A Sad Story about the Future Democratic Armenia

A Sad Story about the Future Democratic Armenia, and Not Only: Why is Democracy Fatal for the Republic of Armenia (and Not Only)?


   It is hardly a revelation that every piece of reasoning related to future predictions is merely ideas of crafty subjective anticipations. On the other hand, a reasoning person may not be indifferent to the fate of his/her relatives and close people. In fact, the responsibility towards the future generations of the former Soviet countries, e.g. Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, etc. is within the frames of this sad story. The extent to which our analyses refer to these countries differs, of course. Russia, boasting long-lasting culture and state development, will not fall into these analyses to some degree. Armenia serves the simplest and the most vivid example in such a discussion.

   The Republic of Armenia - post-Soveit republican state - is located in South Caucasus. The population of the country totalled to 2, 986,100 in the year 2017, consisting of Christian Armenians of Gregorian faith (no less than 95%). It covers a territory of 29,743 km. According to some estimates, it is the 136th and 138th country of the world in terms of population and area respectively. The density of population stands at a ratio of 100.4 persons per square kilometer, making it the 77th in the world.

   The Republic of Armenia is located in the southern part of Western Asia, on the north-east of the Armenian highland, with no access to the sea. It is bordered by the Republic of Azerbaijan to the east, an enemy country as per an official announcement. On this eastern borderline is the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh with no official recognition of its status. The population here consists mainly of Christian Armenians of Gregorian Religion, totalling to no less than 95%. To the southwest, Armenia is bordered by Nakhchivan Republic, officially part of the Republic of Azerbaijan, thus recognized as non-hospitable to Armenia. To the south, Armenian is bordered by the Islamic Republic of Iran, recognized as an enemy country by the US, Israel, and NATO. Turkey, which is another country with hostile relations with Armenia, borders the latter to the west.  To the north, Armenian is neighboured by Georgia, which is thought to have amicable relations with Armeniam although this idea is prone to challenge. A conflict, due to the small number of Armenians living on the territory of Georgia, may explode. On top of this, Armenia is in control of part of the territory claimed by Azerbaijan; likewise, Azerbaijan controls territories, though less in size, claimed by Armenia.

   So, this is the location of Armenia on the planet Earth. In fact, being part of the Soviet Union, Armenia had immense chances of evolutionary development - it produced nuclear energy to supply the world demand. The capital Yerevan transformed from a 18-thousand-year-old town into a modern megapolis with a population of million people, mainly consisting of Armenians, at 95%.

   Armenia is a unitary parliamentary state consisting of ten provinces and the city of Yerevan. Almost 95% of the population is Christians of the Apostolic Church, being one of the ancient world churches.

   In modern history, on 28 May 1918 the First Republic of Armenia was established. On 29 November 1920 Armenia went under the Soviet rule and was declared Armenian SSR which was part of the USSR until 1936 within Transcaucasian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic. From 5 December 1936 Armenia functioned as a separate soviet republic until the month of August of 1990. On 23 August 1990 the Supreme Council of the Armenian SSR declared Armenia independent. It was announced that only the Constitution and the rules adopted by the Republic of Armenia will have legal power on the territory of the country. The results of the referendum conducted by the Supreme Council of the republic ratified the independence of Armenia. On 2 March 1992 Armenia joined the UN, with entry into European Council on 25 January 2001.

   Towards the end of the Soviet period, Armenia’s industry developed greatly and supplied the internal market of the USSR with machinery and equipment, textiles, and some other industrial products in return for raw materials and electricity. Agriculture also developed on the basis of large-scale agribusiness complexes. 

   Modern Armenia is considered a mid-developed state based on agriculture and industry. The country boasts a huge reserve of copper-molybdenum and polymetallic ores, bauxite, construction stones, mineral water, mines of precious metals, including gold, as well as semi-precious and hand-made stones. Unfortunately, the production of synthetic rubber, textiles, food stuff, construction materials as well as machinery has declined dramatically. 

   According to the estimates of the CIA of the USA in 2018 the GDP accounted for $30,44 billion, with a ratio of $9,476 per head. The situation of the infrastructure, according to the evaluation of the CIA of the US in terms of GDP in 2014 is the following: service  - 46.6%,  industry - 31.5%, and agriculture - 21.9%. 

   The external debt of Armenia in 2015 was $ 8,595 billion, and there is no tendency towards an increase. According to the issue of the magazine “Forbes” released in December 2014,, Armenia held the 56th position in the world in terms of a conducive environment for launching business. In the year 2015, the country held the 35th position for “the ease of launching business”, according to the World Bank. According to the 2016 publication of Index of Economic Freedom in the world by the Canadian Institute of Fraser, Armenia holds the 18th position in the world. In 2015 Armena held the 85th position according to the index of human capital development of the UN, and in the same year the country had the 52th position for the index of economic freedom.

   In 2014, according to the index of corruption, Armenia held the 94th position out of 175 countries, exceeding the neighbouring countries of Azerbaijan the position of which was 126th and Iran with a position of 136. However, it was overtaken by the neighbouring countries of Turkey (64) and Georgia (50). 

   In terms of export, cast iron, untreated copper, molybdenum and other non-ferrous metals play some role. There is a serious disbalance between foreign sales, deteriorated by economic isolation on part of neighbouring countries - Turkey and Azerbaijan, which is set off by international aid, including help from the Armenian diaspora,  money transfers by Armenians working abroad and direct international investments.

   Armenia joined the World Trade Organization in 2003. The unemployment rate in the country is very high. A reason behind this can be the high level of qualification of the population - specialists, e.g. engineers, scientific workers and some other specialists get low remuneration. Here we come to the point which should have been the starting point. According to the data of the Statistical Committee of Armenian, in 2019, after the so-called ‘velvet’ revolution in the country, the outflow of the population, in particular of ethnic Armenians, from the country, continues, a trend which started after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And this is only the beginning.

   The thing is that, alongside the emigration of ethnic Armenians of the working age from the country, young people, with doubtful reputation, have come to Armenia from different, so called third countries. Specifically, recently people with non-conventional sexual orientation, particularly from Cuba, have settled in Armenia. For the streets of Yerevan, like with many other cities in various countries declaring themselves democratic and being a member of UN, WTO, EU as well as having a variety of offices, e.g. “Open Society”, etc. and a big external debt, such a scenario with people having non-conventional sexual orientation becomes the norm. Moreover, the trend currently dominating Armenia hints to the “Istanbul Convention'' being adopted sooner or later, whereby the issue of gender belonging will become part of the routine. Accordingly, individuals will have the right to choose their gender regardless of physical outward features. And the most intriguing part of all this is that children will be involved in this too. Further, following such a tendency, being part of the civilized world, Armenia will legalize same-sex marriages, the adoption of children by suchlike partners and non-orthodox lifestyles enatiled by such practices. Of course, such a tendency will not, in any way, contribute to the increase in the population of the country, in particular of Armenians themselves.  However, this is not the end of the story; the events that will take place in Armenia will be much more disastrous than such an “innocent” trangenderization of Armenia. 

   In accordance with the democratic responsibilities and the supremacy of the law, Armenia, only in the year 2019, accepted 50,000 citizens of foreign countries. If the number of perverts from Cuba is small, the number of migrants from India, Pakistan and some other countries of the Far East totals to thousands. Let’s make some predictions here; it has been mentioned above that Armenia is an enemy with at least two of its neighbouring countries - Turkey and Azerbaijan. The conflict with Turkey is long-lasting -more than 100 years- while with Azerbaijan the conflict emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. There is a lot of evidence of friendship between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the times of the Soviet Union, and this was the norm in the USSR where all the countries were equal. Thus, the conflict that has emerged between these two countries, once enjoying friendly relations, can be labelled as artificial. However, this is not the focal point of the current discussion. Let’s consider the scenario where Turkey, and specifically Azerbaijan, are enemy countries for Armenia. And the result of the famous conflict between Armenians and Azeri, caused by Nagorno Karabakh, is the irreconcilable contradictions. This Gordian Knot, being hard to solve at this point, is what serves as a dividing line between the two neo-political countries - Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

   What happens between the countries having unfriendly relations? The answer is simple - they cause harm to each other. They started wars against one another, trying to cause harm to the extent possible in an effort to weaken the opponent, with mutual destruction being a possible outcome. As a rule, such a mutual destruction happened simultaneously. What if Turkey and Azerbaijan decide to cause harm to Armenia - either individually or with combined efforts? And if they decide to finally erase the name of Armenia from the face of the Earth. It turns out that no military attacks or any weapons are needed…

   It is undeniable that in the year 2019 50,000 Pakistani, Indians and other nationalities from the same region arrived in Armenia to settle permanently. No need to point out that in those countries, inhabited by 1.6 billion people, where the density of population is higher by 2.5 points, the standard of living is comparatively lower. Of course, they have come to Armenia as the market needs a cheap workforce. However, it should be noted that representatives of the lower layers of the society come to Armenia from those countries. Even if the conditions are not perfect in Armenia, they are better compared to those back in their countries. It is not hard to guess that the number of people who will choose to settle in Armenia and who are not Christins will increase continually.         

   Let’s make more predictions; imagine that Azerbaijan and Turkey, being very close and friendly countries, decide to join efforts in accelerating the process of relocation of Indian and Pakistani people, from their poor countries to Armenia just to cause more harm to the latter. It is quite simple to understand that the absence of one million, even two, three, four and even more Pakistani and Indians in their own countries would not make a big change since hundreds of millions of people are living there. 

   Even without the intervention of the enemy countries, in the course of 10, 20, 30, 40 or 50 years - the number of years is not significant - more than four million non-Armenians who do not worship Christinaty, but rather Buddhism and Islam, will settle in Armenia. In fact, in Nagorno Karabakh, even if not officially recognized, no more than 75 people live per square kilometer, whereas in India the corresponding figure is 375 and in Pakistan 260. If in Armenia the population hits eight million people, the density will amount to 200 people per square kilometer. If the current figure is added by five million, then the proportion of Armenians would total to zero. And the number of voluntary immigrants from these densely populated countries might be bigger, and this will lead to great alterations in the Armenian state. Eventually, these people who are not Armenians will comprise the majority of the population, with Armenians being a minority.

   Considering the responsibilities that Armenia has towards the global community for the establishment of democratic state following the European example, we have to entitle these immigrants to the same rights that we, Armenians, enjoy on our land. Certainly, like in Europe, We need to build mosques and pagodas, schools that meet their requirements and some other public institutions. As well, we have to accept them into the parliament and other governmental structures. No need to refer to the scenario wherein Buddist traditions and Sharia would be adhered to. We will witness women walking in hijabs in the cities and rural areas of Armenia, we will hear muezzins coming from the minaret of the mosque calling for prayers; in short, the occurrences not part of the Christian religion and of the life of Armenians would become part of the routine in the modern Armenia. This is natural as millions of new Armenians, representing different cultures, need not be forced to follow the local culture. Back in history, there have been cases when small ethnic groups - Albanians, Udis, and even Yezid people - adopted Armenian culture. However, they never accounted for the majority. To be fair, it should be noted that Armenians themselves, comprising minorities in different countries, did not assimilate into the host culture, but they managed to become useful and deserving citizens of their country of habitation. Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine what the fate of Armenians, living in their own land, will be if they become to represent only the minority of the population. To this end, it is worth considering ways of preventing such an occurrence from developing.

   In fact, to think that this is not a possible development is not a remedy to the situation. This is left to every Armenian to speculate over.

P.S.

   This sad story with a tragic ending refers specifically to one of the neo-states - Armenia- located in the post-soviet area. As a matter of fact, there are no grounds to predict that a similar development will take place in other post-soviet neo-states since, apart from Russia, no other country would allow the inflow of ‘aliens’ to make the title nation a minority on its own territory. In fact, Russia has a long-lasting tradition of constructing a multi-national and multi-confessional state where every single nation was entitled to unlimited development and prosperity. And can these so-called neo-states achieve the level of development that is typical of a country called Belgium? Belgium is a state where all the above mentioned about the future of Armenia is absolutely true. By the way, Belgium did not have to be neighboured by enemy countries to get to such a point.

   Hence, the question is: whose agenda is this? If in Belgium, one of the developed countries of Europe, Belgiums became a minority in their territory, with their medieval christian churches being empty, then it is logical to assume that this is in the interests of some party.   

   Knowing the answer to this question will make the situation better for the Armenians?
   However, it is worth thinking over this!

      
Brussels
18.11.2019
Hotel “Stalingrad”

 

translation
Karlen Avanesyan
17.05.2020


Reference

http://proza.ru/2020/01/27/657


Рецензии
Большая проблема!!!
Отлично написано!!!

Григорий Аванесов   17.05.2020 14:13     Заявить о нарушении