Bloomberg Balance of Power 20 09 21

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gambled with his future with today’s snap election. Rather than a convincing win the most likely outcome is a draw, and a loss is not totally off the table.

Trudeau’s Liberals can probably cobble enough support from minor parties to retain power. But that would be a big disappointment given he had wanted to regain a parliamentary majority.


In practical terms, he would still have license to pursue a big spending agenda that would add to the nation’s growing debt. But he’d also have less room for maneuver on key issues such as Canada’s sagging competitiveness and slow transition to a low-carbon economy.

The days when Trudeau swept to power in 2015 conveying a future of “sunny ways” seem a distant memory.

His conservative challenger, Erin O’Toole, has parlayed his Boy-Scout style into an effective weapon. His message has found resonance in a country that like its giant southern neighbor, the U.S., is a divided nation — the more conservative west versus the predominantly liberal east, rural versus urban.

Canadians’ goodwill toward the premier has been fading for some time: there were ethics scandals during his first term and then revelations he wore blackface multiple times before entering politics. He held onto power in 2019 but lost his majority and the popular vote.

Trudeau hoped to translate strong marks on his handling of the Covid-19 crisis into decisive victory. Instead, many saw his calling of the vote while the pandemic still rages as a power grab.

And now voters’ trust in a man once regarded as the golden boy of Canadian politics may finally be broken.