Deep and dark context

Some people ask me: "Can you send me your thoughts on this Russia-Ukraine war?"

Well, what I can say about this?

First, the active fase of this so-called operation-war was began in Kazakhstan in first days of the January 2022. If you remember, we had some dubious events with claims to the revolutionary will of the people and the participation of, so say, terrorist-minded extremist groups in this. All of this were in the context of the official opinion and media discourse in Kazakhstan under governmental controle as well.

Actually, I guess, when all people thought on mass disorder and riots, but sat in their home because of fact they (we) all were under house arrest, some actual plans were implimented by much more illuminated structures then even the Kazakh Government.

The whole country looked only at governmental TV (all others were switched off) and all people were without adequate internet connection almost two weeks!

As you, of course, remember, Kazakhstan is the member of the CSTO (ОДКБ) agreement. Oficially this organization helped my country just about 3 thosand of troops in Almaty and two or three other settelments in Kazakhstan to support for safety.

Two weeks after that event (I mean so-called either revolution or riot clash) I visited one funeral ceremony and the memorial meal for relatives. According information from some visitors of the ceremony from different part of Almaty region I found that our country received officially only 3000 troops who were landed in Almaty airport. But there is an airfield about 50 km from Almaty to north, near Zhetygen village (the same name has the railway station there as well there) and there were landed hundreds air crafts with 10 minuts spacing during that days when all country looked at official TV on riots and clashes them with police and solders.

All roads in the country were under control of militaries without any movement.

So, if you understand, taking into account such information, this was one of the type of so-called "false flag" operation. No one had an opportunity for movement then and all of us were fated to look at  the captivating and thrilling picture on TV.

In the meantime, some coordinators convinced the Kazakh military command and sent Kazakh military units based in the city of Almaty and the Almaty region to the city, to the Kurdai Pass and to checkpoints along the Almaty-Bishkek highway (it's so difficult to call the riad as highway). Kazakh forces were meager, but armed with small arms in the hands of soldiers who were ready to curry favor. These formations were from among the garrisons of border guards, internal troops with the support of local police.

From the first days, TV controlled by the government of Kazakhstan has been spreading information that destructive radicals have crossed the Kazakh-Kyrgyz border.  Although, based on the analogs of the events in the village of Malovodnoye (2007) and Mamanchi (2020), it is very convenient to use on the same scheeme moderators and human resources from the Zhambyl region of Kazakhstan, which just borders on the Almaty region in the Kurdai region.

Soldiers on the Almaty-Bishkek highway searched cars and deteined all citizens of Kyrgyzstan who were returning to their homeland.  Special means and torture were used, with flagrant violations of human rights.

In the meantime, the northern part of the Almaty region with a pool of railway stations and an airfield in Zhetygen, as well as three transport arcs, fell out of attention and official information flows.  On these arcs (the Taraz-Khorgos autobahn, the Almaty-Taldykorgan autobahn and the Turksib railway line), work was provided by the curfew and movement could only be carried out by military transport.

Thus, you can guess, there was realised redeployment of Russian troops to Kazakhstan, while the CSTO's contingent was demonstrating its own limited quantity. Also, it's understandable enough mass deliveries of weapons at same time period to the providing logistical support on the case of any possible conflict with external power on this direction.

If you may be know, there were spontanious explosions of ammunition depots in Arys railway station in Zhambyl region of Kazakhstan in June 26, 2019. Kazakh army lost own huge combat reserve then, what would have passed into the wrong hands if actived either talibs or PLA or both in the frame common interests in the region of Central Asia or some Kazaks' crowds could be so smart to grab this against so-called Elder Brother how Russia was named in the Soviet period.

By the way, I'm sure that you are familier with "The Grate Game" by Peter Hopkirk (1992). I think it has some a very clear background on historical material for possible clashes in the "land lock" region.

Second, Kazakhstani society has different strata since last years of USSR (before it was impossible). And decades by decades after the independance date to that strata added new ones from new generations and migrants without memory on the Soviet paradigma and previous historical context. It transformed to a multi-level apple pie where no one really knows now what a thread is connected to what hands.

Other words, there is an opportunity when so-called Kazakh nationalists who are applying openly their anti-Russian position can be ruled by the net of pro-Russian special coordinators who are working since Soviet time in the region.

To understand what happened in the beginning of last January you should study what was realised in Malovodnoye Village in 17-19 March 2007 and in Masanchi Village in 7-8 February 2020. It were events like trainings in organizational context for the future big event in Almaty in the begining of the last January. But, more correctly, for the big event like a red herring for global needs in the current time.

Trird. So, this part of this review will be about Russia-Ukraine war. There are a lot of aspect which should be analized in the frame of this observation. I hope I will grab all key point what are so important to see this huge picture or the chess board.

Leaping ahead, I will say that there is an informal message for former heads of Soviet collective farms of Zhambyl district of Almaty region of Kazakhstan (where I have a small land plot with a modest house) and their followers to expand crop areas and pastures in Kazakhstan. As you may be know (I hope, The Economist for the May 21st-27th 2022 will help you in this context), the Ukranian operation for Russia is not only the the try for the revanche to rebuild USSR 2.0 on the new agenda and challenge. Implicitly, there will be rising price for energy and food.

So, if you may be know neithe the modern Ukranian nation, not modern national or nationalism trends in Kazakhstan or other Caucasian and Central Asian countries are somehow important for Russia now.

Because, to be objective, putting aside all these tales about human rights, by the right of the winner on 1/6 of the planet's land (and, after all, it is difficult to judge the winners, even after a long time), the Russian Empire had the right to establish the power of governors in the provinces.

No one of us has serious facilities to resist to Russian millitary machine. Kazakh state army is the poor version of only one Russian millitary division. But, at the same time, pro-Russian agents' net very actively holds the provacation activity for the reason of future "false flag" if it will be need.

Modern Kazakhs are ill by nationalism idea. Much more then civil level. So, through agents who are specialized on "holy wars" technologies in socisl networkings some issues influent on some Kazakh testy monds. In its turn, such annoying factors push Kazakhs to active hate and aggressive actions against Russians in Kazakhstan.

Moreover, there are groups of Kazakhs who were prepared or educated in the Soviet time and now they or their offspring are supporters of Kazakh national interests in public sphere. Such key people demonstrate their active anti-Russian position. But, in fact, they can be agents of influence to notice who what thoughts has in circles of people with active live position. This activity is harmonised with other aspects in the frame of "false flag".

Not always and not all of them are literally provocateurs. But, any time special structures can find pressure levers for them. Of course, support of Ukrane now with "Slava Ukraine!" is like "freedom for Angela Davis!" trend for them in Soviet time.

But, the structure of the society saved mechanisms from the Soviet times not only in army, police and secret servises. With the first pressing action and loud statements in pro-Russian context, all ordinary Kazakhs will support official position, if organized it enough good. And there are enough jails or reasons too much for intimidation for freeminds.

Wherein, one part of Kazakhs always is ready to pick up property from other much more succesful part. This is a eternal fear for riches once to be poor here. Thus, the Ukraine case is such a simillar to litmus test. Moreover, open supporters of Ukraine are either extras, populists or povacators, because the situation has such an ambiguous context.

Some additional information on modern Ukranian and modern Kazakh population for compare: 

After the USSR's collapse both countries rised its popularion through migrants and latent support for new ethnic generation against last Soviets.

Ukraine's population rised through migrants of Poland, Romania, Hungary, Moldova and several post-Soviet Republics, and Kazakhstan's rised through Mongolia, China, Uzbekistan and its part Karakalpakstan.

Both countries have a small percentage of those who knows and remember Soviet secrets and who owns real power above communities. It's simillar to situation with Noah's ark. Its enough to safe only the key active structural population in contact to be sure in success. Another word, "flooding" heppened in Ukraine and there were a lot of hopes on sweeming to an analog of Ararat mountain. In Kazakhstan any messages about possible "flooding" are under Criminal Code till now.

Fourth. About me. Me, as a classical journalist have and saved till now communication contact with any parts of Kazakhstani society (by the way, it has different meaning against Kazakh society. Kazakhstani society mesns both - Russian and Kazakh parts). Moreover, as an alamnus of EfJ (English for journalists) program with support from US Embassy and British Council, I like to be over the situation.

It gives me a possibility to look at the deep roots of events. Of course, from human position I'm against any victims and demolotion. But as a professional analist I need to see to the deep and dark context as well.

In professional journalism context I can't to be biased. May be because of this I'm often such an objectionable one for pro-Russian, pro-Ukrainian, pro-Kazakh environment.