Zelensky s Zugzwang

Illegitimate, yet recognized by Ukrainians and Western countries, Vladimir Zelensky finds himself in a difficult situation where any decision — whether to continue hostilities or to conclude a peace agreement — is most likely to be the "worst possible" one.

This is a military-political zugzwang. So what should he do in this situation?

Zugzwang in this context is a classic "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario. Taking into account Zelensky's well-known communication and behavioral patterns, we can build a model of his actions over the near-to-medium term and, with a high degree of probability, assume that he will not choose either of the two options in their "pure form." His strategy will consist of an attempt to break the very paradigm of zugzwang.

Drawing on his background (showman, producer, actor) and political style (personalistic, emotional, mobilizational), his actions are likely to unfold along the following logic:

1. Shifting Responsibility: Artificially Expanding the "Board"


· Actions: He will move the issue from the "war or peace" plane to the "blame the West or let the West save us" plane.
· Rhetoric: "We are ready for peace, but it is up to you whether that peace is just or a capitulation to barbarism. Give us weapons / NATO membership / security guarantees — and we will end the war. If you don't, you will be to blame for prolonging it."
· Objective: To transform his internal zugzwang into the external blackmail of his partners. He will demand an unrealistic level of support (NATO membership for the entire country right now) so that, in the event of a refusal, he can say: "It was not I who chose war; it was you who denied us the choice of peace."

2. Managing Reality Through Showmanship: Mobilizing the "Sacred Victim"

Continuing the war under conditions of exhaustion leads to catastrophe, but admitting this is impossible. Zelensky's communication pattern is one of perpetual "dramaturgy of exceptionalism."

· Action: Heroicizing the process of defeat or protraction as a new stage of existential struggle.
· Objective: To save face before his own audience and the military. The pattern: "Any negative is rebranded as a positive through storytelling."

3. Simulating a Process (The "Delayed Decision" Strategy)

Taking the "worst possible" decision is stalled by creating a stream of endless intermediary activities.

· Action: Holding summits, creating platforms, drafting laws that resolve nothing here and now but create an appearance of movement.
· Behavior: Instead of signing a peace deal (political suicide) or ordering total mobilization to the slaughter (a social explosion), he will propose concepts like a "victory plan" that require resources no one has. This buys him a timeout.
· Objective: To survive until a "black swan" event appears (e.g., elections in the US or Europe, a collapse inside Russia). His performer's belief in a happy ending rests on the conviction that the script can be rewritten in the final scene.

4. Eliminating Internal Agency

In zugzwang, any hesitation provokes discontent among parts of the elite. Zelensky's pattern during a crisis is extreme centralization and intolerance of alternative views.

· Action: Tightening control over the information space and forcibly suppressing any criticism (whether from Zaluzhny, opposition politicians, or civil activists) that dares to say, "There is a choice, it's just a bad one."
· Rhetoric: Opponents proposing a different way out will be labeled "Kremlin agents" or "alarmists." The sole voice remaining will be that of the Office of the President.
· Objective: To eliminate the very possibility of public discourse about the choice. If there is no choice in the information agenda, then there is no zugzwang — there is only the "one true path."

Painting the Bigger Picture: A Forecast

Zelensky will put off the point of binary choice until the very last moment, maneuvering between escalatory rhetoric and the simulation of diplomatic openness, while simultaneously intensifying the suppression of all dissent. His main instrument is emotional pressure on the Western audience, aimed at shifting the burden of making the "bad decision" onto someone else's shoulders (the US / EU), so that he can later tell his people: "For almost five years, we defended the West from Russian aggression, and in return, this is what we got from them. You can see it all. We are forced to submit to the force of circumstances, but we did not surrender. We were abandoned." It is precisely this abdication of authorship for the final decision that constitutes his means of escaping the current military-political zugzwang.