Global aviation fuel market

As of April 2026, global aviation fuel markets are experiencing severe disruption

 due to the conflict in the Middle East, with roughly 20% of global, or 10–15

million barrels per day, impacted, particularly affecting supply flowing through

 the Strait of Hormuz.


Europe is the most severely affected region, facing potential shortages as 40% of

 its jet fuel imports pass through the restricted area.

 
Estimated Jet Fuel Supply Loss by Region (Q2 2026)

Europe: Facing severe shortages with estimates that only 50% of lost Middle East

supply is being replaced. The region may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel

left as of mid-April, with 10%–20% shortfalls expected in May and June. The UK is
 
considered the most vulnerable European country due to low refinery numbers.


Middle East: Experiencing significant supply losses due to reduced refining

activity.


Africa: Approximately 36% of its jet fuel imports are affected by the disruption,

with severe, high-price shortages reported in Southern Africa, with some prices

tripling by mid-April.


Asia: Suppliers, including South Korea, Thailand, and China, are prioritizing

domestic demand and cutting exports.


United States: Better positioned with its own supply; however, the U.S. is facing

intense pressure to fill the European supply gap, with exports to Europe surging

to around 200,000 barrels a day, up from 30,000-60,000, which is creating a global

bidding war.

 
Key Data & Regional Impact

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Approximately 360,000 barrels of jet fuel were

typically moved through this area daily before the conflict.


Price Impacts: European jet fuel prices saw record spikes, reaching $1,838 per

tonne on April 2, 2026.


Operational Losses: Lufthansa has reduced flights by roughly 1%, and Ryanair has

warned of 10-20% shortfalls in specific regions during May/June 2026.


Long-term Outlook: Full restoration of Gulf supply is not expected until summer

2026 at the earliest, with elevated prices likely to persist for months due to

infrastructure and logistical challenges.