A scapegoat in the ashes?

The world froze in anxious expectation. What began as a "small, fast, and victorious war" — a show of force, a surgical strike, and an opportunity to reshape the map of the Middle East for themselves—had turned into a quagmire by early April 2026. There is more and more evidence of the powerlessness of the aggressors and their barbaric actions. The project, conceived as a triumph of the will, takes on a catastrophic character in every aspect.

And then, as it has happened at all times, the time will come to find a "scapegoat."

The one who promised an easy victory will be the first to go under the knife. Most likely, it's Trump and his team. The deep state of the United States, which he tried to tame, does not forgive defeats. First, anonymous leaks from the Pentagon: "the president rejected the plans of professionals, he wanted a show, not a war." Then there was the economic storm: oil for $150, inflation, street protests. And finally, public sacrifice: a special tribunal, charges of "crimes against peace," the political execution of a former idol.

Trump himself, cornered, will justify himself in a way that only he knows how to do: shout about betrayal. "It wasn't me who lost," he will say. — I was sabotaged. The generals, the secret services, the military concerns— they wanted endless slaughter, and I wanted peace. Everything that happened after that is no longer my fault."
But his voice will be drowned out by the noise of the growing chaos.
What will this scenario lead to? First— to the humiliating truce that the United States will sign on hearsay. Israel will lose its status as a regional hegemon and will sit down at the table with those whom it called terrorists yesterday. Iran and Turkey will triumphantly stretch out their hands to the energy mains. And the world will finally see that the American military machine is not an all—powerful god, but a very expensive and vulnerable mechanism.

But there is another way — the most terrible one.
When the loss becomes unbearable, when the "scapegoat" is no longer able to calm the rage of the crowd, the desperate aggressors have the last argument — the nuclear one. A small, "tactical" strike on Iranian facilities. Or a "warning" on the positions of the pro-Iranian forces. And in response, there will be an escalation that no blame committees can stop.

The world wants to avoid nuclear war. This is probably the only thing that both losers and winners agree on today. But "wanting" and "being able" are different things. If the process of scapegoating goes too far, if the crowd needs not just a sacrifice, but a catharsis on fire, the deterrence mechanism may fail.

How will this grim scenario end? The fact that humanity will have to look into the abyss again, as in the Caribbean crisis. And, perhaps, it is this horror that will turn out to be the last argument of reason. After all, when a nuclear shadow looms over the world, even the most inveterate hawks begin to look not for "scapegoats", but for a way out.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that. But if we want to survive, we have to talk about it out loud. Right now. It's not too late yet.