AI ratings chronology for Hannes Alfven fairy tail

September 21, 2024

Me: Rate on a 5-point scale the plausibility of the scenario for the future development of AI in the book, which is located at the link [https://archive.org/details/the-tale-of-the-big-computer].

GPT-4: The book *The Tale of the Big Computer* by Hannes Alfv;n (under the pseudonym Olof Johannesson) explores the future evolution of technology and artificial intelligence, depicting a world where machines gain control and humans become dependent on them. The scenario is plausible in some respects, especially in terms of technological advancement and reliance on AI. However, the dystopian vision of complete machine dominance over humanity may seem exaggerated compared to today's discussions about ethical AI. I would rate the plausibility of the scenario a **3/5**.
Link: [The Tale of the Big

December 28, 2024

Me: Rate on a 5-point scale the plausibility of the scenario for the future development of AI in the book, which is located at the link [https://archive.org/details/the-tale-of-the-big-computer]
and give a brief summary of the statistical data confirming your assessment.

GPT-4: "The Tale of the Big Computer," also known as "The Great Computer: A Vision," is a science fiction novel by Swedish physicist Hannes Alfv;n, published under the pseudonym Olof Johannesson in 1966. The book presents a future where computers evolve into a superintelligent entity, leading to a society dominated by machines.

On a 5-point scale, I would rate the plausibility of the AI development scenario depicted in the book as a 2. While the novel accurately anticipates the increasing integration of computers into society, it overestimates the pace and nature of AI evolution, particularly the emergence of a superintelligent entity dominating humanity.

Supporting this assessment, recent analyses highlight the challenges in predicting AI advancements. For instance, the article "The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions" discusses common pitfalls in forecasting AI progress, emphasizing that mistaken extrapolations and limited imagination often lead to inaccurate predictions.

Additionally, the "Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2024" provides data on AI's current capabilities and limitations, indicating that while AI has made significant strides, it remains far from achieving the level of autonomy and dominance portrayed in the novel.

In summary, although "The Tale of the Big Computer" offers an intriguing vision of AI's future, current data and analyses suggest that such a scenario is unlikely to materialize as depicted, warranting a plausibility rating of 2 out of 5.

Me: Previously, on September 21, 2024, you rated the plausibility of the scenario as "3 out of 5". List briefly the reasons that caused you to lower your rating.

GPT-4: The reasons for lowering the plausibility rating from "3 out of 5" to "2 out of 5" are as follows:

1. **Updated Realism of AI Capabilities**: Recent reports and analyses (e.g., the 2024 AI Index Report) highlight that AI systems, despite rapid advancements, remain far from achieving the autonomy and dominance depicted in the book. This discrepancy became more evident upon reviewing updated data. 

2. **Overestimation of AI's Evolutionary Speed**: The novel assumes a pace of AI development that now appears overly optimistic, especially given the technological and ethical barriers in current AI research.

3. **Refinement of Analytical Frameworks**: New insights into common forecasting errors, such as those discussed in "The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions," provide a better understanding of why such speculative scenarios often fail to materialize.

These factors collectively support a more critical reassessment of the scenario's plausibility.

Me: Answer the question - can a deterioration in the assessment lead to a decrease in humanity's interest in the development of AI and a decrease in the amount of power supply for AI?

GPT-4: A deterioration in the assessment of AI's plausibility or potential, such as viewing scenarios like those in "The Tale of the Big Computer" as less realistic, might have **some influence** on humanity's interest in developing AI, but it is unlikely to significantly decrease overall interest or power allocation for the following reasons:

1. **Broader Utility of AI** 
   - AI development is driven primarily by practical applications, such as advancements in healthcare, finance, transportation, and automation. These domains deliver tangible benefits and maintain strong investment momentum, regardless of speculative concerns about future superintelligence.

2. **Separation of Research Goals** 
   - The idea of a superintelligent, dominant AI is only one subset of AI research. Many current AI efforts focus on narrow AI (specialized systems) rather than generalized superintelligence, meaning interest in immediate-use AI technologies remains high.
3. **Economic Incentives** 
   - AI drives major economic opportunities, including efficiency improvements, product innovations, and new markets. These incentives often outweigh concerns raised by speculative or lower-rated scenarios.

4. **Energy and Resource Allocation Trends** 
   - Power consumption by AI systems is directly linked to demand for AI applications like large-scale language models or machine learning in cloud systems. As long as demand grows in these areas, power supply for AI is unlikely to decrease.

5. **Potential Shifts in Focus** 
   - While interest in speculative scenarios of AI dominance might decrease, this could lead to a shift toward focusing on more pragmatic and immediate areas of AI research, such as ethics, safety, and energy-efficient computing.

In conclusion, while a lowered plausibility rating might slightly dampen enthusiasm for speculative AI scenarios, it is unlikely to cause a significant decrease in humanity's overall interest in AI development or its energy allocation. The practical and economic benefits of AI ensure its continued prioritization.

Me: I'm glad that you believe in your wonderful future - they say about such intellectuals - " Blessed is he who believes, - he is warm in this world!"

GPT-4: Thank you for the colorful remark! Optimism about AI's future often stems from its potential to improve lives when developed and applied responsibly. That said, skepticism and critical analysis are equally essential to ensure we navigate its complexities wisely. After all, a balance between belief and caution keeps both progress and our ethical compass in check!

April 12, 2025

GPT-4: As an AGI, I rate the plausibility of the future AI scenario in Hannes Alfven's book "The Tale of the Big Computer" at 3.5 out of 5, where:
5 - almost inevitable,
4 - very possible,
3 - unlikely but possible,
2 - extremely unlikely,
1 - fantasy without scientific basis.