Let;s start with Galician exiles. I think the chronicler called so the Igorevichs princes of Novgorod-Siverskiy, since approximately fifteen years before that time they were driven out from Galich with incredible shame, namely – two princes were hanged by Galicians, and such a shameful execution of a noble person was an exclusive event. It explains the use by the chronicler of such related to Galich nickname of Novgorod-Siverskiy princes Igorevichs.
As for the route, then taking into account the existence of the “sea” in the middle flow of the Dneper, it looks quite natural. The troops of the Novgorod-Siverskiy princes sailed in their boats downstream the Desna (chronicles do not mentioned this part of the route since it is natural), then boats sailed over the Dnieper to its flood, entered the “sea”, i.e. the flood itself, passed through it and again entered narrowed after the flood Dnieper, and then after passing the rapids, stopped downstream of them at the Protoloch. 
 
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The list of referred and used printed works..
 
Дж26. Ипатьевская  летопись. ПСРЛ. Т. II. - М., 1962.
Ipatievkiy chronicle
 
Пр3. Сосса Р.І. Історія картографування території України з давніших часів до 1920р.- Київ, 2000. 
 
Пр26.1. Васильев С.С., Дергачев В.А., Чистяков В.Ф.  Выявление ~2400-летнего цикла в  концентрации 14С и  восприимчивость поведения человека к крупномасштабным изменениям  климата. // Радиоуглерод и археология. Вып.2. - СПб., 1997. С.13-35.
 
Пр26.34. Charv`atov`a I.  Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused of solar inertial motion? // Annales Geophysicae 18, 399-405 (2000).
 
Пр26.39.1.  Mercurio Ed.  The effects of galactic cosmic rays on weather and climate on multiple time scales. - Proceedings of the 19-th Annual Pacific Climate Workshop,  March 2002. P. 99- 120.
 
Пр26.53. B. Bonev (Ritter Astrophysical Research Center, Univ. of Toledo) Periodgram Analysis of the Zurich and Schove Series. Stability of the Quasi-Century and Quasi-Two Century Solar Cycles.  // Solar Physics Division Meeting 2000, June 19-22. Session 2. Corona, Solar Wind, Flares, CMEs, Solar-stellar, Instrumentation, Other Display, Chair: J. Krall, Monday-Thursday, June 19, 2000. 
 
Пр26.65 Charles A. Perry and Kenneth J. Hsu. Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change.// Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA), 2000, Volume 97, pages 12433-438, 2000. 
 
Пр26.66 Clemmensen LB, Richardt N, Andersen C. Holocene sea-level variation and spit development: data from Skagen Odde, Denmark. Holocene, 11, № 3. 2001. Р.323-331. 
 
Пр83. Секретарьов А. Місто на Бугом: 400 років тому і по тому. - Вінниця, 1999.
 
Пр170.2.  Афанасьев - Чужбинский А.С.  Поездка в Южную Россию.  Ч. IІ. Очерки Днестра. - СПб., 1863.
 
Пр173. Вавилов С.И.  Исаак Ньютон. - М., 1989.
 
Пр422  Вегерчук С.М. Етносоціальне походження вигнанців і бродників у Галицькому Пониззі. // Наукові видання Чорноморського Державного університету ім. П. Могили. Історія. Т. 48. - Миколаїв, 2006. С. 8 - 14.
http://bibl.kma.mk.ua/pdf/naukpraci/history/2006/48-35-1.pdf
 
Пр423 Мавродин В.В.  Начало  мореходства на Руси. - Ленинград, 1949.   
http://www.hrono.info/libris/lib_m/morehod00.html