Balance of Power from Bloomberg 22 09 21

Is Boris Johnson heading for a winter of discontent?

The Shakespearean phrase is suddenly in vogue again as the U.K. prime minister juggles a toxic mix of surging energy prices, supply-chain disruptions, tax rises and the unwinding of pandemic support.

The winter in question was 1978-1979, when James Callaghan’s Labour government was beset by strikes causing power blackouts and garbage to pile in the streets. It’s been used as a stick by Conservatives to beat Labour with ever since.

Now, as the days draw in, Johnson’s Tories face their own set of challenges.

A U.S. trade deal that was billed as a key Brexit dividend looks a distant prospect after President Joe Biden downplayed its chances during a meeting with Johnson at the White House yesterday.

Domestically, soaring gas prices mean U.K. consumers will be hit by a 12% rise in bills next month at a time broader inflation is on the up. A dearth of truck drivers — worsened by a post-Brexit clampdown on immigration — is emptying shelves in supermarkets and bringing warnings of Christmas shortages.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is stuck with a record peacetime budget deficit, and his flagship furlough program and a temporary increase in social benefits that helped struggling Britons through the pandemic will end soon.

Still, Johnson was buoyed by a submarine deal with Australia and the U.S., and will host the COP26 climate summit in under six weeks. Even a high Covid caseload appears manageable, for now. He told Sky News yesterday that “Christmas is on.”

The question is whether any of this matters to an electorate seemingly in thrall to Johnson’s charms.

This winter will test if voter tolerance turns to anger.